The Rays are entering the third month of this 2011 season with some fairly obvious question marks throughout the ball club. What are we going to do with Wade Davis? Will Alex Cobb handle the pressure? The shortstop situation is one that appeared temporarily remedied, only to be undone by an Elliot Johnson injury. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are not delivering the type of defense, let alone offense, to give the pitching staff the backing we've become accustomed to. However, I don't care to freak out over that, I'm hoping Reid's slumping bat will wake up, or Sean's defense will come around, or Elliot Johnson gets healthy, or hell, maybe the front office goes big and hooks a Jose Reyes. There's youth at that position, and therefore a reason for legitimate optimism.
A more gloomy topic for the Rays is their catching.
Many a-heated discussion has erupted over the streakiness of certain players early this season (i.e. Sam Fuld, Davis, Jeff Niemann, Casey Kotchman), often pushing certain players into polarizing figures for Tampa Bay diehards. Amongst this bluster is the outstandingly-streaky defensive performance of Kelly Shoppach. Mr. Shoppach had not been a particularly valuable defensive commodity since 2007, but this season he has managed to climb his way to the top of the leaderboards in CS%, gunning down 54% of would-be base stealers and causing rave reviews in Rays Nation. Coupling this with Shop's otherworldly 0.045 WP+PB/G and you have one of the finest defensive catchers in baseball. Conversely, the angst towards John Jaso and his defense has become nearly irrational.
Jaso's 2011 CS% is down 5% from last season (23 vs. 18), but neither number is particularly strong when compared to the 29% MLB average. But perhaps this has been because of who Jaso has caught as opposed to his actual (in)abilities. In the 28.2 innings Jaso and Jeff Niemann hooked up for this season, base stealers were successful nine of ten times. That right there is one-third of the thefts allowed by Jaso this season. Jeff's inability to hold runners is world renown after allowing 21 of 23 stolen base attempts to succeed last season, and he holds a 16% CS% lifetime. Naturally, in just 2.2 frames in which Niemann and Shoppach teamed up in 2011, Shop had one CS, zero SB allowed. Little tidbits like that one precisely typify the streakiness (sample size caveats) of the seasons the two are having behind the plate. Jaso's WP+PB/G last season was a touch above league average at 0.463, this season that number is nearly doubled. Much of this is on the strength of the 12 wild pitches that have been thrown on his watch, which appear to be clustering on Jaso's ledger disproportionately. It may seem like I'm making excuses for Jaso, and it's because I am. My point is a two-pronged one though: 1.) John Jaso is an average to below average catcher, defensively and 2.) Sample sizes are too small to be this angry. Realistically, there is not enough MLB data to quantify Jaso's defensive contributions, and Shop is just plain hot right now. Expect regression.
The other half of their games, their offense, is far easier to quantify.
Fangraphs tells me that Jaso has an 87 wRC+ and Shoppach has a 40 wRC+. While relying on a single quick and dirty number is inherently flawed, the size of the disparity really negates any discussion about the hitting prowess of the two, in relation to each other. With Jaso, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. His BB% was remarkably high last season, but not entirely out of whack with prior minor league numbers. This season's 7.9% BB% would be Jaso's lowest walk rate at any level, since his first professional season in 2006. Nothing is readily jumping out in his O-Swing/Z-Swing% vs. his O-Contact/Z-Contact% this season, except that he is swinging at more balls out of the zone, possibly meaning that the 27-year old is pressing a bit to match last season's output. His 90.9% contact rate and 4.18 pitches per plate appearances, both team highs, provide value in themselves, and on a team that is using Evan Longoria to leadoff, it seems all too obvious that Jaso should be in that slot. In the land of Friedman and Maddon nothing is obvious and I've learned to stop asking questions and let the genius flow. Jaso's wRC+ is slightly below league average for his position, but I'm optimistic he can make up the ground with the stick faster than with the glove. Shoppach's offensive line is a disaster. He has two XBH in 77 ABs this season, both of which were home runs. His K% has been preposterously high his entire career, so the fact that he's striking out 40% of the time this season is not necessarily cringe-worthy. However, the incline in his swinging strike rate over the last two years might be. I just don't know what to realistically expect from the 31-year old at this point. But I think it nigh time for the Rays to address the situation.
The solution to the problem may be in Durham.
Jose Lobaton is taking care of business at Triple-A. After dropping a .260/.339/.385 last season, Lobaton is now producing a .324/.412/.559 line. These numbers are out of line with his track record. This isn't to say that the 26-year old is or is not legitimate. And for the sake of this argument I don't care to justify his presence on the big league club solely on a couple months of hot minor league hitting. Rather, taking a look at his 2010 MLE numbers at ML Splits here, and realizing that he'd be the right-handed half of the parent club's current platoon, it's tough to understand why he's being kept down. His Major League equivalent numbers against lefties last season were a solid .288/.316/.388. His split against southpaws this season (raw Triple-A numbers, not MLE) is .371/.436/.571.
The apparent justification for Shoppach's presence on the roster entering 2011 was the $3.3 million owed to him. His hot glove seems to be enough to keep Rays' brass satisfied, but at what cost? 0.1 WAR? Really? Shoppach's MLB service time could prevent a designation for assignment to the minors, if he is unwilling to accept it. The chances of him clearing waivers are another concern, considering the amount of moolah on the line, but certainly an outright release for a player with his numbers would not be unheard of.
So tying everything together and looking forward, expect a minor rebound in Jaso's offensive numbers and understand that he's probably never going to become a defensive wizard, so stop complaining about it. Just except the fact that he's a decent young catcher, who should get some more looks at leadoff. Kelly Shoppach's days as a Ray should be numbered, in sync to the number of days that Jose Lobaton remains at Triple-A.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
A Tale of Two Johnsons
The setting: Opening Day 2011, Tropicana Field. For one player, it was indeed the best of times. Dan Johnson had left spring training as the starting first baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays. For another guy, things weren't as defined. Yet it would be a stretch of any imagination to call it the "worst of times" for one Elliot Johnson. Johnson, who'd only gotten a September call up in 2008, was happy to at least be breaking camp on the 25-man roster. But with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez platooning at shortstop, his chances of getting substantial playing time were dismal. Dan Johnson would rock a double in his very first at-bat of the fresh season, while Elliot would have to sit back and be patient, waiting for his opportunities, if and when they came.
Flash forward. Here we are, less than two months into the 2011 campaign and we've seen the rise of Elliot and the fall of Dan; one moved up to a starter and the other, jettisoned back to Durham.
In a bit of Dickensian foreshadowing, certain events may have given incite to these specific trajectories before either man ever took the field in 2011.
Dan Johnson, known best for his late inning heroics against Boston in 2008 and 2010, was handed the starting role at first base with the departure of Carlos Pena. Many fans and critics looked no further than Dan Johnson when excluding the Rays from playoff contention in 2011. But thanks to a guileful maneuver by Andrew Friedman, we didn't have to settle for an entire season of the DanJo Experience. In a shrewd move, an unheralded one at the time, the Rays' GM signed veteran 1B Casey Kotchman to a minor league deal over the winter. Naturally, Kotchman blistered the Grapefruit League during spring training to the tune of a .354/.415/.521 triple-slash. However, the team stuck to their plan and went with Dan Johnson to start the season. And Dan did get that double in his first AB. But unfortunately for Dan, and the team, he was only able to swat one additional extra base hit over his next 77 at-bats. Granted, that other XBH was a big home run that helped the Rays get off their season-opening six-game skid, Dan's flare for the dramatic wouldn't be enough to justify his roster spot, and thus he was designated for assignment on May 20th. In his stead, Kotchman brings a much slicker glove and a bat that has been crazy hot. Casey has parlayed his formidable Spring output into a regular season line of .349/.415/.443 with a more-than-healthy .379 wOBA aka a 145 wRC+. While his numbers will be difficult to maintain going forward, Joe Maddon and the Rays have made a firm decision to ride the hot hand. Or at least be wise enough to sit their cold players.
In the "Cold Rays Hitters" department, perhaps none have been buried in the frigid depths of a slumping bat more than Reid Brignac this season. In fact, a quick glance over at fangraphs.com, and we see that of the 32 Major League shortstops to log at least 100 plate appearances in 2011, Reid is the worst of the lot according to WAR. In fact, by this metric, Reid's performance has cost the team nearly an entire win so far this season. He's done this by virtue of his poor bat (5 wRC+) as well as through negative contributions in the field and on the basepaths. Reid's oft discussed approach and his lack of production have forced Maddon to explore other options.
Enter Elliot Johnson. The man may not be a cure-all for the Rays offensive woes, but when you're marching out the worst shortstop in baseball, nearly any positive-net contribution from the position is welcomed. Unlike Brignac, Johnson was never a Baseball America top-100 prospect. Instead, Johnson, who is now 26 years old, has been a minor-league grinder. He's played parts of ten professional seasons within the Rays (nee Devil Rays) organization, with stops at virtually every level and farm outpost since signing out of high school back in 2002. At one point, Johnson was further along in the Rays' farm system but thanks to a disastrous 2007 season at Durham, Brignac was able to leapfrog him for "Shortstop of the Future" billing. The two split time at Triple-A Durham during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, waiting to take over for Jason Bartlett. Interestingly enough, and for the purposes of this piece, their numbers while playing together for those two seasons provided a curious bit of "foreshadowing" as to their current situations.
2008:
2009:
All stats are courtesy of fangraphs.com.
What the numbers tell us, is that the two players are very similar. Both have similar plate discipline, or rather poor plate discipline. Speed is comparable, but edge Johnson. Johnson also has the edge in power over the two seasons. Both got called up in late 2008, neither was able to impress. However, due to his pedigree as a top prospect and scouts considering him a smooth fielder, Brignac was given another brief opportunity in 2009. During this time, Reid used a high BABIP (.349) to impress Rays' brass in route to a .278/.301/.444 in 90 ABs, solidifying him sizable playing time in 2010. With Bartlett still around, Brignac was deployed at second base more often than short in 2010 and his bat pushed out average, if not solid numbers for a middle infielder, especially for a rookie. His fielding potential as a big leaguer may have been a tad overstated, but based on the fact that he's only logged around 850 innings at short, his -0.3 UZR (-0.1 USR/150), doesn't give me the feeling that he's a bust with the glove.
Meanwhile, Elliot Johnson's 2010 saw him post his best showing for the Triple-A Bulls. Becoming a bit more selective at the plate, Johnson sacrificed some power but posted higher numbers nearly across the board, producing a .319/.375/.475 line. Of course, if Triple-A numbers were an exact predictor of MLB performance, we'd have expected a MVP-caliber season from DanJo. Regardless, with Brignac's slide into the depths of a slump, Elliot's emergence has been a shot in the arm to an offense that has appeared punchless at times this season. In Elliot's 14 starts at short this season he's mustered a respectable .260 BA, while slugging .478, including a three-game barrage from May 15-18, where he went 5-for-10 with a pair of homers and a triple to go along with his three runs scored and five driven in.
The Rays have been an amazingly streaky team with the stick this season, but Maddon and crew have weathered storm after storm, riding the hottest hand available to them. Where one door has closed, another man with a glove is shuttled into an opening door. Dan Johnson may never become the hitter that has been so alluring in his late-game heroics, but the savvy Rays' management had already took a preemptive strike against the possibility of his shortcomings. And in a farm system deep with shortstops (See: Hak-Ju Lee, Tim Beckham, Derek Dietrich) keeping a 26-year old career minor leaguer around may have seemed foolhardy, but again Andrew Friedman and Co. have made their bread and butter on building ungodly depth of talent at premium positions. While regression seems inevitable from Kotchman, there's no reason to think that the Rays won't have another hot bat to take up the slack if and when the time comes. A Tale of Two Johnsons is simply another feather in Friedman's cap.
Flash forward. Here we are, less than two months into the 2011 campaign and we've seen the rise of Elliot and the fall of Dan; one moved up to a starter and the other, jettisoned back to Durham.
In a bit of Dickensian foreshadowing, certain events may have given incite to these specific trajectories before either man ever took the field in 2011.
Dan Johnson, known best for his late inning heroics against Boston in 2008 and 2010, was handed the starting role at first base with the departure of Carlos Pena. Many fans and critics looked no further than Dan Johnson when excluding the Rays from playoff contention in 2011. But thanks to a guileful maneuver by Andrew Friedman, we didn't have to settle for an entire season of the DanJo Experience. In a shrewd move, an unheralded one at the time, the Rays' GM signed veteran 1B Casey Kotchman to a minor league deal over the winter. Naturally, Kotchman blistered the Grapefruit League during spring training to the tune of a .354/.415/.521 triple-slash. However, the team stuck to their plan and went with Dan Johnson to start the season. And Dan did get that double in his first AB. But unfortunately for Dan, and the team, he was only able to swat one additional extra base hit over his next 77 at-bats. Granted, that other XBH was a big home run that helped the Rays get off their season-opening six-game skid, Dan's flare for the dramatic wouldn't be enough to justify his roster spot, and thus he was designated for assignment on May 20th. In his stead, Kotchman brings a much slicker glove and a bat that has been crazy hot. Casey has parlayed his formidable Spring output into a regular season line of .349/.415/.443 with a more-than-healthy .379 wOBA aka a 145 wRC+. While his numbers will be difficult to maintain going forward, Joe Maddon and the Rays have made a firm decision to ride the hot hand. Or at least be wise enough to sit their cold players.
In the "Cold Rays Hitters" department, perhaps none have been buried in the frigid depths of a slumping bat more than Reid Brignac this season. In fact, a quick glance over at fangraphs.com, and we see that of the 32 Major League shortstops to log at least 100 plate appearances in 2011, Reid is the worst of the lot according to WAR. In fact, by this metric, Reid's performance has cost the team nearly an entire win so far this season. He's done this by virtue of his poor bat (5 wRC+) as well as through negative contributions in the field and on the basepaths. Reid's oft discussed approach and his lack of production have forced Maddon to explore other options.
Enter Elliot Johnson. The man may not be a cure-all for the Rays offensive woes, but when you're marching out the worst shortstop in baseball, nearly any positive-net contribution from the position is welcomed. Unlike Brignac, Johnson was never a Baseball America top-100 prospect. Instead, Johnson, who is now 26 years old, has been a minor-league grinder. He's played parts of ten professional seasons within the Rays (nee Devil Rays) organization, with stops at virtually every level and farm outpost since signing out of high school back in 2002. At one point, Johnson was further along in the Rays' farm system but thanks to a disastrous 2007 season at Durham, Brignac was able to leapfrog him for "Shortstop of the Future" billing. The two split time at Triple-A Durham during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, waiting to take over for Jason Bartlett. Interestingly enough, and for the purposes of this piece, their numbers while playing together for those two seasons provided a curious bit of "foreshadowing" as to their current situations.
2008:
| wOBA | ISO | BB% | K% | Spd | ||
| Brignac | .311 | .162 | 6.5 | 26.4 | 4.8 | |
| E. Johnson | .336 | .163 | 7.7 | 26.9 | 6.7 |
2009:
| wOBA | ISO | BB% | K% | Spd | ||
| Brignac | .329 | .135 | 6.0 | 16.6 | 3.8 | |
| E. Johnson | .345 | .189 | 6.5 | 24.0 | 5.1 |
All stats are courtesy of fangraphs.com.
What the numbers tell us, is that the two players are very similar. Both have similar plate discipline, or rather poor plate discipline. Speed is comparable, but edge Johnson. Johnson also has the edge in power over the two seasons. Both got called up in late 2008, neither was able to impress. However, due to his pedigree as a top prospect and scouts considering him a smooth fielder, Brignac was given another brief opportunity in 2009. During this time, Reid used a high BABIP (.349) to impress Rays' brass in route to a .278/.301/.444 in 90 ABs, solidifying him sizable playing time in 2010. With Bartlett still around, Brignac was deployed at second base more often than short in 2010 and his bat pushed out average, if not solid numbers for a middle infielder, especially for a rookie. His fielding potential as a big leaguer may have been a tad overstated, but based on the fact that he's only logged around 850 innings at short, his -0.3 UZR (-0.1 USR/150), doesn't give me the feeling that he's a bust with the glove.
Meanwhile, Elliot Johnson's 2010 saw him post his best showing for the Triple-A Bulls. Becoming a bit more selective at the plate, Johnson sacrificed some power but posted higher numbers nearly across the board, producing a .319/.375/.475 line. Of course, if Triple-A numbers were an exact predictor of MLB performance, we'd have expected a MVP-caliber season from DanJo. Regardless, with Brignac's slide into the depths of a slump, Elliot's emergence has been a shot in the arm to an offense that has appeared punchless at times this season. In Elliot's 14 starts at short this season he's mustered a respectable .260 BA, while slugging .478, including a three-game barrage from May 15-18, where he went 5-for-10 with a pair of homers and a triple to go along with his three runs scored and five driven in.
The Rays have been an amazingly streaky team with the stick this season, but Maddon and crew have weathered storm after storm, riding the hottest hand available to them. Where one door has closed, another man with a glove is shuttled into an opening door. Dan Johnson may never become the hitter that has been so alluring in his late-game heroics, but the savvy Rays' management had already took a preemptive strike against the possibility of his shortcomings. And in a farm system deep with shortstops (See: Hak-Ju Lee, Tim Beckham, Derek Dietrich) keeping a 26-year old career minor leaguer around may have seemed foolhardy, but again Andrew Friedman and Co. have made their bread and butter on building ungodly depth of talent at premium positions. While regression seems inevitable from Kotchman, there's no reason to think that the Rays won't have another hot bat to take up the slack if and when the time comes. A Tale of Two Johnsons is simply another feather in Friedman's cap.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Do the Rays Really Have a Shot?
The Rays shocked many by starting the season 0-6, then further floundering to 1-8 record. Certainly the sting wasn't as bad, considering the heavily-favored Red Sox also limped off to the exact same start. Many "experts" immediately sealed the Rays' fate, just nine days into the season. Quite a few were quick to point out that only one team had ever reached the postseason after such a disastrous start: the 1995 Cincinnati Reds. This nifty bit of info was used more to prevent Red Sox fans from throwing themselves off rooftops than to qualm the disappointment in the Bay Area.
But I immediately began to question what this actually meant. Were the Ray really dead in the water? Should I stop going to games? Should I burn my Rays merchandise and hide in the house all summer?
The answer was no. More like a hell no. I love my baseball-filled summers. I used those '95 Reds to buoy my faith until the Rays came around. And come around they did. Finishing April with a solid 15-12 mark. In a universe where the MLB playoffs started today, the Rays would be tied for the Wild Card with the Angels. However, there is no such universe, and instead the Rays will play their scheduled 162 games.
The current standings weren't enough to comfort me though. Being the pragmatic stathead that I am, I've raided Baseball-Reference.com to further dissipate any lingering fears that may still be hanging around after that ghastly start. Using BB-ref's play index, I was able to unearth 65 teams that staggered out of the gate with a 1-8 record or worse. The results did little to soothe my worries. Of the 65 teams who started out their season at a 1-8 clip or worse, only seven were able to regain their composure and finish their season above .500. These teams are the 1903 Cincinnati Reds, 1916 New York Giants, 1921 St. Louis Cardinals, 1922 Reds, 1980 Atlanta Braves, 1983 Houston Astros, and of course those 1995 Reds.
Now linked up to these teams, I quickly dove into these seven teams' managers and players as well as their final standings.
A quick profile of the group's manager yielded three Hall of Famers and one surely to be enshrined (1903 Reds' player-manager Joe Kelley, '16 Giants' John McGraw, '21 Cards' Branch Rickey and '80 Braves' Bobby Cox). The other three managers all had career winning percentages above .500; generally speaking, they were winners. Not the types to be hamstrung by a dismal start.
Combing through the seven different rosters, I found that every team benefitted from having at least one Hall of Fame player on their roster. The 1903 Reds had Kelley and 1B Jake Beckley. The '16 Giants had the most HOF-ers, but they contributed the least, as they were either too young (High Pockets Kelly and Edd Roush) or too old (Christy Mathewson). The '21 Cardinals had the legendary Rogers Hornsby and pitcher Jesse Haines. The '22 Reds featured a grown up Roush in their outfield and pitcher Eppa Rixey in their rotation. The '80 Braves and '83 Astros featured timeless hurlers Phil Niekro and Nolan Ryan, respectively. The 1995 Reds had that season's MVP, and likely 2012 HOF inductee, shortstop Barry Larkin.
Already separated from the other teams that were incapable of breaking even after the tough 1-8 start, the results of the seven ranged from the 81-80 1980 Braves back, again, to the '95 Reds' 85-59 record, which gave them a .590 winning percentage during that strike-shortened campaign (side note: the 1921 Cards had the most wins of the group at 87). After each team's first 27 games, only those pestering '95 Reds had amassed the Rays' total of 15 wins, actually going 16-11. The Rays are already ahead of 63 of those teams that started 1-8. A solid point, but this information was inconclusive, at best. While Maddon and our youngsters aren't Hall of Fame-caliber yet, Joe is a smart leader with a pennant already to his name, and it is my firm belief that this team will have multiple Hall of Fame players when it is all said and done.
Moving on, I thought maybe a better comparison could come from within the organization itself. The Rays franchise owns around a handful of 10-game losing streaks, with the most recent one being an 11-game skid that knocked the 2009 Rays out of contention. But those other teams aren't of the same ilk as this team, right?! Last year's AL East champs lost only five in a row, but the '08 pennant winners dropped seven straight. Yet another gratifying point in favor of the 2011 Rays. However, none of those streaks were to kick off a season. Because that means something. Or not.
Taking a small sample size from the front, middle or end of any team's season is a foolhardy approach to statistics, especially as they apply to the marathon that is the MLB's 162-game schedule. And simply stating that because something has not yet happened (or not frequently enough) does not preclude the event from occurring. This idea of beginning a season on losing streak as automatically disqualifying a team from the playoffs has no logical bearings, it's more or less a ploy ESPN likes to throw out there for sheer reaction. I don't recall the Red Sox packing it in after falling down 0-3 in the 2004 ALCS, simply because no team had ever done it before. And in the Rays case, at least one team has done it before.
Still my search for more relevancy and relief continued. Having dispatched with the whole "to start a season" crap, I opened the dragnet up wider, searching for more pertinent information, refining my search to what really matters: the playoffs. So far, the 2011 Rays' longest losing skid has maxed out at just six games. So then what's the longest losing streak by a World Series winner? A pennant winner? A division winner?
A Google search will tell you these answers. The 1953 New York Yankees lost nine straight games but ended up winning the Series. The 1951 New York Giants lost 11 games en route to their NL pennant. The 1982 Atlanta Braves also lost 11 but still managed a postseason spot. These Rays aren't even close to those numbers, but these three teams seem to be outliers.
The picture was starting to come together, but I needed some more numerical convincing. Great data was provided by Baseball Prospectus, but the article seemed to arbitrarily select 1974 as a baseline. Wanting to have a more-leveled field of data, which had to be somewhat quick to compile, I opted to go from 1995 onward. The '95 season was the first season using the current divisional structure, the Wild Card and easily provided me with enough data to run some useful analysis.
Over the last 16 seasons there have been 128 different playoff teams. 96 entered the postseason after winning their division; 32 as a Wild Card. 32 teams obviously won the pennant, with 16 of them winning the World Series. How many of these teams lost at least six games in a row throughout the course of their respective playoff runs? Here's the answers:
Lloyd Christmas from Dumb and Dumber: "So you're telling me there's a chance."
Ahhh, a sigh of relief. And after hours huddled in front of my computer screen, I feel satisfied. Suck on that Baseball Tonight. The hyperbole surrounding their shoddily thrown together tables and charts has likely cost the Rays some ticket sales in the early goings, but I'm here to tell anyone who'll listen that it's not time to bailout on the guys. And if you did prematurely eject, the Rays bandwagoneers are a forgiving bunch and will welcome you back with open arms.
But I immediately began to question what this actually meant. Were the Ray really dead in the water? Should I stop going to games? Should I burn my Rays merchandise and hide in the house all summer?
The answer was no. More like a hell no. I love my baseball-filled summers. I used those '95 Reds to buoy my faith until the Rays came around. And come around they did. Finishing April with a solid 15-12 mark. In a universe where the MLB playoffs started today, the Rays would be tied for the Wild Card with the Angels. However, there is no such universe, and instead the Rays will play their scheduled 162 games.
The current standings weren't enough to comfort me though. Being the pragmatic stathead that I am, I've raided Baseball-Reference.com to further dissipate any lingering fears that may still be hanging around after that ghastly start. Using BB-ref's play index, I was able to unearth 65 teams that staggered out of the gate with a 1-8 record or worse. The results did little to soothe my worries. Of the 65 teams who started out their season at a 1-8 clip or worse, only seven were able to regain their composure and finish their season above .500. These teams are the 1903 Cincinnati Reds, 1916 New York Giants, 1921 St. Louis Cardinals, 1922 Reds, 1980 Atlanta Braves, 1983 Houston Astros, and of course those 1995 Reds.
Now linked up to these teams, I quickly dove into these seven teams' managers and players as well as their final standings.
A quick profile of the group's manager yielded three Hall of Famers and one surely to be enshrined (1903 Reds' player-manager Joe Kelley, '16 Giants' John McGraw, '21 Cards' Branch Rickey and '80 Braves' Bobby Cox). The other three managers all had career winning percentages above .500; generally speaking, they were winners. Not the types to be hamstrung by a dismal start.
Combing through the seven different rosters, I found that every team benefitted from having at least one Hall of Fame player on their roster. The 1903 Reds had Kelley and 1B Jake Beckley. The '16 Giants had the most HOF-ers, but they contributed the least, as they were either too young (High Pockets Kelly and Edd Roush) or too old (Christy Mathewson). The '21 Cardinals had the legendary Rogers Hornsby and pitcher Jesse Haines. The '22 Reds featured a grown up Roush in their outfield and pitcher Eppa Rixey in their rotation. The '80 Braves and '83 Astros featured timeless hurlers Phil Niekro and Nolan Ryan, respectively. The 1995 Reds had that season's MVP, and likely 2012 HOF inductee, shortstop Barry Larkin.
Already separated from the other teams that were incapable of breaking even after the tough 1-8 start, the results of the seven ranged from the 81-80 1980 Braves back, again, to the '95 Reds' 85-59 record, which gave them a .590 winning percentage during that strike-shortened campaign (side note: the 1921 Cards had the most wins of the group at 87). After each team's first 27 games, only those pestering '95 Reds had amassed the Rays' total of 15 wins, actually going 16-11. The Rays are already ahead of 63 of those teams that started 1-8. A solid point, but this information was inconclusive, at best. While Maddon and our youngsters aren't Hall of Fame-caliber yet, Joe is a smart leader with a pennant already to his name, and it is my firm belief that this team will have multiple Hall of Fame players when it is all said and done.
Moving on, I thought maybe a better comparison could come from within the organization itself. The Rays franchise owns around a handful of 10-game losing streaks, with the most recent one being an 11-game skid that knocked the 2009 Rays out of contention. But those other teams aren't of the same ilk as this team, right?! Last year's AL East champs lost only five in a row, but the '08 pennant winners dropped seven straight. Yet another gratifying point in favor of the 2011 Rays. However, none of those streaks were to kick off a season. Because that means something. Or not.
Taking a small sample size from the front, middle or end of any team's season is a foolhardy approach to statistics, especially as they apply to the marathon that is the MLB's 162-game schedule. And simply stating that because something has not yet happened (or not frequently enough) does not preclude the event from occurring. This idea of beginning a season on losing streak as automatically disqualifying a team from the playoffs has no logical bearings, it's more or less a ploy ESPN likes to throw out there for sheer reaction. I don't recall the Red Sox packing it in after falling down 0-3 in the 2004 ALCS, simply because no team had ever done it before. And in the Rays case, at least one team has done it before.
Still my search for more relevancy and relief continued. Having dispatched with the whole "to start a season" crap, I opened the dragnet up wider, searching for more pertinent information, refining my search to what really matters: the playoffs. So far, the 2011 Rays' longest losing skid has maxed out at just six games. So then what's the longest losing streak by a World Series winner? A pennant winner? A division winner?
A Google search will tell you these answers. The 1953 New York Yankees lost nine straight games but ended up winning the Series. The 1951 New York Giants lost 11 games en route to their NL pennant. The 1982 Atlanta Braves also lost 11 but still managed a postseason spot. These Rays aren't even close to those numbers, but these three teams seem to be outliers.
The picture was starting to come together, but I needed some more numerical convincing. Great data was provided by Baseball Prospectus, but the article seemed to arbitrarily select 1974 as a baseline. Wanting to have a more-leveled field of data, which had to be somewhat quick to compile, I opted to go from 1995 onward. The '95 season was the first season using the current divisional structure, the Wild Card and easily provided me with enough data to run some useful analysis.
Over the last 16 seasons there have been 128 different playoff teams. 96 entered the postseason after winning their division; 32 as a Wild Card. 32 teams obviously won the pennant, with 16 of them winning the World Series. How many of these teams lost at least six games in a row throughout the course of their respective playoff runs? Here's the answers:
- Of the 128 teams, 60 (or 47%) lost six or more games consecutively.
- Of the 96 Division winners, 41 (or 43%) lost six or more games consecutively.
- Of the 32 Wild Cards, 19 (or 59%) lost six or more games consecutively.
- Of the 32 League champions, 13 (or 41%) lost six or more games consecutively.
- Of the 16 Worlds Series champions, 7 (or 44%) lost six or more games consecutively.
Lloyd Christmas from Dumb and Dumber: "So you're telling me there's a chance."
Ahhh, a sigh of relief. And after hours huddled in front of my computer screen, I feel satisfied. Suck on that Baseball Tonight. The hyperbole surrounding their shoddily thrown together tables and charts has likely cost the Rays some ticket sales in the early goings, but I'm here to tell anyone who'll listen that it's not time to bailout on the guys. And if you did prematurely eject, the Rays bandwagoneers are a forgiving bunch and will welcome you back with open arms.
Rays Stay Streaky to End April
The Rays rounded out April with a solid 15-12 record, on the strength of 14-4 binge at the end of the month. This is the same team that stumbled out of the gate; dropping eight of their first nine contests to kick off the 2011 campaign.
Before I get death threats from the legions of Fuld fans, let's get one thing straight: I'm not saying that the man is through. I'm just pointing out that Sammy is on an 18 AB break from hitting. He earned that break. Small sizes mean squat, so relax. I'm also encouraged by the fact that while he hasn't got a hit, he has still managed to work five walks in the same "drought". Not to mention that his defense never takes a day off.
The team has already seen its fair share of troubles with Evan Longoria hitting the DL just two games into the season and the bizarre retirement of Manny Ramirez. However, Joe Maddon has rallied the troops around solid starting pitching and timely, if not downright lucky, hitting.
There's been the emergence of the legend that is Sam Fuld. Johnny Damon has ingratiated himself to his new fans with a pair of walk-off hits in a three-day span. And they closed the month in typical Rays fashion: a fortuitous wild pitch from the Angels' Fernando Rodney, that caromed of catcher Hank Conger, sending Matt Joyce bounding home from third with a walk-off win in the tenth inning Saturday.
Joyce exemplifies the turnaround that's infected this group of Rays. When we're good, we're pretty damned good. When we stink, we are almost deserving of playing in the juice box that is Tropicana Field. Joyce along with Damon, Fuld, John Jaso, Ben Zobrist and the other role players have stepped up in the absence of Longo (fingers crossed for a Tuesday return!) providing substantial run support for a pitching staff that has the third best ERA in the AL. But these hitters are hitting in bunches and at times, not at all.
Let's take a look at some of the Rays streakiest bats through April.
The Hot
At the top of the class, and on the heels of his single day heroics that sent statheads scurrying to dig up names like Nate Colbert and Jim Bottomley, is Ben Zobrist. Zorilla stumbled into the season, getting just eight hits in his first 45 at-bats. Since then, he's exploded, becoming a one man wrecking machine. Similarly, Matt Joyce started 2011 going 1-for-20. And like Zobrist, he's gotten himself into a sweet little groove highlighted by scoring both runs in Saturday's walk-off. Damon also started slow, collecting only four hits in his first 32 ABs of 2011, He then immediately started a 16-game hit streak that was snuffed out Friday night. And John Jaso wasn't able to get on base for his first 11 PAs (ridiculously small sample size, I know, bear with me) but has also got it going early in 2011. Add into the mix Casey Kotchman, who was called up from Durham just in time to be a part of the Rays offensive awakening, and you have an offense as potent as any in baseball. Here's the stats, triple slashes with wOBA and ISO, for each man's resurgence:
| BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ISO | |
| Ben Zobrist (Since April 16) | .327 | .356 | .800 | .463 | .473 |
| Matt Joyce (Since April 10) | .379 | .419 | .603 | .438 | .224 |
| Johnny Damon (Since April 11) | .339 | .369 | .548 | .381 | .210 |
| John Jaso (Since April 8) | .289 | .341 | .579 | .387 | .289 |
| Casey Kotchman (Season stats, called up April 8) | .341 | .396 | .455 | .378 | .144 |
Zobrist has already received some due from the national media after Thursday's outpouring of offense. Damon has garnered his fair share of attention with the walk-offs. Slipping under the national radar, and possibly some Rays fans' radars, are the efforts of Joyce, Jaso (he's a fricken catcher) and Kotchman (another feather in Friedman's cap), who are quietly putting together fine seasons and helping the club win.
I'd like to take this time to also point out that both Kotchman and Joyce were born and bred in the Bay Area. It's great to have some hometown kids to root for, especially when they are flat out raking.
The Cold
With the cold we have two types of players: those that were killing it and those that have yet to kill it. Here's the former:
| BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ISO | |
| Sam Fuld (Up until his 1st AB Thurs.) | .354 | .395 | .532 | .409 | .177 |
| Felipe Lopez (Stopping on April 18) | .316 | .350 | .553 | .384 | .237 |
Teamed up with Fuld in the cold (sorry, couldn't help myself) is Felipe Lopez. Playing this year's switch-hitting, utility INF, think Willy Aybar, is Lopez. Lopez is currently in 3-for-31 rut, featuring no extra base hits and a single walk, an intentional pass issued Saturday in order to get to Kelly Shoppach. Lopez will be relieved of his starter's role when Evan comes back, but he has served valiantly in his role thus far and for this I am thankful.
Other member's of "The Cold" are the guys that have yet to get it going. I'm not really interested in ripping Dan Johnson. He's already been benched, but Rays' brass seems to be enthralled with his flare for the dramatic. It's not likely he'll be optioned to Durham in the coming days. Likewise, I have no interest in making a scene at the lack of production from our three young middle infielders; Eliot Johnson's days are already numbered; Sean Rodriguez is nursing a dislocated pinky finger; and Reid Brignac is at least "hustling".
This leaves only Kelly Shoppach.
Shop has had it rough. Advanced sabermetrics aren't required to breakdown his stats. He's 7-for-47, with one XBH and one BB, giving him a regrettable .149/.180/.213 triple-slash line. His primary problem appears to be his strikeouts. After posting a K% of 44.9 last season, he's continued his free-swinging ways in 2011; posting a strikeout rate of 42.6% for 2011. He hasn't made any considerable contributions with the bat since 2008, when he was still in Cleveland. Despite the fact that Kelly has thrown out 50% of would-be base stealers, it may be time to kick the tires on Durham backstop Jose Lobaton, who is shredding Triple-A with .391/.473/.630 line.
The Lukewarm
Melvin Emmanuel Upton still continues to dumbfound the ever-patient fans in St. Pete. Just ask Steve Slowinski. B.J. kicked in the door to the 2011 season by batting .314/.400/.543 through his first 10 games. Then he slumped; wandering off on a 3-for-31 stretch. Now he's apparently found his stroke again. In his last seven games, B.J. has gone 8-for-27 with four walks, a double and a homer. For his last week or so's worth of effort, B.J. has compiled a a reasonable .296/.387/.444 line. This just heightens the enigma that is B.J. Upton. One constant this season has been his walk rate, which is sitting at a healthy 13%.
As with any stats collected during just a month of games, these numbers cannot be used as a predictor of future successes or failures. They're just an interesting insight as to how the Rays were able to go from 1-8 to 15-12. With Longoria's impending return to the lineup, it's nearly impossible for any Rays fan not to get excited as they set out to attack the final five months of the season. Go get your tickets now folks!
Numbers were crunched by yours truly. I used the wOBA calculator provided by Fangraphs here. My spreadsheet is cluttered but viewable here.
Numbers were crunched by yours truly. I used the wOBA calculator provided by Fangraphs here. My spreadsheet is cluttered but viewable here.
Friday, April 29, 2011
The Breakdown: Jeff Niemann vs. Twins, 4/28/11
Jeff Niemann continued his up-and-down 2011 Thursday, taking a no-hitter into the seventh against the Twins. On the heels of his previous start against the White Sox, one in which Niemann struggled through four and 2/3 innings, yielding five earned with six hits, two walks and two hit-batters, I was relieved that Jeff was able to nail down the sweep in Minnesota.
However, this start did little to assuage my fears of a potential "dead arm" situation that seems to be looming over the Rays' heads. After tossing only 84 pitches, Maddon opted to go with the bullpen as Niemann's velocity was beginning to deteriorate over the course of his seven innings. The velocity and tailing action was down on Jeff's two-seamer compared to his season averages, as was the slide on his slider, thus giving Niemann a lowly two strikeouts. His command wasn't on point either; throwing 52 strikes against 32 balls and just 11 first pitch strikes in the 23 batters he faced.
So how exactly did he blank the Twinkies for so long if his best stuff and command were so fleeting?
He used a little more than that 6'9", 260 lb hulking physique. He used that little thing between his ears. He opted to increase the number of four-seamers he was throwing and finally began to get the ball down.
Here's Jeff's previous start vs. Chicago:
However, this start did little to assuage my fears of a potential "dead arm" situation that seems to be looming over the Rays' heads. After tossing only 84 pitches, Maddon opted to go with the bullpen as Niemann's velocity was beginning to deteriorate over the course of his seven innings. The velocity and tailing action was down on Jeff's two-seamer compared to his season averages, as was the slide on his slider, thus giving Niemann a lowly two strikeouts. His command wasn't on point either; throwing 52 strikes against 32 balls and just 11 first pitch strikes in the 23 batters he faced.
So how exactly did he blank the Twinkies for so long if his best stuff and command were so fleeting?
He used a little more than that 6'9", 260 lb hulking physique. He used that little thing between his ears. He opted to increase the number of four-seamers he was throwing and finally began to get the ball down.
Here's Jeff's previous start vs. Chicago:
 |
| Stolen from TexasLeaguers.com |
Here's Thursday vs Minnesota:
 |
| Stolen from TexasLeaguers.com |
We see almost a complete flip-flop in where Jeff is pitching in the two starts. In spite of the garden variety of his problems, I am encouraged to see that Jeff was able to beat his fastball down. And, interestingly enough, at least to me, is what Jeff did even when he missed the zone altogether. You can see through the charts that against Chicago, the ball was sailing up at the top of and above the zone. On Thursday, Jeff was able to be "wildly effective", throwing nearly as many balls as strikes in the lower portion of the zone and outside of it.
In a stroke of analytical genius, I took that first chart into Preview (Mac users know!) and rotated it to the right twice and put it next to yesterday's chart. Look:
Pitching > Throwing.
And in one final (ab)use of the lovely graphs provided by the kind people at Texas Leaguers, is this highly cluttered one featuring every pitch location for Jeff Niemann since his downfall began on August 25 of last season.
Horse = beaten to death.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Rays Farm Report April '11
Just two weeks into the minor league season and the Rays bevy of young talent has already shown the glimmers of hope that netted the organization the second best farm system ranking according to the scouting gurus at Baseball America.
With that being said, 15 games is entirely too small of a sample size to get off on. I must also preface this bit with a disclaimer as to my actual scouting/MLB talent evaluation credibility; it's nonexistent. My research techniques included googling "baseball america top prospects rays" and "rays minor league affiliates". However, this is likely more than anyone reading this has done.
One final set of notes. I am not discussing career Quadruple-A guys like Mike Eckstrom and Justin Ruggiano. Instead, I really just want to take a look at young guys and what they're progress is within the organization. I won't be talking about Jeremy Hellickson or Jake McGee as they are already contributing to the parent club. And top prospects/2010 first-rounders Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner and Drew Vittleson will begin their season at Rookie ball next month with the Princeton Rays, so I'll hold off on discussing them until they begin play.
What I have left, is a dirty dozen of ball players that I'll be monitoring throughout their minor league endeavors in 2011. Players are listed with their current position, expected time of arrival to the majors and their preseason rank within the Rays organization, according to Baseball America, in parenthesis.
12. Robinson Chirinos - C - ETA 2011 (18) - Picked up in the Garza-Cubs trade, the 26-year old destroyed minor league pitching at Double and Triple-A last season in the Cubs system, posting a stout .326/.416/.583 line. So far in 2011, Chirinos has seen a slow start, batting just .192/.276/.192 in 52 ABs at Durham. His career numbers and age plus his battle with Durham's incumbent catcher, Jose Lobaton, could prevent him from making a splash in St. Pete, but his stats in 2010 make him a point of interest.
11. Nick Barnese - RHP - ETA 2013 (15) - Barnese is a control artist who features a fastball with a ton of movement. He's just 22 years of age and already holds a career 2.94 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP in 312.0 innings of minor league ball. Though he's off to a slow start at Double-A Montgomery (6.39 ERA in 3 starts), his main problem in reaching the majors is the glut of pitchers ahead of him in the organization.
10. Jake Thompson - RHP - ETA 2013 (13) - After posting a solid 1.06 ERA in 51.0 innings at Advanced-A ball, Thompson has returned to Charlotte, posting a solid 4.05 ERA in his first 3 starts of the season. At 21, Thompson has a big frame (6'3", 225) and a big fastball (tops out at 97 MPH) that he may be able to ride to the bigs. However, his slider is considered 3rd best among current Rays prospects and has him on my radar.
9. Alex Colome - RHP - ETA 2013 (9) - Colome is 22-years old and features the organization's top right-handed fastball. He used the pitch to strikeout 126 batters in only 118 frames last season. This season his strikeout rate has fallen a bit and he's sporty an unnervingly high 7.64 ERA through his first four starts at Advanced-A Charlotte. In his defense, the ERA is skewed from his 2011 debut in which he went just 1.2 innings, yielding 7 earned. He's surrendered 8 earned runs in his last three outings.
8. Alex Cobb - RHP - ETA 2012 (20) - Yet another right-hander is the 23-year old Cobb, who mowed down more than a batter an inning and donned a 2.71 ERA for the Double-A Biscuits in 2010. Cobb uses a plus changeup with solid control to keep hitters guessing. Parlaying his 2010 success, Cobb has a 2.05 ERA through his first four starts with Durham. His ETA is 2012 based, in part, to the fact that his stuff isn't overwhelming.
7. Tim Beckham - SS - ETA 2012 (19) - After garnering an ungodly $6.15 million signing bonus, Beckham has also garnered the tag of "bust". While it's unlikely he'll ever live up to the one-time hype, he possesses the typical athletic abilities that we love in our Rays. He hit just .256 at Single-A in 2010, displaying zero power (.359 slug.) and poor plate discipline (119 K's in 465 ABs). However, at just 21 years of age, Beckham may still develop into a Major Leaguer. At Double-A this season, he's hitting .286 and slugging .444. His ETA is 2012, but he may never even make the bigs. I admit that the only reason I have him included here is because he is a former #1 overall pick and we've invested a substantial amount of money in him.
6. Alex Torres - LHP - ETA 2011 (7) - Torres is the 23-year old lefty we picked up in the Kazmir-Anges deal back in '09. Last season, he averaged more than a strikeout per inning and posted a 3.47 ERA at Triple-A Durham. Torres possesses a Major League-ready changeup to accompany a plus fastball. In 2011, Torres has been unhittable, boasting a microscopic 0.848 WHIP to go along with a chintzy 0.59 ERA, earning him Pitcher of the Week honors for the Bulls. Granted, this is a small sample size, I'm encouraged by the fact that the Rays added him to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid anyone trying to snatch him up in the Rule 5 Draft, displaying to me that they have confidence in his ability to give something to the big league club as soon as 2011.
5. Chris Archer - RHP - ETA 2012 (4) - At 22, Archer was the centerpiece of the prospect-laden Garza deal. At High-A and Double-A last year, he put up a solid 2.34 ERA. His slider grades out as the best among Rays prospects, which along with his plus fastball and sizable frame (6'3", 185), have generated national recognition for his future. So far in 2011, Archer has battled with his long running control issues, thus giving him a rather high 6.39 ERA at Double-A Montgomery. Too early to make any guesses, but I suspect the Rays will coddle his young arm and he could have an impact on the MLB team as early as 2012.
4. Brandon Guyer - RF - ETA 2011 (12) - Another piece from the Garza heist, the 25-year old Guyer owns a career .296/.355/.472 triple slash in the minors. Guyer has also displayed steady defense and solid speed (60 SB vs. 10 CS in '09-'10). He's lit up Triple-A to the tune of .358/.411/.627 so far in 2011, and may give Desmond Jennings a run for his money should a spot open up in the Rays outfield in the near future.
3. Hak-Ju Lee - SS - ETA 2012 (8) - Yet another portion of the plunder taken from the Garza deal is the 20-year old South Korean. Considered amongst the top gloveman in the Rays ranks, Lee also owns a .302 average in 777 minor league ABs. Power has been a concern (.386 career SLG), but with a 6'2", 170 lb frame, it's likely he just hasn't grown into his power stroke yet. He grades out as the organization's best hitter for average and also has plus speed. At Charlotte this season, he's torched High-A pitching with a .393/.469/.679 line thus far. It's a foregone conclusion that he will catch Tim Beckham at Double-A and unseat him as the SS there, due to Lee's far-slicker fielding. With the team already having shopped Reid Brignac in various trade scenarios over the Winter, Lee could claim the Rays job as soon as 2012. Some are saying he's already a "stronger-armed version of Omar Vizquel," but I would like to give him at least one more season of seasoning before we start casting his bust for Cooperstown.
2. Desmond Jennings - CF - ETA 2011 (3) - After being sent down for additional hacks in the minors, Jennings has started slow in Triple-A (.266/.413/.391), but his pedigree and solid career numbers land him as my top position player prospect going forward. While he's been unfairly compared to Carl Crawford, Jennings skill set is filled to the brim at every tool sans power. He likely won't move B.J. Upton from center, but could be in the Rays lineup at any point this season. He's displayed plate discipline beyond his 24 years, and his plus speed and baserunning make him an ideal candidate for the leadoff spot. Injuries hampered his 2010 output, but I am enthusiastic at the prospect of adding him to the Rays roster as soon as possible.
1. Matt Moore - LHP - ETA 2011 (2) - At 21, Moore has feasted on weaklings in the minors. His fastball and curve grade out as the best among all Rays prospects. However, and bizarrely enough, Moore has already earned the label "slow-starter", struggling early on in both 2009 and 2010 seasons to find his dominant self. Staying true to the trend, Moore has a 5.89 ERA through his first four starts this season at Double-A. I'm not deterred because this kid is scary good. Scary good. In 2010, he was the first minor leaguer to strikeout 200 batters since Francisco Liriano did so in 2005. His dizzyingly-high SO/9 ratio has hovered around 13 since he's started pitching professionally. He's being touted as an early-'00s Barry Zito, with a better fastball. This guy will likely buzz down batters at Double-A and earn a call up this September, potentially replacing Jeff Niemann by 2012 in the Rays rotation.
Honorable Mention: Derek Dietrich - SS - ETA 2013 (26) - Coming from a Georgia Tech baseball program that has produced Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek, Mark Teixeira and Matt Weiters over the past couple of decades, Dietrich has garnered marginal consideration from Baseball America, who ranked him as just the 26th best prospect currently in the Rays system. With 2010 being his first season of professional ball, the 21-year old shortstop posted a respectable .279/.340/.419 line for the Short Season Single-A Hudson Valley Renegades. This showing earned him a bump up to the Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods, where he has flat-out raked, putting up a .340/.400/.660 triple slash so far this season. While it's impossible to forecast him doing absolutely anything, it's not impossible to see him as yet another shortstop who laps Tim Beckham in the Rays organizational rungs. Since I have not discussed many players below the Double-A, level I opted to give my honorable mention nod to Dietrich.
As mentioned above, each of these guys' 2011 stats should be taken with a grain of salt. But also realize that each of my top 12 has logged multiple seasons of professional ball and the scouts (not just me) love 'em. It's pretty damned exciting seeing this much premium talent bubbling just beneath the big league surface. As a Rays fan, you can't help but think that if we can retain a team in the Tampa Bay Area beyond 2012, that it will likely be a competitive group of youngsters, much like the '08 and '10 AL East champion versions of the Rays.
With that being said, 15 games is entirely too small of a sample size to get off on. I must also preface this bit with a disclaimer as to my actual scouting/MLB talent evaluation credibility; it's nonexistent. My research techniques included googling "baseball america top prospects rays" and "rays minor league affiliates". However, this is likely more than anyone reading this has done.
One final set of notes. I am not discussing career Quadruple-A guys like Mike Eckstrom and Justin Ruggiano. Instead, I really just want to take a look at young guys and what they're progress is within the organization. I won't be talking about Jeremy Hellickson or Jake McGee as they are already contributing to the parent club. And top prospects/2010 first-rounders Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner and Drew Vittleson will begin their season at Rookie ball next month with the Princeton Rays, so I'll hold off on discussing them until they begin play.
What I have left, is a dirty dozen of ball players that I'll be monitoring throughout their minor league endeavors in 2011. Players are listed with their current position, expected time of arrival to the majors and their preseason rank within the Rays organization, according to Baseball America, in parenthesis.
12. Robinson Chirinos - C - ETA 2011 (18) - Picked up in the Garza-Cubs trade, the 26-year old destroyed minor league pitching at Double and Triple-A last season in the Cubs system, posting a stout .326/.416/.583 line. So far in 2011, Chirinos has seen a slow start, batting just .192/.276/.192 in 52 ABs at Durham. His career numbers and age plus his battle with Durham's incumbent catcher, Jose Lobaton, could prevent him from making a splash in St. Pete, but his stats in 2010 make him a point of interest.
11. Nick Barnese - RHP - ETA 2013 (15) - Barnese is a control artist who features a fastball with a ton of movement. He's just 22 years of age and already holds a career 2.94 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP in 312.0 innings of minor league ball. Though he's off to a slow start at Double-A Montgomery (6.39 ERA in 3 starts), his main problem in reaching the majors is the glut of pitchers ahead of him in the organization.
10. Jake Thompson - RHP - ETA 2013 (13) - After posting a solid 1.06 ERA in 51.0 innings at Advanced-A ball, Thompson has returned to Charlotte, posting a solid 4.05 ERA in his first 3 starts of the season. At 21, Thompson has a big frame (6'3", 225) and a big fastball (tops out at 97 MPH) that he may be able to ride to the bigs. However, his slider is considered 3rd best among current Rays prospects and has him on my radar.
9. Alex Colome - RHP - ETA 2013 (9) - Colome is 22-years old and features the organization's top right-handed fastball. He used the pitch to strikeout 126 batters in only 118 frames last season. This season his strikeout rate has fallen a bit and he's sporty an unnervingly high 7.64 ERA through his first four starts at Advanced-A Charlotte. In his defense, the ERA is skewed from his 2011 debut in which he went just 1.2 innings, yielding 7 earned. He's surrendered 8 earned runs in his last three outings.
8. Alex Cobb - RHP - ETA 2012 (20) - Yet another right-hander is the 23-year old Cobb, who mowed down more than a batter an inning and donned a 2.71 ERA for the Double-A Biscuits in 2010. Cobb uses a plus changeup with solid control to keep hitters guessing. Parlaying his 2010 success, Cobb has a 2.05 ERA through his first four starts with Durham. His ETA is 2012 based, in part, to the fact that his stuff isn't overwhelming.
7. Tim Beckham - SS - ETA 2012 (19) - After garnering an ungodly $6.15 million signing bonus, Beckham has also garnered the tag of "bust". While it's unlikely he'll ever live up to the one-time hype, he possesses the typical athletic abilities that we love in our Rays. He hit just .256 at Single-A in 2010, displaying zero power (.359 slug.) and poor plate discipline (119 K's in 465 ABs). However, at just 21 years of age, Beckham may still develop into a Major Leaguer. At Double-A this season, he's hitting .286 and slugging .444. His ETA is 2012, but he may never even make the bigs. I admit that the only reason I have him included here is because he is a former #1 overall pick and we've invested a substantial amount of money in him.
6. Alex Torres - LHP - ETA 2011 (7) - Torres is the 23-year old lefty we picked up in the Kazmir-Anges deal back in '09. Last season, he averaged more than a strikeout per inning and posted a 3.47 ERA at Triple-A Durham. Torres possesses a Major League-ready changeup to accompany a plus fastball. In 2011, Torres has been unhittable, boasting a microscopic 0.848 WHIP to go along with a chintzy 0.59 ERA, earning him Pitcher of the Week honors for the Bulls. Granted, this is a small sample size, I'm encouraged by the fact that the Rays added him to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid anyone trying to snatch him up in the Rule 5 Draft, displaying to me that they have confidence in his ability to give something to the big league club as soon as 2011.
5. Chris Archer - RHP - ETA 2012 (4) - At 22, Archer was the centerpiece of the prospect-laden Garza deal. At High-A and Double-A last year, he put up a solid 2.34 ERA. His slider grades out as the best among Rays prospects, which along with his plus fastball and sizable frame (6'3", 185), have generated national recognition for his future. So far in 2011, Archer has battled with his long running control issues, thus giving him a rather high 6.39 ERA at Double-A Montgomery. Too early to make any guesses, but I suspect the Rays will coddle his young arm and he could have an impact on the MLB team as early as 2012.
4. Brandon Guyer - RF - ETA 2011 (12) - Another piece from the Garza heist, the 25-year old Guyer owns a career .296/.355/.472 triple slash in the minors. Guyer has also displayed steady defense and solid speed (60 SB vs. 10 CS in '09-'10). He's lit up Triple-A to the tune of .358/.411/.627 so far in 2011, and may give Desmond Jennings a run for his money should a spot open up in the Rays outfield in the near future.
3. Hak-Ju Lee - SS - ETA 2012 (8) - Yet another portion of the plunder taken from the Garza deal is the 20-year old South Korean. Considered amongst the top gloveman in the Rays ranks, Lee also owns a .302 average in 777 minor league ABs. Power has been a concern (.386 career SLG), but with a 6'2", 170 lb frame, it's likely he just hasn't grown into his power stroke yet. He grades out as the organization's best hitter for average and also has plus speed. At Charlotte this season, he's torched High-A pitching with a .393/.469/.679 line thus far. It's a foregone conclusion that he will catch Tim Beckham at Double-A and unseat him as the SS there, due to Lee's far-slicker fielding. With the team already having shopped Reid Brignac in various trade scenarios over the Winter, Lee could claim the Rays job as soon as 2012. Some are saying he's already a "stronger-armed version of Omar Vizquel," but I would like to give him at least one more season of seasoning before we start casting his bust for Cooperstown.
2. Desmond Jennings - CF - ETA 2011 (3) - After being sent down for additional hacks in the minors, Jennings has started slow in Triple-A (.266/.413/.391), but his pedigree and solid career numbers land him as my top position player prospect going forward. While he's been unfairly compared to Carl Crawford, Jennings skill set is filled to the brim at every tool sans power. He likely won't move B.J. Upton from center, but could be in the Rays lineup at any point this season. He's displayed plate discipline beyond his 24 years, and his plus speed and baserunning make him an ideal candidate for the leadoff spot. Injuries hampered his 2010 output, but I am enthusiastic at the prospect of adding him to the Rays roster as soon as possible.
1. Matt Moore - LHP - ETA 2011 (2) - At 21, Moore has feasted on weaklings in the minors. His fastball and curve grade out as the best among all Rays prospects. However, and bizarrely enough, Moore has already earned the label "slow-starter", struggling early on in both 2009 and 2010 seasons to find his dominant self. Staying true to the trend, Moore has a 5.89 ERA through his first four starts this season at Double-A. I'm not deterred because this kid is scary good. Scary good. In 2010, he was the first minor leaguer to strikeout 200 batters since Francisco Liriano did so in 2005. His dizzyingly-high SO/9 ratio has hovered around 13 since he's started pitching professionally. He's being touted as an early-'00s Barry Zito, with a better fastball. This guy will likely buzz down batters at Double-A and earn a call up this September, potentially replacing Jeff Niemann by 2012 in the Rays rotation.
Honorable Mention: Derek Dietrich - SS - ETA 2013 (26) - Coming from a Georgia Tech baseball program that has produced Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek, Mark Teixeira and Matt Weiters over the past couple of decades, Dietrich has garnered marginal consideration from Baseball America, who ranked him as just the 26th best prospect currently in the Rays system. With 2010 being his first season of professional ball, the 21-year old shortstop posted a respectable .279/.340/.419 line for the Short Season Single-A Hudson Valley Renegades. This showing earned him a bump up to the Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods, where he has flat-out raked, putting up a .340/.400/.660 triple slash so far this season. While it's impossible to forecast him doing absolutely anything, it's not impossible to see him as yet another shortstop who laps Tim Beckham in the Rays organizational rungs. Since I have not discussed many players below the Double-A, level I opted to give my honorable mention nod to Dietrich.
As mentioned above, each of these guys' 2011 stats should be taken with a grain of salt. But also realize that each of my top 12 has logged multiple seasons of professional ball and the scouts (not just me) love 'em. It's pretty damned exciting seeing this much premium talent bubbling just beneath the big league surface. As a Rays fan, you can't help but think that if we can retain a team in the Tampa Bay Area beyond 2012, that it will likely be a competitive group of youngsters, much like the '08 and '10 AL East champion versions of the Rays.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Book Review: The Extra 2% by Jonah Keri
Living in the Tampa Bay Area, I am constantly at odds with the greater sports fandom of America. I consistently feel like were getting boned on every close call in any Bucs/Lightning/Rays' game, while ESPN and other media outlets refuse to produce even the smallest shred of positive news on our sports franchises.
The Bucs and Lightning have both won their league's title in the last decade but no one seems to care.
Our lowly Rays have captured two division crowns over the past three seasons in the vaunted AL East. Still, they receive little, if any, positive press.
But finally we have this Jonah Keri thing. A piece dedicated solely to the merits of our Tampa Bay Rays. This book is easily the best piece of writing on any of the Tampa Bay sports franchises and a must-read for any diehard fan within the region.
Coming into The Extra 2%, I was already somewhat familiar with Mr. Keri's work, having previously read Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong
. That title provided a whimsical look at statistical oddities within the game of baseball combined with funny little anecdotes repudiating the old-timey train of thought that still pervades the game's modern minds. With this prior knowledge and the few bits and pieces I'd heard about the book being a business work with some baseball parts, I had my own resignations about the book being perhaps too heady or down right degrading to what the Sternberg/Silverman/Freidman trio have accomplished in their less than six years at the helm.
This is where I was wrong.
From the onset, the book hooks you with an entertaining view of the history of baseball in the Bay Area and outlines the painstaking efforts of the region to finally land an MLB team. It goes on to recount the abysmal Naimoli-LaMar era that preceded the current regime. Then, it goes on to provide amazing incite on exactly how these Wall Street whizzes came to dominate America's pastime on a shoe-string budget by using brain-busting algorithms and clever wheelings and dealings to create baseball's equivalent to arbitrage, thus yielding them the titular extra 2%.
The book is in tune with a younger generation using youthful witticisms, profanity (I really fuckin' love them four letter words!) and a host of colorful vignettes that string together this franchise's brief history in a quick and easy read. It provides wave after wave of newfangled sabermetric statistical references to reinforce its points, but Keri is not enslaved by these newer metrics, often relying on more basic numbers to convey his point for the layman. Also, the book accommodates readers of any demographic, with its short chapters, charming biographical bits on the Rays' top brass and manager Joe Maddon as well as Keri's denouncement of the game's two evil empires, the Red Sox and the Yankees, which almost any baseball fan can relate with.
I consider myself a Rays aficionado, but Keri's collection of 175 personally-conducted interviews blew me away, not just with the sheer quantity of knowledge, but with the overwhelming breadth of facts, that I, heretofore, had zero knowledge about. From the Devil Rays narrowly missing out on the services of both Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira, to the shrewd frugality of Vince Naimoli that damaged the team's brand and community relationship, this book was nearly impossible to put down, as I was constantly intrigued by what new piece of insider information or the next trivial tidbit that lay in wait on each upcoming page.
However, the book is not solely a work of admiration for the Rays; it also serves as a cautionary tale to the Tampa Bay area. The final chapters wind down, outlining a desperate situation and the precarious state of Major League Baseball in the Bay Area. Keri emphasizes the need for increased revenue streams, more local fan support and the absolute necessity of a new stadium in Tampa, pointing out that while the concept of contraction is an unlikely scenario, the idea that a business man of Sternberg's esteem may very well move the team or sell it to a less savvy ownership group, which would likely dismantle the current front office and bring back the gloomy feel of a bona fide loser to the Trop.
I have read many baseball books, but this was the first one by a member of my own generation, and while perhaps not an immediate classic, the book is an absolute must-read for Rays fans. Go to your library and request it or splurge the $16.49 at Amazon, just do whatever you have to do to get this knowledge in your head, you'll be all the better for it.
The Bucs and Lightning have both won their league's title in the last decade but no one seems to care.
Our lowly Rays have captured two division crowns over the past three seasons in the vaunted AL East. Still, they receive little, if any, positive press.
But finally we have this Jonah Keri thing. A piece dedicated solely to the merits of our Tampa Bay Rays. This book is easily the best piece of writing on any of the Tampa Bay sports franchises and a must-read for any diehard fan within the region.
Coming into The Extra 2%, I was already somewhat familiar with Mr. Keri's work, having previously read Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong
. That title provided a whimsical look at statistical oddities within the game of baseball combined with funny little anecdotes repudiating the old-timey train of thought that still pervades the game's modern minds. With this prior knowledge and the few bits and pieces I'd heard about the book being a business work with some baseball parts, I had my own resignations about the book being perhaps too heady or down right degrading to what the Sternberg/Silverman/Freidman trio have accomplished in their less than six years at the helm.This is where I was wrong.
From the onset, the book hooks you with an entertaining view of the history of baseball in the Bay Area and outlines the painstaking efforts of the region to finally land an MLB team. It goes on to recount the abysmal Naimoli-LaMar era that preceded the current regime. Then, it goes on to provide amazing incite on exactly how these Wall Street whizzes came to dominate America's pastime on a shoe-string budget by using brain-busting algorithms and clever wheelings and dealings to create baseball's equivalent to arbitrage, thus yielding them the titular extra 2%.
The book is in tune with a younger generation using youthful witticisms, profanity (I really fuckin' love them four letter words!) and a host of colorful vignettes that string together this franchise's brief history in a quick and easy read. It provides wave after wave of newfangled sabermetric statistical references to reinforce its points, but Keri is not enslaved by these newer metrics, often relying on more basic numbers to convey his point for the layman. Also, the book accommodates readers of any demographic, with its short chapters, charming biographical bits on the Rays' top brass and manager Joe Maddon as well as Keri's denouncement of the game's two evil empires, the Red Sox and the Yankees, which almost any baseball fan can relate with.
I consider myself a Rays aficionado, but Keri's collection of 175 personally-conducted interviews blew me away, not just with the sheer quantity of knowledge, but with the overwhelming breadth of facts, that I, heretofore, had zero knowledge about. From the Devil Rays narrowly missing out on the services of both Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira, to the shrewd frugality of Vince Naimoli that damaged the team's brand and community relationship, this book was nearly impossible to put down, as I was constantly intrigued by what new piece of insider information or the next trivial tidbit that lay in wait on each upcoming page.
However, the book is not solely a work of admiration for the Rays; it also serves as a cautionary tale to the Tampa Bay area. The final chapters wind down, outlining a desperate situation and the precarious state of Major League Baseball in the Bay Area. Keri emphasizes the need for increased revenue streams, more local fan support and the absolute necessity of a new stadium in Tampa, pointing out that while the concept of contraction is an unlikely scenario, the idea that a business man of Sternberg's esteem may very well move the team or sell it to a less savvy ownership group, which would likely dismantle the current front office and bring back the gloomy feel of a bona fide loser to the Trop.
I have read many baseball books, but this was the first one by a member of my own generation, and while perhaps not an immediate classic, the book is an absolute must-read for Rays fans. Go to your library and request it or splurge the $16.49 at Amazon, just do whatever you have to do to get this knowledge in your head, you'll be all the better for it.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Is Big Game James Back?
It's been a while. As the semester winds down, I, like many of you, am feeling the strain of academia, and have been a bit strapped for time as of late.
Additionally, I've feared that any postings may extinguish the Rays current hot streak. My superstitiosity borders on Turk Wendell levels. I mean seriously, every day I settle into the same spot on the same couch to watch the game on the same channel. And much to the chagrin of my girlfriend, I sit in this same spot screaming at the television, celebrating any hit or strikeout or samfuldery with the kind of revelry that is certainly closer to One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest than the flaccid fan following the Rays have received so far this season. Whatever. The cat shoots me dirty looks, likely wondering what kind of savage beast I am. I am man. As in caveman. I like seeing club smash rock far. Granted I typically watch these games clad in only my underwear, I've been known to don the occasional rally cap, which to this point in the season has netted at least two ninth inning comebacks. You're welcome Rays. I do this for you.
Tonight, I broke form and headed over to my local feeding trough to gorge on some chicken wings and Dudetime with some Dudes. In watching tonight's game, the Rays again jumped White Sox pitching in the opening inning, but were only able score one additional run against John Danks, who pitched a dandy tonight.
Stealing his thunder was James Shields. Shields recorded his first complete game since 2008, and required just 105 pitches to get the necessary 27 outs tonight. Watching the game I noticed that Shields was working smart, not hard. He dropped the first pitch in there for a strike around 80% of the time, and faced the minimum number of batters in five of nine frames. The White Sox were kept off balance all night by Shields offspeed pitches, which can be this particular group's kryptonite. There's no doubt that the Sox can hammer fastballs, however, the team will likely feature a handful of 100-strikeout hitters at the completion of 2011 due to their inability to recognize the breaking pitches.
But back to Shields and my excitement for the evening. Upon getting home, I immediately went over to the amazing people at brooksbaseball.net, and nerded out over Shields' Pitch f/x data and strike percentages. While watching the game I noticed he was working primarily with his soft stuff, but I didn't realize this was a result of his harder pitches failing to find their way into the strike zone. Shields was only able to get his fastballs (two-seam, four-seam, cutter combined) and sliders over the plate for a strike just a bit more than half of the time, in spite of the fact that his two-seemer and slider showed excellent movement (according to average H-break). But what Shields did do, was kill the Sox with his curve and changeup, getting those pitches in the strike zone around 90% of the time. With his fastballs ineffectively wild, Shields actually had to pitch, instead of just throw.
What does this mean and why should you give a shit?
The quick decline of Shields over the previous two years has been based around his inability to consistently spot his fastball, and an over-reliance on a four-seemer that is nothing more than a below-average pitch. He throws the pitch harder than ever (actually increased his average velocity in 2010), but he missed his targets more and more, causing a rise in his BB/9 and HR/9 to go with an insanely-high 5.18 ERA last season. Teams also made harder contact with the ball, producing higher-than-acceptable HR/FB and FO/GO ratios for Shields in '09 and '10. While some stat geeks point out that Shields was victimized by a rather high BABIP in 2010, not all of the swelling was caused by sheer bad luck, some part owed to Shields piss-poor play on the field. Either way, Shields was already pegged by the sabermetrics' community to have a rebound year based on his solid career ERA- and reasonable FIP last season, but he's taken this one step further early in 2011.
No longer relying on his fastball to navigate his way through lineups, he's now turned to his trusty changeup, utilizing this pitch more than any other (~30% of his pitches). Coupled with the change, is his curveball, which he is using roughly 20% of the time with above-average vertical movement (-10.45 avg. vert. movement tonight, filthy). His changeup is a legitimate tool and hardly something new to AL batters. In '07 and '09, his changeup was the 1st and 4th best in baseball according to wCH, a crazy metric at fangraphs designed to assign runs above average to a particular pitch. What makes this pitch so devastating? Based on Pitch f/x mapping, his release points for his four-seamer and change were nearly identical in 2010, however, the change arrives at the plate seven miles an hour slower than the fastball, making hitters bats appear to have holes in them. So far this season, he's using his soft pitches to setup a plus two-seamer and a put-away slider from his vast repertoire, consistently keeping hitters off balance and unable to square up the ball for power.
I know I've probably lost everyone reading this with my over-the-top schtick and intense usage of metrics that beckon the question is there anything that isn't counted, measured and graphed in today's game?
So in review and in more simplistic terms, Shields has relied less on his fastball that got slapped around the last couple of years, instead going with an improving curve and a top notch change for 50% of his pitches. With his ability to spot these pitches in the zone, Shields is pitching to contact, considerably weaker contact, which the steady Rays defense is gobbling up. If he can stick with this new formula, expect a return to form for Big Game James, who'll hopefully have another chance to pitch in some big games this October.
Monday, April 11, 2011
2010 Rays in 2011
There is a growing sentiment among some Rays fans that the 2011 version of the Tampa Bay Rays were doomed from the onset, thanks to the losses of quite few of our key contributors from the 2010 squad. These people are bozos.
Let's take a look at what our lineup could look like (fingers crossed!!!):
Stats are batting average/on-base/slugging. Bold indicates the departed Rays.
1. SS - Jason Bartlett .148/.233/.148
2. LF - Carl Crawford .132/.175/.132
3. CF - B.J. Upton .290/.371/.548
4. 1B - Carlos Pena .190/.333/.238
5. RF - Ben Zobrist .147/.237/.294
6. DH - Dan Johnson .088/.139/.206
7. C - Kelly Shoppach .200/.250/200
8. 3B - Willy Aybar He's still a free agent.
9. 2B - Sean Rodriguez .250/.294/.625
Ok, upset that I actually set a lineup with just eight guys. Here:
Let's take a look at what our lineup could look like (fingers crossed!!!):
Stats are batting average/on-base/slugging. Bold indicates the departed Rays.
1. SS - Jason Bartlett .148/.233/.148
2. LF - Carl Crawford .132/.175/.132
3. CF - B.J. Upton .290/.371/.548
4. 1B - Carlos Pena .190/.333/.238
5. RF - Ben Zobrist .147/.237/.294
6. DH - Dan Johnson .088/.139/.206
7. C - Kelly Shoppach .200/.250/200
8. 3B - Willy Aybar He's still a free agent.
9. 2B - Sean Rodriguez .250/.294/.625
Ok, upset that I actually set a lineup with just eight guys. Here:
1. SS - Jason Bartlett .148/.233/.148
2. LF - Carl Crawford .132/.175/.132
3. CF - B.J. Upton .290/.371/.548
4. 1B - Carlos Pena .190/.333/.238
5. RF - Ben Zobrist .147/.237/.294
6. DH - Dan Johnson .088/.139/.206
7. C - Kelly Shoppach .200/.250/200
8. 2B - Reid Brignac .176/.263/.176
9. 3B - Sean Rodriguez .250/.294/.625
Happy now?
I didn't cherry pick here. Matt Joyce (.130/.259/.217) and John Jaso (.067/.125/.067) would not be good enough to crack my "optimal" lineup. The Rays are hitting a combined line of .163/.232/.284. If we had the Bartlett/Crawford/Pena-trio back in the Bay, we'd actually be doing worse.
Here's the rotation.
1. David Price 0-2, 4.85 ERA in 13.0 innings
2. Matt Garza 0-1, 5.68 ERA in 12.2 innings
3. James Shields 0-1, 4.73 ERA in 13.1 innings
4. Jeff Niemann 0-2, 8.31 ERA in 8.2 innings
5. Wade Davis 0-2, 4.38 ERA in 12.1 innings
And the bullpen...
Rafael Soriano 9.82 ERA, 3 K in 4 appearances
Joaquin Benoit 0.00 ERA, 2 K in 4 appearances
Grant Balfour 5.40 ERA, 3 K in 4 appearances
Dan Wheeler 11.57 ERA, 1 K in 3 appearances
Andy Sonnanstine 2.70 ERA, 2 K in 3 appearances
Jake McGee 6.75 ERA, 2 K in 5 appearances
Ladies and gentlemen, there's your 2010 Tampa Bay Rays (in 2011)!
Let's not forget to subtract players added via trades:
Sam Fuld (.130/.320/.318)
Cesar Ramos (3.86 ERA, 1 K in 4 appearances)
Adam Russell (2.70 ERA, 2 K in 5 appearances)
Fuld's triple slash doesn't include his 5-for-5 in steal attempts or the three runs he saved with that insane catch Saturday. With Garza in the rotation, we wouldn't have gotten to see Jeremy Hellickson in the rotation or his 10-strikeout game last Thursday.
Of the seven big names we lost over the offseason, just Benoit has delivered anywhere in the realm of his 2010 numbers, with the other six being just as crumby as the current Rays' current cast.
Do I really think Crawford isn't going to get it together? Do I think Pena won't hit some homers? Do I think Soriano won't find his rhythm?
No, of course they will. And our 2011 Rays will get their hits and make their pitches. It's way too early to start getting worried, there's 153 games left on the schedule, and all teams go through rough patches over the course of the Summer. Our's just came in the Spring. It's not time to to get down on the boys, it's time to get your ass to the Trop and scream and yell and support these guys.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Manny was Manny
I've sat and waited for the gutless Ramirez to make a public statement regarding his latest misadventure. Nothing from Manny. Apparently he's comfortable slinking away, hiding in the shadows or going to Spain or whatever it is that he is going to do now that his playing days are over.
Unlike many Rays fans, I'm not that steamed at Ramirez. We knew about Manny's track record of pushing down elderly traveling secretaries. We knew about his holding teams hostage with vague injuries and attitude problems. We knew of his dabbling in female fertility drugs. How could we realistically expect ANYTHING from him? Players and writers were buzzing over the shape Ramirez was in this Spring. His latest transgression against the MLB/MLBPA's joint venture against PEDs is likely the reason he was looking so stout. But at 38 years of age, did we really think Manny was gonna be a true game-changer in his Tampa Bay duds?
Optimistically, I'd only expected around 300 plate appearances from the dreaded derelict. While this certainly won't happen, and Tampa Bay fans will likely never get an explanation as to the precise events surrounding Manny's downfall, I am truly surprised about the amount of negative press Manny Ramirez has received to close the final chapter of his career. So instead of bashing him, I'm going to celebrate this guy, who in my opinion was the best right-handed hitter of his era.
Manny's rookie year was the strike shortened season of 1994. From the get-go Ramirez displayed a propensity for power, as he slugged a solid .521. His power-packed effort wasn't enough to garner the Rookie of the Year in '94, and he was edged out by household name Bob Hamelin for the award.
In his next season, Manny broke out for a triple slash line of .308/.402/.558, helping the Cleveland Indians to their first pennant in over four decades. 1995 also marked the first season in which Manny would clock 30 home runs. He reached this plateau in 11 more seasons, placing him behind only Hank Aaron (15), Alex Rodriguez (14 and counting), Barry Bonds (14), Babe Ruth (13) and Mike Schmidt (13) for number of 30+ HR campaigns. And for those of you who are more sabermetrically-inclined, 1995 also began a stretch of 16 seasons in which Man-Ram would log a wRC+ of at least 140.
Manny would bang away in Cleveland through the 2000 season, amassing 236 HR and 804 RBI in his eight seasons with the Tribe. Following the 2000 season, the Boston Red Sox and Ramirez agreed to terms on an 8-year/$200 million deal, which at the time was the most lucrative contract in professional sports history.
It's with the Red Sox that Manny broke out of his shell, giving us the precocious left fielder who would high five fans mid-catch, sneak away to take a leak in the Green Monster and help Boston break up the Curse of the Bambino. It's hard to pick one season as Manny's best in Boston because they were all pretty darned good. He clotted 274 bombs in his eight seasons in Beantown, posting a .312/.411/.588 line there. His time in Boston yielded a batting title in '02 (.349) and a home run title in '04 (43) to go along with his World Series MVP in that historic 2004 title run for the Sox. In teaming up with Big Papi David Ortiz, the duo produced the most dangerous 3-4 combo since Ruth-Gehrig and helped Boston capture yet another World Series title in 2007.
However, Manny wore out his welcome in Boston during the '08 season. After an altercation with 64-year old traveling secretary Jack McCormick, and his demands for a trade, the BoSox jettisoned their once-beloved slugger out West, to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Manny blistered NL pitching in his 53 games for the Dodgers that season. He smashed 17 round-trippers in 229 at-bats, while reaching an ungodly 211 wRC+ for his brief time in L.A. during '08.
This performance got him another big payday. In March of 2009, he inked a two-year contract for $45 million to remain in Dodger blue. Mannywood failed to come to fruition because it was discovered that Ramirez had tested positive for hCG, a drug used by dopers to come off their recent steroid cycles. Manny was suspended 50 games in 2009 and his legacy was substantially damaged. Although he posted solid numbers to round out '09 (.290/.418/.538, 145 wRC+), his 2010 season left a bad taste in the mouth of Dodger fans. Manny began to sit out games with phantom injuries in 2010, which ultimately caused Dodger management to ship Ramirez off to the Chicago White Sox. He underwhelmed in Chicago slugging a lowly .319, which again brought his hustle and character into question.
This brings us up to date on the slugger. Manny went just 1-for-17 as a Ray before news broke of yet another PED violation, this one carrying a mandatory 100-game suspension. Instead of taking his lumps like a man, honoring his contract and possibly taking some of the tarnish of his credibility, Manny was Manny and opted to hang 'em up.
I'm not mad and I don't blame him. This is where I'm different than most of us in Rays Nation.
He's a legend and would get my vote for the Hall of Fame if I could cast a ballot. This is where I'm different than virtually every MLB media pundit.
I understand his steroid use is a definite blemish on the game. That is without question.
What should be in question is the reliability and integrity of those same pundits who have been covering our great game. These are the same people who were beating a path to Ramirez' locker while he put up his bloated numbers from '93 til his dirty test in 2009. Tom Verducci and Ken Rosenthal proclaim their non-vote for Manny on national TV. But where were these outspoken, upstanding remarks during the 25 plus seasons of the Steroid era? What hypocrites! All these beat writers, SI editors, and baseball insiders who were in the locker rooms, on the fields and in the press boxes, watching guys hulk up over the Steroid Era are a joke. They were suckling at the teat of Manny and other drug-abusers 10 years ago, now they step out like they're profound and sterling in reputation, to bash a fallen star.
I have a theory: The most outspoken, anti-juicers covering the game today are likely the same who have the most guilt for letting it happen for so long.
That's why instead of hating on Manny Ramirez, I celebrate a great career, and acknowledge that a once-in-a-lifetime entertainer has called it quits. His 555 HR (14th all-time) and 1831 RBI (18th all-time) should be celebrated, not frowned upon. It's too difficult to figure out who was or wasn't juicing from this era, and unless we're going to scrap this whole generation of ballplayers, we're going to have to learn to embrace some of these "bad guys". So long Manny Ramirez, no let's hope the Rays can get a friggin' hit!
Unlike many Rays fans, I'm not that steamed at Ramirez. We knew about Manny's track record of pushing down elderly traveling secretaries. We knew about his holding teams hostage with vague injuries and attitude problems. We knew of his dabbling in female fertility drugs. How could we realistically expect ANYTHING from him? Players and writers were buzzing over the shape Ramirez was in this Spring. His latest transgression against the MLB/MLBPA's joint venture against PEDs is likely the reason he was looking so stout. But at 38 years of age, did we really think Manny was gonna be a true game-changer in his Tampa Bay duds?
Optimistically, I'd only expected around 300 plate appearances from the dreaded derelict. While this certainly won't happen, and Tampa Bay fans will likely never get an explanation as to the precise events surrounding Manny's downfall, I am truly surprised about the amount of negative press Manny Ramirez has received to close the final chapter of his career. So instead of bashing him, I'm going to celebrate this guy, who in my opinion was the best right-handed hitter of his era.
Manny's rookie year was the strike shortened season of 1994. From the get-go Ramirez displayed a propensity for power, as he slugged a solid .521. His power-packed effort wasn't enough to garner the Rookie of the Year in '94, and he was edged out by household name Bob Hamelin for the award.
In his next season, Manny broke out for a triple slash line of .308/.402/.558, helping the Cleveland Indians to their first pennant in over four decades. 1995 also marked the first season in which Manny would clock 30 home runs. He reached this plateau in 11 more seasons, placing him behind only Hank Aaron (15), Alex Rodriguez (14 and counting), Barry Bonds (14), Babe Ruth (13) and Mike Schmidt (13) for number of 30+ HR campaigns. And for those of you who are more sabermetrically-inclined, 1995 also began a stretch of 16 seasons in which Man-Ram would log a wRC+ of at least 140.
Manny would bang away in Cleveland through the 2000 season, amassing 236 HR and 804 RBI in his eight seasons with the Tribe. Following the 2000 season, the Boston Red Sox and Ramirez agreed to terms on an 8-year/$200 million deal, which at the time was the most lucrative contract in professional sports history.
It's with the Red Sox that Manny broke out of his shell, giving us the precocious left fielder who would high five fans mid-catch, sneak away to take a leak in the Green Monster and help Boston break up the Curse of the Bambino. It's hard to pick one season as Manny's best in Boston because they were all pretty darned good. He clotted 274 bombs in his eight seasons in Beantown, posting a .312/.411/.588 line there. His time in Boston yielded a batting title in '02 (.349) and a home run title in '04 (43) to go along with his World Series MVP in that historic 2004 title run for the Sox. In teaming up with Big Papi David Ortiz, the duo produced the most dangerous 3-4 combo since Ruth-Gehrig and helped Boston capture yet another World Series title in 2007.
However, Manny wore out his welcome in Boston during the '08 season. After an altercation with 64-year old traveling secretary Jack McCormick, and his demands for a trade, the BoSox jettisoned their once-beloved slugger out West, to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Manny blistered NL pitching in his 53 games for the Dodgers that season. He smashed 17 round-trippers in 229 at-bats, while reaching an ungodly 211 wRC+ for his brief time in L.A. during '08.
This performance got him another big payday. In March of 2009, he inked a two-year contract for $45 million to remain in Dodger blue. Mannywood failed to come to fruition because it was discovered that Ramirez had tested positive for hCG, a drug used by dopers to come off their recent steroid cycles. Manny was suspended 50 games in 2009 and his legacy was substantially damaged. Although he posted solid numbers to round out '09 (.290/.418/.538, 145 wRC+), his 2010 season left a bad taste in the mouth of Dodger fans. Manny began to sit out games with phantom injuries in 2010, which ultimately caused Dodger management to ship Ramirez off to the Chicago White Sox. He underwhelmed in Chicago slugging a lowly .319, which again brought his hustle and character into question.
This brings us up to date on the slugger. Manny went just 1-for-17 as a Ray before news broke of yet another PED violation, this one carrying a mandatory 100-game suspension. Instead of taking his lumps like a man, honoring his contract and possibly taking some of the tarnish of his credibility, Manny was Manny and opted to hang 'em up.
I'm not mad and I don't blame him. This is where I'm different than most of us in Rays Nation.
He's a legend and would get my vote for the Hall of Fame if I could cast a ballot. This is where I'm different than virtually every MLB media pundit.
I understand his steroid use is a definite blemish on the game. That is without question.
What should be in question is the reliability and integrity of those same pundits who have been covering our great game. These are the same people who were beating a path to Ramirez' locker while he put up his bloated numbers from '93 til his dirty test in 2009. Tom Verducci and Ken Rosenthal proclaim their non-vote for Manny on national TV. But where were these outspoken, upstanding remarks during the 25 plus seasons of the Steroid era? What hypocrites! All these beat writers, SI editors, and baseball insiders who were in the locker rooms, on the fields and in the press boxes, watching guys hulk up over the Steroid Era are a joke. They were suckling at the teat of Manny and other drug-abusers 10 years ago, now they step out like they're profound and sterling in reputation, to bash a fallen star.
I have a theory: The most outspoken, anti-juicers covering the game today are likely the same who have the most guilt for letting it happen for so long.
That's why instead of hating on Manny Ramirez, I celebrate a great career, and acknowledge that a once-in-a-lifetime entertainer has called it quits. His 555 HR (14th all-time) and 1831 RBI (18th all-time) should be celebrated, not frowned upon. It's too difficult to figure out who was or wasn't juicing from this era, and unless we're going to scrap this whole generation of ballplayers, we're going to have to learn to embrace some of these "bad guys". So long Manny Ramirez, no let's hope the Rays can get a friggin' hit!
Friday, April 8, 2011
Wait, Why'd We let that Guy go Again?
This is the question I, and likely tons of other Rays fans, was asking after Edwin Jackson struck out a career-high 13 batters in his dominating performance Thursday against Tampa Bay. Jackson, who also owns a no-hitter vs. the Rays, was once in our ranks, one of the good guys. I can remember, can you? Think back to '08, when Edwin was tied for the staff lead in wins at 14. Remember? Oh, I'm sure you do.
After I watched Matt Joyce flail at the final pitch of yesterday's game, I finally realized that Joyce was on the other side of the Jackson deal back in '08. I always forget that when I see Matt Joyce running around in the outfield, we should, instead have Edwin on the mound. While this deal is likely to end up being Andrew Friedman's biggest boner, I began to run through all the positive trades Friedman had pulled off since the start of his tenure following the close of the 2005 season.
In doing research for this piece, I found my premise was dangerously close to this well-written article over at draysbay.com. But on a day in which the St. Pete Times Sports section is asking "When is it going to stop?", I've decided to try and give Rays fans something to feel good about. That something being a spotlight on just how brilliant Friedman's wheelings and dealings have been in his five years in St. Petersburg.
My findings were a bit surprising, in that Mr. Friedman's front office has stayed rather busy over his time as de facto GM. This busyness has yielded some 33 trades, many of which were hardly noteworthy, but are the norm for any small market team quarrying for major league talent. My goal, unlike the aforementioned article, is to list Friedman's five greatest heists. So without further adieu....
5. 6/2706: Traded Toby Hall/Mark Hendrickson/$$$ to the L.A. Dodgers for Dioner Navarro/Jae Seo.
In keeping with this blog's love affair with Navarro, he kicks off this list. Pretty Simple here. Hall never panned out, Seo didn't either. The gangly Hendrickson posted more WAR throughout the remainder of his career, but Navarro was a fan favorite and played a pivotal position for the '08 pennant winners. Also in 2008, Navarro was a member of the AL All-Stars, and batted .295 while collecting a solid 3.0 WAR for the season.
4. 1/14/06: Traded Danys Baez/Lance Carter to the L.A. Dodgers for Edwin Jackson and a minor leaguer.
Both Baez and Carter were essentially done with baseball after this trade. As we know, Jackson is far from finished in the Show. But taking a look at his time with the Rays, it's easy to understand why Friedman was willing to part with the then 25-year old Jackson. He posted back-to-back seasons with ERAs above 5.00, and only accumulated 3.0 WAR in his three seasons as a Ray ('06-'08). Mentioned above, Friedman parlayed Jackson into Matt Joyce on 12/10/08, and Matt has since given Tampa Bay 1.8 WAR. The first trade was a solid move, and the second one has yet to be seen. But anytime you
net 5 WAR from the likes of Danys Baez and Lance Carter, you've spun gold.
3. 12/3/07: Traded Elijah Dukes to the Washington Nationals for minor leaguer Glenn Gibson.
Gibson is no longer with the Rays, so how is it that this could be considered one of Andrew Friedman's shining moments? Despite losing the talented Dukes for a minor leaguer, this trade set the tone for the 2008 team. It was a message that we would no longer wipe the drivel from the mouth of the troubled Dukes' mouth, or any other malcontent for that matter, and that the organization was serious about winning going forward. This set the tone for the '08 pennant winners and still resonates with the team in 2011. Dukes did post a solid 2008 season getting on base at .386 clip, while slugging a stout .478. However, it was Dukes character issues that finally spelled the end of his baseball career. He's now out of baseball and looking at jail time following yet another arrest in March of 2011. It's a sad story for sure, but Friedman was on top of his game in making this trade.
2. 11/3/09: Traded Akinori Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jesse Chavez. Then on 12/11/09: Traded Jesse Chavez to the Atlanta Braves for Rafael Soriano.
This one is a twofer for the obvious reason that Jesse Chavez never pitched an inning for the Rays, primarily based on the fact that he was only on the Rays' roster for a little over a month, with that month being November. Chavez has struggled with command issues and has yet to become a viable major league relief option. Aki bounced from Pittsburgh to Oakland before landing back in his native Japan, unable to compete any further against MLB pitching. Soriano, on the other hand, dominated the AL last season with a 1.73 ERA and a league-high 45 saves, which helped lead the Rays to their second division title in three year. This maneuver displays Friedman's craftiness in dealing with the Rays' monetary constraints, while still being able to field a competitive squad.
1. 11/28/07: Traded Brendan Harris/Jason Pridie/Delmon Young to the Minnesota Twins for Matt Garza/Jason Bartlett/a minor leaguer.
Harris and Pridie have not panned out as legit MLB players. And like headcase Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young had worn his welcome in Tampa Bay after various run-ins with manager Joe Maddon concerning his attitude and occasional lack of hustle. In return, the Rays received Garza and Bartlett, who both became impact players for the '08 AL champs.
Delmon Young finally appears to be able to hit big league pitching after having below average showings in '08 and '09. In 2010, he batted .293 while slugging .493.
Both Bartlett and Garza were dealt in the 2010-2011 offseason, but each had a remarkable run during their time in Tampa Bay. Bartlett batted .288 for the Rays, and earned an All-Star appearance in 2009. Garza averaged over 197 innings pitched with a 3.86 ERA in his three years with the Rays.
In terms of WAR, the Rays dominated this exchange. Young posted negative WAR in his first two seasons for Minnesota, and has a cumulative 0.3 WAR in his three seasons there, put together. In this same period, Garza (7.9) and Bartlett (7.4) combined for 15.3 WAR, netting the Rays 15 wins above replacement.
While Young, who is only 25 years old, will likely post numbers with greater consistency going forward, both Bartlett and Garza have been converted into an assortment of young players, who are likely to continue to give the Rays the value-edge in this trade.
Based on past results and the promising future, I have no choice but to make this #1 out of Friedman's trades.
After I watched Matt Joyce flail at the final pitch of yesterday's game, I finally realized that Joyce was on the other side of the Jackson deal back in '08. I always forget that when I see Matt Joyce running around in the outfield, we should, instead have Edwin on the mound. While this deal is likely to end up being Andrew Friedman's biggest boner, I began to run through all the positive trades Friedman had pulled off since the start of his tenure following the close of the 2005 season.
In doing research for this piece, I found my premise was dangerously close to this well-written article over at draysbay.com. But on a day in which the St. Pete Times Sports section is asking "When is it going to stop?", I've decided to try and give Rays fans something to feel good about. That something being a spotlight on just how brilliant Friedman's wheelings and dealings have been in his five years in St. Petersburg.
My findings were a bit surprising, in that Mr. Friedman's front office has stayed rather busy over his time as de facto GM. This busyness has yielded some 33 trades, many of which were hardly noteworthy, but are the norm for any small market team quarrying for major league talent. My goal, unlike the aforementioned article, is to list Friedman's five greatest heists. So without further adieu....
5. 6/2706: Traded Toby Hall/Mark Hendrickson/$$$ to the L.A. Dodgers for Dioner Navarro/Jae Seo.
In keeping with this blog's love affair with Navarro, he kicks off this list. Pretty Simple here. Hall never panned out, Seo didn't either. The gangly Hendrickson posted more WAR throughout the remainder of his career, but Navarro was a fan favorite and played a pivotal position for the '08 pennant winners. Also in 2008, Navarro was a member of the AL All-Stars, and batted .295 while collecting a solid 3.0 WAR for the season.
4. 1/14/06: Traded Danys Baez/Lance Carter to the L.A. Dodgers for Edwin Jackson and a minor leaguer.
Both Baez and Carter were essentially done with baseball after this trade. As we know, Jackson is far from finished in the Show. But taking a look at his time with the Rays, it's easy to understand why Friedman was willing to part with the then 25-year old Jackson. He posted back-to-back seasons with ERAs above 5.00, and only accumulated 3.0 WAR in his three seasons as a Ray ('06-'08). Mentioned above, Friedman parlayed Jackson into Matt Joyce on 12/10/08, and Matt has since given Tampa Bay 1.8 WAR. The first trade was a solid move, and the second one has yet to be seen. But anytime you
net 5 WAR from the likes of Danys Baez and Lance Carter, you've spun gold.
3. 12/3/07: Traded Elijah Dukes to the Washington Nationals for minor leaguer Glenn Gibson.
Gibson is no longer with the Rays, so how is it that this could be considered one of Andrew Friedman's shining moments? Despite losing the talented Dukes for a minor leaguer, this trade set the tone for the 2008 team. It was a message that we would no longer wipe the drivel from the mouth of the troubled Dukes' mouth, or any other malcontent for that matter, and that the organization was serious about winning going forward. This set the tone for the '08 pennant winners and still resonates with the team in 2011. Dukes did post a solid 2008 season getting on base at .386 clip, while slugging a stout .478. However, it was Dukes character issues that finally spelled the end of his baseball career. He's now out of baseball and looking at jail time following yet another arrest in March of 2011. It's a sad story for sure, but Friedman was on top of his game in making this trade.
2. 11/3/09: Traded Akinori Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jesse Chavez. Then on 12/11/09: Traded Jesse Chavez to the Atlanta Braves for Rafael Soriano.
This one is a twofer for the obvious reason that Jesse Chavez never pitched an inning for the Rays, primarily based on the fact that he was only on the Rays' roster for a little over a month, with that month being November. Chavez has struggled with command issues and has yet to become a viable major league relief option. Aki bounced from Pittsburgh to Oakland before landing back in his native Japan, unable to compete any further against MLB pitching. Soriano, on the other hand, dominated the AL last season with a 1.73 ERA and a league-high 45 saves, which helped lead the Rays to their second division title in three year. This maneuver displays Friedman's craftiness in dealing with the Rays' monetary constraints, while still being able to field a competitive squad.
1. 11/28/07: Traded Brendan Harris/Jason Pridie/Delmon Young to the Minnesota Twins for Matt Garza/Jason Bartlett/a minor leaguer.
Harris and Pridie have not panned out as legit MLB players. And like headcase Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young had worn his welcome in Tampa Bay after various run-ins with manager Joe Maddon concerning his attitude and occasional lack of hustle. In return, the Rays received Garza and Bartlett, who both became impact players for the '08 AL champs.
Delmon Young finally appears to be able to hit big league pitching after having below average showings in '08 and '09. In 2010, he batted .293 while slugging .493.
Both Bartlett and Garza were dealt in the 2010-2011 offseason, but each had a remarkable run during their time in Tampa Bay. Bartlett batted .288 for the Rays, and earned an All-Star appearance in 2009. Garza averaged over 197 innings pitched with a 3.86 ERA in his three years with the Rays.
In terms of WAR, the Rays dominated this exchange. Young posted negative WAR in his first two seasons for Minnesota, and has a cumulative 0.3 WAR in his three seasons there, put together. In this same period, Garza (7.9) and Bartlett (7.4) combined for 15.3 WAR, netting the Rays 15 wins above replacement.
While Young, who is only 25 years old, will likely post numbers with greater consistency going forward, both Bartlett and Garza have been converted into an assortment of young players, who are likely to continue to give the Rays the value-edge in this trade.
Based on past results and the promising future, I have no choice but to make this #1 out of Friedman's trades.
What is WAR, ERA+, OPS+, UZR etc.?
It's likely that many of you reading this have a little bit less knowledge as to the alphabet soup of stats used to track MLB player's performance. Confusing matters more, I will be using exclusively fangraphs' metrics from this point forward, while still highlighting basic stats like on-base percentage and home runs, just to make these articles simple enough for a fan at any level of sabermetric knowledge. My reasoning behind aligning myself with the brainiacs at fangraphs.com is simply to streamline my own personal research. This is not to say that I will not use baseball-reference.com any more; they've done baseball fans, and nerds alike, a tremendous service in their fastidious cataloguing of statistics dating back to the 1870s. Love love love that site.
Most of you don't even know what that word "sabermetrics" means. Basically this word defines an ultra-nerdy scientific movement seeking to quantify every facet of baseball through complex mathematical equations. While I may not be the most versed in the sabermetric ways, I have a good base understanding of the math behind it, and certainly live and die by many of these metrics. Any of you who read any portion of my season previews can see the alphabet soup I used in evaluating players and teams, so here's a quick look at what each of these stats mean for those of you too lazy to google them.
OPS+: This is a stat used to measure a player's offensive contributions compared to the league average with a players' home park factored into it as well. Its base is set at 100 for a league-average player; scores 100> = below average, 100< = above league average. This metric is extremely close to fangraphs' wRC+, which, as previously stated, I will be using on this blog going forward.
ERA+ (or ERA- in fangraphs): This is another metric in the vein of OPS+, except it focuses on pitchers' ERA. It is league/park-adjusted and the 100 mark is used to denote a league-average hurler with anything below 100 being sub-par and above 100 being considered above average. For ERA-, a lower number is better, but league average is set to 100.
UZR: This metric is used to quantify a player's total defensive contribution and is also league/park-adjusted. I'm fairly certain that if I even began to explain this stat my head would explode. At minimum my writings would look like character diarrhea all over your screen. So here's a chart displaying the breakdown of UZR with 2010 stats used for the percentiles. Also, here's a link to DRaysBay Editor-in-Chief Steve Slowinski's full explanation of the stat.
UZR/150: This is the same tell-all defensive metric calculated per 150 defensive games.
Note - both UZR uses can be tricky, because there is quite a bit of inconsistencies on a year-to-year basis due in part to the small sample size of defensive data. This stat, however, is the best we have currently and I enjoy it thoroughly.
ISO: Really cool, simple metric. It's a batter slugging percentage minus their batting average. It is used to identify how much power a player really has. (.145 was the 2010 MLB average. Again, courtesy of fangraphs.)
BABIP: This is a two-way metric, used to look at both pitchers and hitters. The acronym stands for batting average on balls in play, and means just that. It measures the number of balls in play that went for hits. For hitters, this is their batted balls. For pitchers, it's simply an average of the balls hitters put in play against him that went for hits. League average hovers around .300, so any hitter that is above it is likely to see a fall in performance. And, any pitcher that is above .300, has likely been a victim of circumstance, and should see a better ERA down the road. The stat works both ways for performance prediction; performances above expected levels (give or take .300 for a given season) will likely regress, while those below this number can expect an uptick in their numbers.
WAR: This is the grandaddy of 'em all! This is a sabemetricians' attempt to calculate the entire on-field value (offense, defense, baserunning, pitching, etc) for any player and assigning it a value that is equal to the number of wins the player produced above replacement value. Replacement value is assumed to be a Triple-A call up or their ilk. There are two camps here; on one side is Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com, and on the other, is Dave Cameron at fangraphs. Both metrics work the same way, however, their numbers are always different due to separate calculating methods. In my previous writings I used Sean Smith's WAR, but will now exclusively use Dave Cameron's method. So if you see WAR from here on out, you'll know I'm speaking of the stat kept over at fangraphs.com.
Most of you don't even know what that word "sabermetrics" means. Basically this word defines an ultra-nerdy scientific movement seeking to quantify every facet of baseball through complex mathematical equations. While I may not be the most versed in the sabermetric ways, I have a good base understanding of the math behind it, and certainly live and die by many of these metrics. Any of you who read any portion of my season previews can see the alphabet soup I used in evaluating players and teams, so here's a quick look at what each of these stats mean for those of you too lazy to google them.
OPS+: This is a stat used to measure a player's offensive contributions compared to the league average with a players' home park factored into it as well. Its base is set at 100 for a league-average player; scores 100> = below average, 100< = above league average. This metric is extremely close to fangraphs' wRC+, which, as previously stated, I will be using on this blog going forward.
ERA+ (or ERA- in fangraphs): This is another metric in the vein of OPS+, except it focuses on pitchers' ERA. It is league/park-adjusted and the 100 mark is used to denote a league-average hurler with anything below 100 being sub-par and above 100 being considered above average. For ERA-, a lower number is better, but league average is set to 100.
 |
| Courtesy of fangraphs.com |
UZR/150: This is the same tell-all defensive metric calculated per 150 defensive games.
Note - both UZR uses can be tricky, because there is quite a bit of inconsistencies on a year-to-year basis due in part to the small sample size of defensive data. This stat, however, is the best we have currently and I enjoy it thoroughly.
ISO: Really cool, simple metric. It's a batter slugging percentage minus their batting average. It is used to identify how much power a player really has. (.145 was the 2010 MLB average. Again, courtesy of fangraphs.)
BABIP: This is a two-way metric, used to look at both pitchers and hitters. The acronym stands for batting average on balls in play, and means just that. It measures the number of balls in play that went for hits. For hitters, this is their batted balls. For pitchers, it's simply an average of the balls hitters put in play against him that went for hits. League average hovers around .300, so any hitter that is above it is likely to see a fall in performance. And, any pitcher that is above .300, has likely been a victim of circumstance, and should see a better ERA down the road. The stat works both ways for performance prediction; performances above expected levels (give or take .300 for a given season) will likely regress, while those below this number can expect an uptick in their numbers.
WAR: This is the grandaddy of 'em all! This is a sabemetricians' attempt to calculate the entire on-field value (offense, defense, baserunning, pitching, etc) for any player and assigning it a value that is equal to the number of wins the player produced above replacement value. Replacement value is assumed to be a Triple-A call up or their ilk. There are two camps here; on one side is Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com, and on the other, is Dave Cameron at fangraphs. Both metrics work the same way, however, their numbers are always different due to separate calculating methods. In my previous writings I used Sean Smith's WAR, but will now exclusively use Dave Cameron's method. So if you see WAR from here on out, you'll know I'm speaking of the stat kept over at fangraphs.com.
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