The Breakdown: Jeff Niemann vs. Twins, 4/28/11

Jeff Niemann continued his up-and-down 2011 Thursday, taking a no-hitter into the seventh against the Twins.  On the heels of his previous start against the White Sox, one in which Niemann struggled through four and 2/3 innings, yielding five earned with six hits, two walks and two hit-batters, I was relieved that Jeff was able to nail down the sweep in Minnesota.

However, this start did little to assuage my fears of a potential "dead arm" situation that seems to be looming over the Rays' heads. After tossing only 84 pitches, Maddon opted to go with the bullpen as Niemann's velocity was beginning to deteriorate over the course of his seven innings. The velocity and tailing action was down on Jeff's two-seamer compared to his season averages, as was the slide on his slider, thus giving Niemann a lowly two strikeouts. His command wasn't on point either; throwing 52 strikes against 32 balls and just 11 first pitch strikes in the 23 batters he faced.

So how exactly did he blank the Twinkies for so long if his best stuff and command were so fleeting?

He used a little more than that 6'9", 260 lb hulking physique. He used that little thing between his ears. He opted to increase the number of four-seamers he was throwing and finally began to get the ball down.

Here's Jeff's previous start vs. Chicago:

Stolen from TexasLeaguers.com

Here's Thursday vs Minnesota:

Stolen from TexasLeaguers.com

We see almost a complete flip-flop in where Jeff is pitching in the two starts. In spite of the garden variety of his problems, I am encouraged to see that Jeff was able to beat his fastball down. And, interestingly enough, at least to me, is what Jeff did even when he missed the zone altogether. You can see through the charts that against Chicago, the ball was sailing up at the top of and above the zone. On Thursday, Jeff was able to be "wildly effective", throwing nearly as many balls as strikes in the lower portion of the zone and outside of it.

In a stroke of analytical genius, I took that first chart into Preview (Mac users know!) and rotated it to the right twice and put it next to yesterday's chart. Look:

Pitching > Throwing.

And in one final (ab)use of the lovely graphs provided by the kind people at Texas Leaguers, is this highly cluttered one featuring every pitch location for Jeff Niemann since his downfall began on August 25 of last season.

Horse = beaten to death.

Rays Farm Report April '11

Just two weeks into the minor league season and the Rays bevy of young talent has already shown the glimmers of hope that netted the organization the second best farm system ranking according to the scouting gurus at Baseball America.

With that being said, 15 games is entirely too small of a sample size to get off on.  I must also preface this bit with a disclaimer as to my actual scouting/MLB talent evaluation credibility; it's nonexistent.  My research techniques included googling "baseball america top prospects rays" and "rays minor league affiliates".  However, this is likely more than anyone reading this has done.

One final set of notes. I am not discussing career Quadruple-A guys like Mike Eckstrom and Justin Ruggiano.  Instead, I really just want to take a look at young guys and what they're progress is within the organization.  I won't be talking about Jeremy Hellickson or Jake McGee as they are already contributing to the parent club.  And top prospects/2010 first-rounders Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner and Drew Vittleson will begin their season at Rookie ball next month with the Princeton Rays, so I'll hold off on discussing them until they begin play.

What I have left, is a dirty dozen of ball players that I'll be monitoring throughout their minor league endeavors in 2011.  Players are listed with their current position, expected time of arrival to the majors and their preseason rank within the Rays organization, according to Baseball America, in parenthesis.

12.  Robinson Chirinos - C - ETA 2011 (18) - Picked up in the Garza-Cubs trade, the 26-year old destroyed minor league pitching at Double and Triple-A last season in the Cubs system, posting a stout .326/.416/.583 line.  So far in 2011, Chirinos has seen a slow start, batting just .192/.276/.192 in 52 ABs at Durham.  His career numbers and age plus his battle with Durham's incumbent catcher, Jose Lobaton, could prevent him from making a splash in St. Pete, but his stats in 2010 make him a point of interest.

11.  Nick Barnese - RHP - ETA 2013 (15) - Barnese is a control artist who features a fastball with a ton of movement.  He's just 22 years of age and already holds a career 2.94 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP in 312.0 innings of minor league ball.  Though he's off to a slow start at Double-A Montgomery (6.39 ERA in 3 starts), his main problem in reaching the majors is the glut of pitchers ahead of him in the organization.

10.  Jake Thompson - RHP - ETA 2013 (13) - After posting a solid 1.06 ERA in 51.0 innings at Advanced-A ball, Thompson has returned to Charlotte, posting a solid 4.05 ERA in his first 3 starts of the season.  At 21, Thompson has a big frame (6'3", 225) and a big fastball (tops out at 97 MPH) that he may be able to ride to the bigs.  However, his slider is considered 3rd best among current Rays prospects and has him on my radar.

9.  Alex Colome - RHP - ETA 2013 (9) - Colome is 22-years old and features the organization's top right-handed fastball.  He used the pitch to strikeout 126 batters in only 118 frames last season.  This season his strikeout rate has fallen a bit and he's sporty an unnervingly high 7.64 ERA through his first four starts at Advanced-A Charlotte.  In his defense, the ERA is skewed from his 2011 debut in which he went just 1.2 innings, yielding 7 earned.  He's surrendered 8 earned runs in his last three outings.

8.  Alex Cobb - RHP - ETA 2012 (20) - Yet another right-hander is the 23-year old Cobb, who mowed down more than a batter an inning and donned a 2.71 ERA for the Double-A Biscuits in 2010.  Cobb uses a plus changeup with solid control to keep hitters guessing.  Parlaying his 2010 success, Cobb has a  2.05 ERA through his first four starts with Durham.  His ETA is 2012 based, in part, to the fact that his stuff isn't overwhelming.

7.  Tim Beckham - SS - ETA 2012 (19) - After garnering an ungodly $6.15 million signing bonus, Beckham has also garnered the tag of "bust".  While it's unlikely he'll ever live up to the one-time hype, he possesses the typical athletic abilities that we love in our Rays.  He hit just .256 at Single-A in 2010, displaying zero power (.359 slug.) and poor plate discipline (119 K's in 465 ABs).  However, at just 21 years of age, Beckham may still develop into a Major Leaguer.  At Double-A this season, he's hitting .286 and slugging .444.  His ETA is 2012, but he may never even make the bigs.  I admit that the only reason I have him included here is because he is a former #1 overall pick and we've invested a substantial amount of money in him.

6.  Alex Torres - LHP - ETA 2011 (7) - Torres is the 23-year old lefty we picked up in the Kazmir-Anges deal back in '09.  Last season, he averaged more than a strikeout per inning and posted a 3.47 ERA at Triple-A Durham.  Torres possesses a Major League-ready changeup to accompany a plus fastball.  In 2011, Torres has been unhittable, boasting a microscopic 0.848 WHIP to go along with a chintzy 0.59 ERA, earning him Pitcher of the Week honors for the Bulls.  Granted, this is a small sample size, I'm encouraged by the fact that the Rays added him to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid anyone trying to snatch him up in the Rule 5 Draft, displaying to me that they have confidence in his ability to give something to the big league club as soon as 2011.

5.  Chris Archer - RHP - ETA 2012 (4) - At 22, Archer was the centerpiece of the prospect-laden Garza deal.  At High-A and Double-A last year, he put up a solid 2.34 ERA.  His slider grades out as the best among Rays prospects, which along with his plus fastball and sizable frame (6'3", 185), have generated national recognition for his future.  So far in 2011, Archer has battled with his long running control issues, thus giving him a rather high 6.39 ERA at Double-A Montgomery.  Too early to make any guesses, but I suspect the Rays will coddle his young arm and he could have an impact on the MLB team as early as 2012.

4.  Brandon Guyer - RF - ETA 2011 (12) - Another piece from the Garza heist, the 25-year old Guyer owns a career .296/.355/.472 triple slash in the minors.  Guyer has also displayed steady defense and solid speed (60 SB vs. 10 CS in '09-'10).  He's lit up Triple-A to the tune of .358/.411/.627 so far in 2011, and may give Desmond Jennings a run for his money should a spot open up in the Rays outfield in the near future.

3.  Hak-Ju Lee - SS - ETA 2012 (8) - Yet another portion of the plunder taken from the Garza deal is the 20-year old South Korean.  Considered amongst the top gloveman in the Rays ranks, Lee also owns a .302 average in 777 minor league ABs.  Power has been a concern (.386 career SLG), but with a 6'2", 170 lb frame, it's likely he just hasn't grown into his power stroke yet.  He grades out as the organization's best hitter for average and also has plus speed.  At Charlotte this season, he's torched High-A pitching with a .393/.469/.679 line thus far.  It's a foregone conclusion that he will catch Tim Beckham at Double-A and unseat him as the SS there, due to Lee's far-slicker fielding.  With the team already having shopped Reid Brignac in various trade scenarios over the Winter, Lee could claim the Rays job as soon as 2012.  Some are saying he's already a "stronger-armed version of Omar Vizquel," but I would like to give him at least one more season of seasoning before we start casting his bust for Cooperstown.

2.  Desmond Jennings - CF - ETA 2011 (3) - After being sent down for additional hacks in the minors, Jennings has started slow in Triple-A (.266/.413/.391), but his pedigree and solid career numbers land him as my top position player prospect going forward.  While he's been unfairly compared to Carl Crawford, Jennings skill set is filled to the brim at every tool sans power.  He likely won't move B.J. Upton from center, but could be in the Rays lineup at any point this season.  He's displayed plate discipline beyond his 24 years, and his plus speed and baserunning make him an ideal candidate for the leadoff spot.  Injuries hampered his 2010 output, but I am enthusiastic at the prospect of adding him to the Rays roster as soon as possible.

1.  Matt Moore - LHP - ETA 2011 (2) - At 21, Moore has feasted on weaklings in the minors.  His fastball and curve grade out as the best among all Rays prospects.  However, and bizarrely enough, Moore has already earned the label "slow-starter", struggling early on in both 2009 and 2010 seasons to find his dominant self.  Staying true to the trend, Moore has a 5.89 ERA through his first four starts this season at Double-A.  I'm not deterred because this kid is scary good. Scary good.  In 2010, he was the first minor leaguer to strikeout 200 batters since Francisco Liriano did so in 2005.  His dizzyingly-high SO/9 ratio has hovered around 13 since he's started pitching professionally.  He's being touted as an early-'00s Barry Zito, with a better fastball.  This guy will likely buzz down batters at Double-A and earn a call up this September, potentially replacing Jeff Niemann by 2012 in the Rays rotation.

Honorable Mention:  Derek Dietrich - SS - ETA 2013 (26) - Coming from a Georgia Tech baseball program that has produced Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek, Mark Teixeira and Matt Weiters over the past couple of decades, Dietrich has garnered marginal consideration from Baseball America, who ranked him as just the 26th best prospect currently in the Rays system.  With 2010 being his first season of professional ball, the 21-year old shortstop posted a respectable .279/.340/.419 line for the Short Season Single-A Hudson Valley Renegades.  This showing earned him a bump up to the Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods, where he has flat-out raked, putting up a .340/.400/.660 triple slash so far this season.  While it's impossible to forecast him doing absolutely anything, it's not impossible to see him as yet another shortstop who laps Tim Beckham in the Rays organizational rungs.  Since I have not discussed many players below the Double-A, level I opted to give my honorable mention nod to Dietrich.

As mentioned above, each of these guys' 2011 stats should be taken with a grain of salt.  But also realize that each of my top 12 has logged multiple seasons of professional ball and the scouts (not just me) love 'em.  It's pretty damned exciting seeing this much premium talent bubbling just beneath the big league surface.  As a Rays fan, you can't help but think that if we can retain a team in the Tampa Bay Area beyond 2012, that it will likely be a competitive group of youngsters, much like the '08 and '10 AL East champion versions of the Rays.

Book Review: The Extra 2% by Jonah Keri

Living in the Tampa Bay Area, I am constantly at odds with the greater sports fandom of America.  I consistently feel like were getting boned on every close call in any Bucs/Lightning/Rays' game, while ESPN and other media outlets refuse to produce even the smallest shred of positive news on our sports franchises.

The Bucs and Lightning have both won their league's title in the last decade but no one seems to care.

Our lowly Rays have captured two division crowns over the past three seasons in the vaunted AL East.  Still, they receive little, if any, positive press.

But finally we have this Jonah Keri thing.  A piece dedicated solely to the merits of our Tampa Bay Rays.  This book is easily the best piece of writing on any of the Tampa Bay sports franchises and a must-read for any diehard fan within the region.

Coming into The Extra 2%, I was already somewhat familiar with Mr. Keri's work, having previously read Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong.  That title provided a whimsical look at statistical oddities within the game of baseball combined with funny little anecdotes repudiating the old-timey train of thought that still pervades the game's modern minds.  With this prior knowledge and the few bits and pieces I'd heard about the book being a business work with some baseball parts, I had my own resignations about the book being perhaps too heady or down right degrading to what the Sternberg/Silverman/Freidman trio have accomplished in their less than six years at the helm.


This is where I was wrong. 


From the onset, the book hooks you with an entertaining view of the history of baseball in the Bay Area and outlines the painstaking efforts of the region to finally land an MLB team.  It goes on to recount the abysmal Naimoli-LaMar era that preceded the current regime.  Then, it goes on to provide amazing incite on exactly how these Wall Street whizzes came to dominate America's pastime on a shoe-string budget by using brain-busting algorithms and clever wheelings and dealings to create baseball's equivalent to arbitrage, thus yielding them the titular extra 2%.


The book is in tune with a younger generation using youthful witticisms, profanity (I really fuckin' love them four letter words!) and a host of colorful vignettes that string together this franchise's brief history in a quick and easy read.  It provides wave after wave of newfangled sabermetric statistical references to reinforce its points, but Keri is not enslaved by these newer metrics, often relying on more basic numbers to convey his point for the layman.  Also, the book accommodates readers of any demographic, with its short chapters, charming biographical bits on the Rays' top brass and manager Joe Maddon as well as Keri's denouncement of the game's two evil empires, the Red Sox and the Yankees, which almost any baseball fan can relate with.


I consider myself a Rays aficionado, but Keri's collection of 175 personally-conducted interviews blew me away, not just with the sheer quantity of knowledge, but with the overwhelming breadth of facts, that I, heretofore, had zero knowledge about.  From the Devil Rays narrowly missing out on the services of both Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira, to the shrewd frugality of Vince Naimoli that damaged the team's brand and community relationship, this book was nearly impossible to put down, as I was constantly intrigued by what new piece of insider information or the next trivial tidbit that lay in wait on each upcoming page.


However, the book is not solely a work of admiration for the Rays; it also serves as a cautionary tale to the Tampa Bay area.  The final chapters wind down, outlining a desperate situation and the precarious state of Major League Baseball in the Bay Area.  Keri emphasizes the need for increased revenue streams, more local fan support and the absolute necessity of a new stadium in Tampa, pointing out that while the concept of contraction is an unlikely scenario, the idea that a business man of Sternberg's esteem may very well move the team or sell it to a less savvy ownership group, which would likely dismantle the current front office and bring back the gloomy feel of a bona fide loser to the Trop.  


I have read many baseball books, but this was the first one by a member of my own generation, and while perhaps not an immediate classic, the book is an absolute must-read for Rays fans.  Go to your library and request it or splurge the $16.49 at Amazon, just do whatever you have to do to get this knowledge in your head, you'll be all the better for it.

Is Big Game James Back?

It's been a while.  As the semester winds down, I, like many of you, am feeling the strain of academia, and have been a bit strapped for time as of late.

Additionally, I've feared that any postings may extinguish the Rays current hot streak.  My superstitiosity borders on Turk Wendell levels.  I mean seriously, every day I settle into the same spot on the same couch to watch the game on the same channel.  And much to the chagrin of my girlfriend, I sit in this same spot screaming at the television, celebrating any hit or strikeout or samfuldery with the kind of revelry that is certainly closer to One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest than the flaccid fan following the Rays have received so far this season.  Whatever.  The cat shoots me dirty looks, likely wondering what kind of savage beast I am.  I am man.  As in caveman.  I like seeing club smash rock far.  Granted I typically watch these games clad in only my underwear, I've been known to don the occasional rally cap, which to this point in the season has netted at least two ninth inning comebacks.  You're welcome Rays.  I do this for you.

Tonight, I broke form and headed over to my local feeding trough to gorge on some chicken wings and Dudetime with some Dudes.  In watching tonight's game, the Rays again jumped White Sox pitching in the opening inning, but were only able score one additional run against John Danks, who pitched a dandy tonight.  

Stealing his thunder was James Shields.  Shields recorded his first complete game since 2008, and required just 105 pitches to get the necessary 27 outs tonight.  Watching the game I noticed that Shields was working smart, not hard.  He dropped the first pitch in there for a strike around 80% of the time, and faced the minimum number of batters in five of nine frames.  The White Sox were kept off balance all night by Shields offspeed pitches, which can be this particular group's kryptonite.  There's no doubt that the Sox can hammer fastballs, however, the team will likely feature a handful of 100-strikeout hitters at the completion of 2011 due to their inability to recognize the breaking pitches. 

But back to Shields and my excitement for the evening.  Upon getting home, I immediately went over to the amazing people at brooksbaseball.net, and nerded out over Shields' Pitch f/x data and strike percentages.  While watching the game I noticed he was working primarily with his soft stuff, but I didn't realize this was a result of his harder pitches failing to find their way into the strike zone.  Shields was only able to get his fastballs (two-seam, four-seam, cutter combined) and sliders over the plate for a strike just a bit more than half of the time, in spite of the fact that his two-seemer and slider showed excellent movement (according to average H-break).  But what Shields did do, was kill the Sox with his curve and changeup, getting those pitches in the strike zone around 90% of the time.  With his fastballs ineffectively wild, Shields actually had to pitch, instead of just throw.  

What does this mean and why should you give a shit?

The quick decline of Shields over the previous two years has been based around his inability to consistently spot his fastball, and an over-reliance on a four-seemer that is nothing more than a below-average pitch.  He throws the pitch harder than ever (actually increased his average velocity in 2010), but he missed his targets more and more, causing a rise in his BB/9 and HR/9 to go with an insanely-high 5.18 ERA last season.  Teams also made harder contact with the ball, producing higher-than-acceptable HR/FB and FO/GO ratios for Shields in '09 and '10.  While some stat geeks point out that Shields was victimized by a rather high BABIP in 2010, not all of the swelling was caused by sheer bad luck, some part owed to Shields piss-poor play on the field.  Either way, Shields was already pegged by the sabermetrics' community to have a rebound year based on his solid career ERA- and reasonable FIP last season, but he's taken this one step further early in 2011.

No longer relying on his fastball to navigate his way through lineups, he's now turned to his trusty changeup, utilizing this pitch more than any other (~30% of his pitches).  Coupled with the change, is his curveball, which he is using roughly 20% of the time with above-average vertical movement (-10.45 avg. vert. movement tonight, filthy).  His changeup is a legitimate tool and hardly something new to AL batters.  In '07 and '09, his changeup was the 1st and 4th best in baseball according to wCH, a crazy metric at fangraphs designed to assign runs above average to a particular pitch.  What makes this pitch so devastating?  Based on Pitch f/x mapping, his release points for his four-seamer and change were nearly identical in 2010, however, the change arrives at the plate seven miles an hour slower than the fastball, making hitters bats appear to have holes in them.  So far this season, he's using his soft pitches to setup a plus two-seamer and a put-away slider from his vast repertoire, consistently keeping hitters off balance and unable to square up the ball for power.

I know I've probably lost everyone reading this with my over-the-top schtick and intense usage of metrics that beckon the question is there anything that isn't counted, measured and graphed in today's game?  

So in review and in more simplistic terms, Shields has relied less on his fastball that got slapped around the last couple of years, instead going with an improving curve and a top notch change for 50% of his pitches.  With his ability to spot these pitches in the zone, Shields is pitching to contact, considerably weaker contact, which the steady Rays defense is gobbling up.  If he can stick with this new formula, expect a return to form for Big Game James, who'll hopefully have another chance to pitch in some big games this October.

2010 Rays in 2011

There is a growing sentiment among some Rays fans that the 2011 version of the Tampa Bay Rays were doomed from the onset, thanks to the losses of quite few of our key contributors from the 2010 squad.  These people are bozos.

Let's take a look at what our lineup could look like (fingers crossed!!!):

Stats are batting average/on-base/slugging.  Bold indicates the departed Rays.

1.  SS - Jason Bartlett   .148/.233/.148
2.  LF - Carl Crawford   .132/.175/.132
3.  CF - B.J. Upton   .290/.371/.548
4.  1B - Carlos Pena   .190/.333/.238
5.  RF - Ben Zobrist   .147/.237/.294
6.  DH - Dan Johnson   .088/.139/.206
7.  C - Kelly Shoppach   .200/.250/200
8.  3B - Willy Aybar   He's still a free agent.
9.  2B - Sean Rodriguez   .250/.294/.625

Ok, upset that I actually set a lineup with just eight guys. Here:

1.  SS - Jason Bartlett   .148/.233/.148

2.  LF - Carl Crawford   .132/.175/.132

3.  CF - B.J. Upton   .290/.371/.548

4.  1B - Carlos Pena   .190/.333/.238

5.  RF - Ben Zobrist   .147/.237/.294

6.  DH - Dan Johnson   .088/.139/.206

7.  C - Kelly Shoppach   .200/.250/200

8.  2B - Reid Brignac   .176/.263/.176

9.  3B - Sean Rodriguez   .250/.294/.625

Happy now?

I didn't cherry pick here.  Matt Joyce (.130/.259/.217) and John Jaso (.067/.125/.067) would not be good enough to crack my "optimal" lineup.  The Rays are hitting a combined line of .163/.232/.284.  If we had the Bartlett/Crawford/Pena-trio back in the Bay, we'd actually be doing worse.

Here's the rotation.

1.  David Price   0-2, 4.85 ERA in 13.0 innings

2.  Matt Garza   0-1, 5.68 ERA in 12.2 innings

3.  James Shields   0-1, 4.73 ERA in 13.1 innings

4.  Jeff Niemann   0-2, 8.31 ERA in 8.2 innings

5.  Wade Davis   0-2, 4.38 ERA in 12.1 innings

And the bullpen...

Rafael Soriano   9.82 ERA, 3 K in 4 appearances

Joaquin Benoit   0.00 ERA, 2 K in 4 appearances

Grant Balfour   5.40 ERA, 3 K in 4 appearances

Dan Wheeler   11.57 ERA, 1 K in 3 appearances

Andy Sonnanstine   2.70 ERA, 2 K in 3 appearances

Jake McGee   6.75 ERA, 2 K in 5 appearances

Ladies and gentlemen, there's your 2010 Tampa Bay Rays (in 2011)!

Let's not forget to subtract players added via trades:

Sam Fuld (.130/.320/.318)

Cesar Ramos (3.86 ERA, 1 K in 4 appearances)

Adam Russell (2.70 ERA, 2 K in 5 appearances)

Fuld's triple slash doesn't include his 5-for-5 in steal attempts or the three runs he saved with that insane catch Saturday.  With Garza in the rotation, we wouldn't have gotten to see Jeremy Hellickson in the rotation or his 10-strikeout game last Thursday.

Of the seven big names we lost over the offseason, just Benoit has delivered anywhere in the realm of his 2010 numbers, with the other six being just as crumby as the current Rays' current cast.  

Do I really think Crawford isn't going to get it together?  Do I think Pena won't hit some homers?  Do I think Soriano won't find his rhythm?  

No, of course they will.  And our 2011 Rays will get their hits and make their pitches.  It's way too early to start getting worried, there's 153 games left on the schedule, and all teams go through rough patches over the course of the Summer.  Our's just came in the Spring.  It's not time to to get down on the boys, it's time to get your ass to the Trop and scream and yell and support these guys.  

   

Manny was Manny

I've sat and waited for the gutless Ramirez to make a public statement regarding his latest misadventure.  Nothing from Manny.  Apparently he's comfortable slinking away, hiding in the shadows or going to Spain or whatever it is that he is going to do now that his playing days are over.

Unlike many Rays fans, I'm not that steamed at Ramirez.  We knew about Manny's track record of pushing down elderly traveling secretaries.  We knew about his holding teams hostage with vague injuries and attitude problems.  We knew of his dabbling in female fertility drugs.  How could we realistically expect ANYTHING from him?  Players and writers were buzzing over the shape Ramirez was in this Spring.  His latest transgression against the MLB/MLBPA's joint venture against PEDs is likely the reason he was looking so stout.  But at 38 years of age, did we really think Manny was gonna be a true game-changer in his Tampa Bay duds?

Optimistically, I'd only expected around 300 plate appearances from the dreaded derelict.  While this certainly won't happen, and Tampa Bay fans will likely never get an explanation as to the precise events surrounding Manny's downfall, I am truly surprised about the amount of negative press Manny Ramirez has received to close the final chapter of his career.  So instead of bashing him, I'm going to celebrate this guy, who in my opinion was the best right-handed hitter of his era.

Manny's rookie year was the strike shortened season of 1994.  From the get-go Ramirez displayed a propensity for power, as he slugged a solid .521.  His power-packed effort wasn't enough to garner the Rookie of the Year in '94, and he was edged out by household name Bob Hamelin for the award.

In his next season, Manny broke out for a triple slash line of .308/.402/.558, helping the Cleveland Indians to their first pennant in over four decades.  1995 also marked the first season in which Manny would clock 30 home runs.  He reached this plateau in 11 more seasons, placing him behind only Hank Aaron (15),  Alex Rodriguez (14 and counting), Barry Bonds (14), Babe Ruth (13) and Mike Schmidt (13) for number of 30+ HR campaigns.  And for those of you who are more sabermetrically-inclined, 1995 also began a stretch of 16 seasons in which Man-Ram would log a wRC+ of at least 140.

Manny would bang away in Cleveland through the 2000 season, amassing 236 HR and 804 RBI in his eight seasons with the Tribe.  Following the 2000 season, the Boston Red Sox and Ramirez agreed to terms on an 8-year/$200 million deal, which at the time was the most lucrative contract in professional sports history.

It's with the Red Sox that Manny broke out of his shell, giving us the precocious left fielder who would high five fans mid-catch, sneak away to take a leak in the Green Monster and help Boston break up the Curse of the Bambino.  It's hard to pick one season as Manny's best in Boston because they were all pretty darned good.  He clotted 274 bombs in his eight seasons in Beantown, posting a .312/.411/.588 line there.  His time in Boston yielded a batting title in '02 (.349) and a home run title in '04 (43) to go along with his World Series MVP in that historic 2004 title run for the Sox.  In teaming up with Big Papi David Ortiz, the duo produced the most dangerous 3-4 combo since Ruth-Gehrig and helped Boston capture yet another World Series title in 2007.

However, Manny wore out his welcome in Boston during the '08 season.  After an altercation with 64-year old traveling secretary Jack McCormick, and his demands for a trade, the BoSox jettisoned their once-beloved slugger out West, to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Manny blistered NL pitching in his 53 games for the Dodgers that season.  He smashed 17 round-trippers in 229 at-bats, while reaching an ungodly 211 wRC+ for his brief time in L.A. during '08.

This performance got him another big payday.  In March of 2009, he inked a two-year contract for $45 million to remain in Dodger blue.  Mannywood failed to come to fruition because it was discovered that Ramirez had tested positive for hCG, a drug used by dopers to come off their recent steroid cycles.  Manny was suspended 50 games in 2009 and his legacy was substantially damaged. Although he posted solid numbers to round out '09 (.290/.418/.538, 145 wRC+), his 2010 season left a bad taste in the mouth of Dodger fans.  Manny began to sit out games with phantom injuries in 2010, which ultimately caused Dodger management to ship Ramirez off to the Chicago White Sox.  He underwhelmed in Chicago slugging a lowly .319, which again brought his hustle and character into question.

This brings us up to date on the slugger.  Manny went just 1-for-17 as a Ray before news broke of yet another PED violation, this one carrying a mandatory 100-game suspension.  Instead of taking his lumps like a man, honoring his contract and possibly taking some of the tarnish of his credibility, Manny was Manny and opted to hang 'em up.

I'm not mad and I don't blame him.  This is where I'm different than most of us in Rays Nation.

He's a legend and would get my vote for the Hall of Fame if I could cast a ballot.  This is where I'm different than virtually every MLB media pundit.

I understand his steroid use is a definite blemish on the game.  That is without question.

What should be in question is the reliability and integrity of those same pundits who have been covering our great game.  These are the same people who were beating a path to Ramirez' locker while he put up his bloated numbers from '93 til his dirty test in 2009.  Tom Verducci and Ken Rosenthal proclaim their non-vote for Manny on national TV.  But where were these outspoken, upstanding remarks during the 25 plus seasons of the Steroid era?  What hypocrites!  All these beat writers, SI editors, and baseball insiders who were in the locker rooms, on the fields and in the press boxes, watching guys hulk up over the Steroid Era are a joke.  They were suckling at the teat of Manny and other drug-abusers 10 years ago, now they step out like they're profound and sterling in reputation, to bash a fallen star.

I have a theory:  The most outspoken, anti-juicers covering the game today are likely the same who have the most guilt for letting it happen for so long.

That's why instead of hating on Manny Ramirez, I celebrate a great career, and acknowledge that a once-in-a-lifetime entertainer has called it quits.  His 555 HR (14th all-time) and 1831 RBI (18th all-time) should be celebrated, not frowned upon.  It's too difficult to figure out who was or wasn't juicing from this era, and unless we're going to scrap this whole generation of ballplayers, we're going to have to learn to embrace some of these "bad guys".  So long Manny Ramirez, no let's hope the Rays can get a friggin' hit!

Wait, Why'd We let that Guy go Again?

This is the question I, and likely tons of other Rays fans, was asking after Edwin Jackson struck out a career-high 13 batters in his dominating performance Thursday against Tampa Bay.  Jackson, who also owns a no-hitter vs. the Rays, was once in our ranks, one of the good guys.  I can remember, can you?  Think back to '08, when Edwin was tied for the staff lead in wins at 14.  Remember?  Oh, I'm sure you do.

After I watched Matt Joyce flail at the final pitch of yesterday's game, I finally realized that Joyce was on the other side of the Jackson deal back in '08.  I always forget that when I see Matt Joyce running around in the outfield, we should, instead have Edwin on the mound.  While this deal is likely to end up being Andrew Friedman's biggest boner, I began to run through all the positive trades Friedman had pulled off since the start of his tenure following the close of the 2005 season.

In doing research for this piece, I found my premise was dangerously close to this well-written article over at draysbay.com.  But on a day in which the St. Pete Times Sports section is asking "When is it going to stop?", I've decided to try and give Rays fans something to feel good about.  That something being a spotlight on just how brilliant Friedman's wheelings and dealings have been in his five years in St. Petersburg.

My findings were a bit surprising, in that Mr. Friedman's front office has stayed rather busy over his time as de facto GM.  This busyness has yielded some 33 trades, many of which were hardly noteworthy, but are the norm for any small market team quarrying for major league talent.  My goal, unlike the aforementioned article, is to list Friedman's five greatest heists.  So without further adieu....


5.  6/2706: Traded Toby Hall/Mark Hendrickson/$$$ to the L.A. Dodgers for Dioner Navarro/Jae Seo.

In keeping with this blog's love affair with Navarro, he kicks off this list.  Pretty Simple here.  Hall never panned out, Seo didn't either.  The gangly Hendrickson posted more WAR throughout the remainder of his career, but Navarro was a fan favorite and played a pivotal position for the '08 pennant winners.  Also in 2008, Navarro was a member of the AL All-Stars, and batted .295 while collecting a solid 3.0 WAR for the season.

4.  1/14/06: Traded Danys Baez/Lance Carter to the L.A. Dodgers for Edwin Jackson and a minor leaguer.

Both Baez and Carter were essentially done with baseball after this trade.  As we know, Jackson is far from finished in the Show.  But taking a look at his time with the Rays, it's easy to understand why Friedman was willing to part with the then 25-year old Jackson.  He posted back-to-back seasons with ERAs above 5.00, and only accumulated 3.0 WAR in his three seasons as a Ray ('06-'08).  Mentioned above, Friedman parlayed Jackson into Matt Joyce on 12/10/08, and Matt has since given Tampa Bay 1.8 WAR.  The first trade was a solid move, and the second one has yet to be seen.  But anytime you
net 5 WAR from the likes of Danys Baez and Lance Carter, you've spun gold.

3.  12/3/07: Traded Elijah Dukes to the Washington Nationals for minor leaguer Glenn Gibson.

Gibson is no longer with the Rays, so how is it that this could be considered one of Andrew Friedman's shining moments?  Despite losing the talented Dukes for a minor leaguer, this trade set the tone for the 2008 team.  It was a message that we would no longer wipe the drivel from the mouth of the troubled Dukes' mouth, or any other malcontent for that matter, and that the organization was serious about winning going forward.  This set the tone for the '08 pennant winners and still resonates with the team in 2011.  Dukes did post a solid 2008 season getting on base at .386 clip, while slugging a stout .478.  However, it was Dukes character issues that finally spelled the end of his baseball career.  He's now out of baseball and looking at jail time following yet another arrest in March of 2011.  It's a sad story for sure, but Friedman was on top of his game in making this trade.

2.  11/3/09: Traded Akinori Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jesse Chavez.  Then on 12/11/09: Traded Jesse Chavez to the Atlanta Braves for Rafael Soriano.

This one is a twofer for the obvious reason that Jesse Chavez never pitched an inning for the Rays, primarily based on the fact that he was only on the Rays' roster for a little over a month, with that month being November.  Chavez has struggled with command issues and has yet to become a viable major league relief option.  Aki bounced from Pittsburgh to Oakland before landing back in his native Japan, unable to compete any further against MLB pitching.  Soriano, on the other hand, dominated the AL last season with a 1.73 ERA and a league-high 45 saves, which helped lead the Rays to their second division title in three year.  This maneuver displays Friedman's craftiness in dealing with the Rays' monetary constraints, while still being able to field a competitive squad.

1.  11/28/07: Traded Brendan Harris/Jason Pridie/Delmon Young to the Minnesota Twins for Matt Garza/Jason Bartlett/a minor leaguer.

Harris and Pridie have not panned out as legit MLB players.  And like headcase Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young had worn his welcome in Tampa Bay after various run-ins with manager Joe Maddon concerning his attitude and occasional lack of hustle.  In return, the Rays received Garza and Bartlett, who both became impact players for the '08 AL champs.

Delmon Young finally appears to be able to hit big league pitching after having below average showings in '08 and '09.  In 2010, he batted .293 while slugging .493.

Both Bartlett and Garza were dealt in the 2010-2011 offseason, but each had a remarkable run during their time in Tampa Bay.  Bartlett batted .288 for the Rays, and earned an All-Star appearance in 2009.  Garza averaged over 197 innings pitched with a 3.86 ERA in his three years with the Rays.

In terms of WAR, the Rays dominated this exchange.  Young posted negative WAR in his first two seasons for Minnesota, and has a cumulative 0.3 WAR in his three seasons there, put together.  In this same period, Garza (7.9) and Bartlett (7.4) combined for 15.3 WAR, netting the Rays 15 wins above replacement.

While Young, who is only 25 years old, will likely post numbers with greater consistency going forward, both Bartlett and Garza have been converted into an assortment of young players, who are likely to continue to give the Rays the value-edge in this trade.

Based on past results and the promising future, I have no choice but to make this #1 out of Friedman's trades.

What is WAR, ERA+, OPS+, UZR etc.?

It's likely that many of you reading this have a little bit less knowledge as to the alphabet soup of stats used to track MLB player's performance.  Confusing matters more, I will be using exclusively fangraphs' metrics from this point forward, while still highlighting basic stats like on-base percentage and home runs, just to make these articles simple enough for a fan at any level of sabermetric knowledge.  My reasoning behind aligning myself with the brainiacs at fangraphs.com is simply to streamline my own personal research.  This is not to say that I will not use baseball-reference.com any more; they've done baseball fans, and nerds alike, a tremendous service in their fastidious cataloguing of statistics dating back to the 1870s.  Love love love that site.

Most of you don't even know what that word "sabermetrics" means.  Basically this word defines an ultra-nerdy scientific movement seeking to quantify every facet of baseball through complex mathematical equations.  While I may not be the most versed in the sabermetric ways, I have a good base understanding of the math behind it, and certainly live and die by many of these metrics.  Any of you who read any portion of my season previews can see the alphabet soup I used in evaluating players and teams, so here's a quick look at what each of these stats mean for those of you too lazy to google them.

OPS+:  This is a stat used to measure a player's offensive contributions compared to the league average with a players' home park factored into it as well.  Its base is set at 100 for a league-average player; scores 100> = below average, 100< = above league average.  This metric is extremely close to fangraphs' wRC+, which, as previously stated, I will be using on this blog going forward.

ERA+ (or ERA- in fangraphs):  This is another metric in the vein of OPS+, except it focuses on pitchers' ERA.  It is league/park-adjusted and the 100 mark is used to denote a league-average hurler with anything below 100 being sub-par and above 100 being considered above average.  For ERA-, a lower number is better, but league average is set to 100.

Courtesy of fangraphs.com

UZR:  This metric is used to quantify a player's total defensive contribution and is also league/park-adjusted.  I'm fairly certain that if I even began to explain this stat my head would explode.  At minimum my writings would look like character diarrhea all over your screen.  So here's a chart displaying the breakdown of UZR with 2010 stats used for the percentiles.  Also, here's a link to DRaysBay Editor-in-Chief Steve Slowinski's full explanation of the stat.

UZR/150:  This is the same tell-all defensive metric calculated per 150 defensive games.

Note - both UZR uses can be tricky, because there is quite a bit of inconsistencies on a year-to-year basis due in part to the small sample size of defensive data.  This stat, however, is the best we have currently and I enjoy it thoroughly.

ISO:  Really cool, simple metric.  It's a batter slugging percentage minus their batting average.  It is used to identify how much power a player really has.  (.145 was the 2010 MLB average. Again, courtesy of fangraphs.)

BABIP:  This is a two-way metric, used to look at both pitchers and hitters.  The acronym stands for batting average on balls in play, and means just that.  It measures the number of balls in play that went for hits.  For hitters, this is their batted balls.   For pitchers, it's simply an average of the balls hitters put in play against him that went for hits.  League average hovers around .300, so any hitter that is above it is likely to see a fall in performance.  And, any pitcher that is above .300, has likely been a victim of circumstance, and should see a better ERA down the road.  The stat works both ways for performance prediction; performances above expected levels (give or take .300 for a given season) will likely regress, while those below this number can expect an uptick in their numbers.

WAR:  This is the grandaddy of 'em all!  This is a sabemetricians' attempt to calculate the entire on-field value (offense, defense, baserunning, pitching, etc) for any player and assigning it a value that is equal to the number of wins the player produced above replacement value.  Replacement value is assumed to be a Triple-A call up or their ilk.  There are two camps here; on one side is Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com, and on the other, is Dave Cameron at fangraphs.  Both metrics work the same way, however, their numbers are always different due to separate calculating methods.  In my previous writings I used Sean Smith's WAR, but will now exclusively use Dave Cameron's method.  So if you see WAR from here on out, you'll know I'm speaking of the stat kept over at fangraphs.com.

What in the heck is a Sam Fuld anyways?

After a dreary 0-6 start to the 2011 season for my squad, I figured I wouldn't go with your typical negative piece on the Rays' inability to score, but instead, I would squeeze all the good out of today's 5-1 bustdown by the Orioles Angels White Sox. While I have definitely gotten geeked up over B.J.'s two bombs and will be hitting Kane's for my free pizza courtesy of Hellickson's 10 K's, it was actually a head-first sliding steal of third that was my inspiration for this article. 

Coming into the season, I was certainly in the minority of Rays fans who had actually heard of Sam Fuld.  This is do exclusively to the fact that for most I've my adult life, I have cohabitated with a Chicago Cubs fan.  This isn't to say that I knew the outfielder intimately.  And honestly, the first time that I can recall viewing this guy's page at baseball-reference.com would be right now.

So let me just give the quick and dirty facts behind old Sam, with the assistance of fangraphs and b-r.com, of course.

Sam Fuld is 27 years old.  He is 5'10" 180 pounds, a little guy.  He has Type 1 diabetes, but in spite of the malady is known for his hustle and grit.  He bats lefty and was drafted in the 10th round of the '04 draft by the Cubs.  He cracked the Cubs' roster in in '07 and is playing in his fourth major league season in 2011.  He was acquired from the Cubs, along with a group minor league talents, in exchange for one minor leaguer Matt Garza and Fernando Perez.  It's interesting to me that he was involved in a trade with Perez, because he will likely play similar role this season to the one Perez played on the '08 pennant winner.  While Perez has more speed, Fuld has more patience at the plate, but this isn't a comparison piece.  

Fuld barely got any playing time in Chicago in 2010, spending most of his time in Triple-A, where he posted barely-above-average numbers.  Likewise, his career numbers are underwhelming, with a career wRC+ of 96.  However, in the spirit of optimism, I'd like to point out that the season in which Fuld received his most big league at-bats, he produced his best work to date.  The season was 2009 and his at-bats reached 97.  Fuld sported a .409 on-base percentage, due in part to a .299 batting average.  Aside from hitting, Fuld has shown the ability to play lock-down defense at the corners of the outfield, with a career 53.3 UZR/150 in left and a career 24.1 UZR/150 in right.  While these numbers are impossibly high to maintain (the flaw of UZR/150), this small sample shines some light on the type of defense that can be expected from Fuld this season.

While I know I sound like a lovesick Carl Crawford fan, it really was comforting to see a Rays' left fielder go 2-for-3 with a double and an SB.  Whether Fuld's role develops into more than a fifth OF has yet to be seen, just five games into the season, I, for one, would love to see this little scrappy guy stick around long enough to rub off on our youngsters in 2011.

Rays in 2011

EDIT - The vast majority of this was written before we dropped to 0-6.  Here was me, still pumped after an Opening Day throttling at the hands of the lowly Orioles....

The Rays' Opening Day was a doozy.  Jeremy Guthrie required only 94 pitches to shut the Rays down for eight innings.  Apparently, he's the first Orioles starter to toss eight shutout innings in a season opener since Rick Sutcliffe in 1992.  Either way, I left the game scratching my head, wondering did I really miss the fourth through seventh innings searching for The Trop's vaunted Heater hot dog.  I found my dog. And some ice cream.  And an Italian sausage, with the peppers and the onions, baby!  What I was left with was indigestion and a half-hour wait in St. Petersburg traffic, and all that by 9:30 PM EST.  Guthrie is about as talented as they come, so it's no surprise that he pitched a gem.  But I digest digress.  Per my last post, and only about a day and a half late, are my preseason predictions.  I figured if anyone actually ever reads this, it'll be like minded friends of mine, which is why my first team critique will be my hometown Rays.  After them, I've decided to pay homage to a little known actor, Clint Eastwood.  I figure everyone deserves their big break and why not give that guy some much needed press via my bustling blog.  I'll be breaking down each MLB squad divided into sections containing their individual good, bad and ugly aspects.  So on to the Rays, and then everyone else...

Ahhh My Rays.  Hmm.  I'd love to give them the typical homer write up here, but I mean, when your biggest offseason additions were key contributors to a World Series winner over half a decade removed, not even Edmond Dantes could maintain hope for an October appearance in 2011.  Enough of my pretentious 19^th century French literature references.  Here's the cold, hard facts:

For starters, we've lost our entire bullpen sans Andy Sonnanstine, the always-valuable spot starter and long relief pitcher. We've picked up pieces here and there via trades and signings.  These fresh faces include Kyle Farnsworth, who looks to close games and Joel Peralta in the 8^th inning role.  Also in the fold is wunderkind Jake McGee, who made the club out of spring training, surrounded by plenty of hype.  These three plus a midseason return of J.P. Howell, and the additions of Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were brought in from San Diego as part of the Jason Bartlett deal, will be called on to keep games close in the late innings of 2011.  In spite of de facto GM Andrew Friedman’s best efforts, this ragtag bunch hardly mitigates the bullpen’s losses of Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, and Grant Balfour.

Our rotation has taken a step back by losing Matt "Only No Hitter in Franchise History" Garza and by keeping James "Big Lame" Shields, but Cy Young runner-up David Price is back to anchor the staff.  Price will find it difficult to get much better than his 2010 season, but studying his stats, and not just the more-than ESPN-worthy 19 wins and 2.72 ERA over 208 and 1/3 innings, his true value can be gleaned. Comparing his peripheral stats for his first two full big league seasons, his BB/9 shot down, while his SO/9 and SO/BB shot up, indicate that this kid not only has the natural ability to get Major League hitters out, but the brains to constantly adjust and keep hitters guessing. It was a tough pill to swallow when Felix Hernandez was issued the 2010 Cy Young award, while pitching in obscurity in Seattle, and lacking the pressure cooker that is a pennant race.  However, it is my firm belief that Price will eventually make it very difficult for the BBWAA to snub him for hardware going forward. Aside from Price and Sheilds, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis return with Jeremy Hellickson getting the nod to replace Matt Garza in the rotation. The latter three will deliver better performances this year, assuming their learning curves are as steep as the typical prospects produced by the Rays’ farm system.

This year’s offense is dubious. Relying on two Red Sox legends of yore in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez is a testament to ownership’s concerted effort to squeeze the extra 2% out of the payroll.  But paying the “doddering duo” only $7.25 million in base salary hardly seems like the right move to clinch back-to-back division titles.  With top prospect Desmond Jennings sent down to the minors for additional seasoning, the fourth outfielder will be Matt Joyce, who displayed major power potential last season, slugging .477. His role will likely be far more valuable than that of a fourth outfielder, filling in the void likely to come from a midseason meltdown by either of the doddering duo.  Let’s remember that in 2010 Damon was primarily used as a DH, getting only 35 starts in limited OF duties for Detroit. With Manny clogging up the DH, Damon’s 15-season streak of 140 games played is in serious doubt. All this further highlights Matt Joyce’s role. Expect Ben Zobrist to bounce back after a poor showing in 2010, maybe not quite to the tune of his ’09 All-Star showing but certainly closer to his career 106 OPS+ vs. 2010’s 95. B.J. Upton is back for another season in centerfield, this time without the speedy Carl Crawford to his right, cleaning up his occasional bouts with lackadaisical effort.  This kid has the talent to be a perennial All-Star, but to this point is only relevant because his name is used for fellatio puns during my buddies’ late inning, beer-driven riff sessions. With more defined roles for our young middle infielders Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac, Joe Maddon is likely to use considerably less than 129 different lineups this season. This leads me to believe that we should certainly expect both to excel in these more concrete roles for 2011. 

Any true baseball nerd will tell you that the Rays will be returning 2010’s most valuable position player, according to the wonderful metric WAR, in Evan Longoria.  As Evan goes, so go the Rays. While it’s difficult to project him being that valuable again (worth 7.7 wins above replacement in 2010), he is still young at 25, and really just getting his feet wet in the league.  Not even another MVP-caliber performance from Longo would be enough to validate Dan Johnson’s abysmal bat in the lineup.  With the departure of Carlos Pena to the Cubs, DJ will get his chance at first and I’m extraordinarily bearish on his real capabilities. His hands aren’t as soft as Pena’s; his eyes aren’t as keen for drawing the walk either.  And apparently I wasn’t the only one that noticed.  Rays’ brass made a last ditch effort at getting a legitimate first baseman by signing former Seminole High great Casey Kotchman to a minor league deal. After a strong showing this Spring, .354/.415/.521, it was decided Kotchman would start the season at Triple-A Durham.  I imagine that if and when Johnson falters, Kotchman will be there to take over.  John Jaso was a major contributor last season, his rookie season, with a robust .372 OBP.  I look for him to maintain his eye, defense and base running abilities, ideally keeping Kelly Shoppach’s catching gear in the clubhouse.  Shoppach, last seen throwing the Rays’ playoff hopes into leftfield, is a true miracle. How does the only man in MLB history to log fewer than 160 AB’s but strikeout greater than 70 times maintain a spot on any MLB roster? Like I said true miracle. His actual stats were 71 K’s in 158 at-bats. Miracle.

I see a lot more right than wrong here, however, we play in a tough division that will be a full, 162-game grind.  Without the financial capabilities available to almost every other pertinent AL club, it's difficult to see the lineup picking up a game-changer at any point this season, while it's almost assured that both of the evil empires in our division will ransack the also-rans on or around July 31st. This is why I have the Rays pegged for a second place finish in the AL East, and falling a couple games short for the Wild Card.

Here's the remainder of my predictions, which like any preseason guesswork, should be taken with a grain of salt.

AL 

East

Boston - 95 wins

Rays - 88

NYY - 86

Bal - 80

Tor - 76

Central

Minn - 91

CWS - 90*

Det - 83

Cle - 71

KC - 64

West

LAA - 88

Oak - 84

Tex - 81

Sea - 68 

MVP - Robinson Cano

Cy Young - John Lester

ROY - Jake McGee

NL

East

Atl - 92

Phi - 90*

Fla - 84

Wash - 75

NYM - 70

Central

Mil - 89

STL - 86

Cin - 84

Chi - 81

Hou - 68

Pitt - 62 

West

SF - 95

Col - 89

LAD - 80

Ari - 74

SD - 64

MVP - Troy Tulowitzki

Cy Young - Josh Johnson

ROY - Freddie Freeman

Postseason

ALDS

Bos def. CWS in 5

Minn def. LAA in 4

ALCS

Bos def. Minn in 6

NLDS

Phi def. SF in 5

Atl def. Mil in 4

NLCS

Phi def. Atl in 5

World Series

Phi def. Bos in 6 

***PLEASE NOTE***

These predictions were made prior to Opening Day.  So it's not like I went to tonight's game and bailed.  My baseball consigliere, Dan Fernandez, can vouch for the authenticity of these prognostications. 

AL East Guesses

Final standings for 2011

Boston - 95 

Rays - 88

NYY - 86

Bal - 80

Tor - 76

Boston Red Sox

The Good - New face Adrian Gonzalez combined with full seasons from Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis take that offense to the next level.  Jon Lester is my preseason pick for Cy Young.  Add on a better year from John Lackey, more healthy innings from Daisuke Matsuzaka, and another big time performance from Clay Buchholz and you have a staff that is easily the best in the AL.  However, it’s their bullpen that will take the title this season.  Jonathon Papelbon, in what is likely to be his last season in Boston, and closer heir-apparent Daniel Bard did a capable job last season.  GM Theo Epstein has thrown Bobby Jenks and former Rays’ cog Dan Wheeler into the mix, creating a bullpen that will be able to nail down the late innings for their staff.

The Bad - Fenway favors righties who can abuse the Monster, which is why I know they will receive huge contributions from healthy performances by Pedroia and Youkilis.  And for the same reason, both Crawford and Gonzalez will underachieve compared to the preseason bluster coming from Red Sox Nation.  It's preposterous to think that Gonzalez will leave the weakest division in baseball and enter MLB’s toughest grouping to deliver an MVP in his first season in Beantown. Also, Crawford's base stealing prowess, while undoubtedly legitimate, will not reap the benefits of the catching black hole that is Jared Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek.  One of the two (quite possibly two of the two) of their oft injured outfielders, JD Drew or Jacoby Ellsbury will miss substantial time this year, and I question whether Mike Cameron can have replacement level value at age 38.  Their staff is deep, however, I expect Josh Beckett to continue his decline.

The Ugly – David Ortiz or as I like to call him: Big Sloppy.  Proving once and for all that you don’t have to be an athlete to be a baseball player. Seriously though, expect David Ortiz’ steroid-abused joints to buckle, and cave, under the pressure of one too many bowls of chowder this season.

Tampa Bay Rays

Check above post. Because of the way I opted to list my posts, check the post just after this one.

New York Yankees

The Good – Back for another year in pinstripes is the ageless wonder: Mariano Rivera.  I would love to rip the 41-year old Panamaniac, but his stats don’t lie.  I have to believe that Rivera will be the centerpiece to what should be a fairly solid bullpen featuring Sergio Mitre, Joba the Hut Chamberlain, Boone Logan and newly acquired Pedro Feliciano. A major problem in 2010, which was not fully addressed this offseason, was the porous defense of the Bronx Bombers. But with the addition of Russell Martin behind the dish, it will have a noticeable effect on the staff, and spells the end of Jorge Posada’s days in the field, which must be viewed as a positive.  Curtis Granderson is an amazing centerfielder, likely to net a Gold Glove this season, and will certainly be a major asset to the staff. As will the speedy Brett Gardner, who resembles a poor man’s Carl Crawford in left.  Gardner is more than an on-base machine and terror on the basepaths, he can field a bit.  And in fact, led the Bigs in UZR last year.  Nick Swisher should be able to play competent right field for the Yankees, nothing flashy, but he most likely won’t trip over his own feet, ala Johnny Damon.  The infield is my next priority.

The Bad -The Yankees will finish in a solid third this season. The fact that they gave Derek Jeter a three-year deal worth $51 million solidified their third place finish before they even got a chance to step on the field in 2011.  It’s this commitment to bloated salaries and bloated players that are past their prime, which guaranteed this season’s mediocrity. Sharing the left side of the New York infield with the Yankee captain is another aging former superstar in Alex Rodriguez.  Both hit a lowly .270 last year, with Jeter having a complete power outage.  The tandem also combined to generate -1.6 dWAR, meaning their combined defense cost the team nearly two wins.  The Yankees finished one game behind the Rays in 2010 for those of keeping track at home. Hmmm go figure. The Yankees staff features a legitimate ace in CC Sabathia, and a reasonably skilled second starter in Phillip Hughes.  But after these two, reliability and forecasting can be thrown out the window.  Some combination of A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia will fill in slots 3-5, likely causing Joe Girardi to be on the hot seat by early June.  Rumors are abound that the Yankees will make another run at Felix Hernandez or perhaps separate Chris Carpenter from the Cardinals.  For this reason I will be rooting for the Cardinals to be relevant, at least until the trade deadline of July 31. Continuing with their aforementioned affinity for over-aged and over-paid players, Posada and newly acquired Andruw Jones will likely eat up a significant portion of the DH plate appearances.  This is a grave tactical miscalculation because those plate appearances would have better served the Yankees had they been interspersed amongst the current infield and Posada, instead of bringing in an additional mouth to feed in Jones. This is going to be a serious issue come the dog days of summer.  At least one, and more likely than not, two of their aged superstars will miss significant time on the DL, and given the teams lack of depth at every position besides obese SP, the Yankees 2011 season will be a mirror image of the banged up BoSox of 2010.

The Ugly - The infield is perhaps the most overrated group of fielders in baseball history, with an incomprehensible 12 Gold Gloves between them.  Going around the horn, the infield defense breaks down as follows:  A-Rod with hips stiffer than your grandmother’s, he’ll also need that Rascal she’s been begging for to increase his range at the hot corner; Jeter still doing his run-jump-throw deep in to the hole, unfortunately because of father time, Jeter’s throw to first dies just behind the mound; Cano, and his “silky hands” and his “uncanny ability to turn two” is perhaps the biggest load of hot air to blow out of the Big Apple since Donald Trump’s self-adulating proclamation of his candidacy for the 2012 Presidential election.  Cano’s UZRs have been sub-par his whole career thus far, and likely always will be; finally, we have Mark Teixeira, the guy who has the only real talent defensively of the four. My main concern with Teixeira is the fact that he lumbers around the infield like the Jolly Green Giant running through an oversized cabbage patch.  If I’m a Yankee fan, I’m thinking this guy had a serious strain in his hamstring as recently as last October, how in the hell can I save his legs/career? 

Toronto Blue Jays

The Good - Young staff and power from the corner outfielders.

Their staff features seven potential starters, all aged 25 or younger (as of Opening Day 2011):  Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jesse Litsch and Marc Rzepczynski.  While the Jays will start the season with Morrow on the DL and Rzepczynski in the bullpen, it is without question that this team has more than enough arms to answer the call, should anyone come up lame this season.  Both Romero and Cecil started 28+ games last season and sported solid ERAs.  Returning to Toronto are Drabek, who was the major piece in the Roy Halladay trade, and Litsch, who is looking for a return-to-form after coming back from Tommy John surgery.  

I think everyone knows about Jose Bautista's 54 homers in 2010, but what caught my eye was his ability to work 100 walks to complement the power.  His ability to pound the ball lead to an additional 35 doubles, and if Bautista can maintain his selectivity at the plate, may develop into a yearly candidate for 50 HR.  On the other side of the outfield is 23-year old Travis Snider in left.  In his first 620 Major League at-bats, Snider has managed 25 career home runs, which many believe will blossom this season, as he's given the full time job in left field.

The Bad - Losing Vernon Wells and John Buck. The Infield.

At 5,470 at-bats, Vernon Wells holds the record for career ABs by a Toronto Blue Jay.  However, the decision was made to move Wells and the $23 million owed to him in 2011 to the Los Angeles Angels.  The decision to move the franchise cornerstone, who slugged .515 in 2010, making his third All-Star appearance as a Jay in the process, leaves a gaping hole in their lineup.  Called on to replace him in centerfield is Rajai Davis, who's career 90 OPS+ will cause many to question whether dealing away Wells was truly worth it.  This same front office also thought All-Star catcher John Buck's asking price was too high in free agency, and decided against re-signing him. Instead the backstop, who slugged .489 in 2010, took his talents down to South Beach.  He will be replaced by some combination of rookie J.P. Arencibia and Jose Molina, which is a considerable downgrade.  And further leaving us to scratch or heads and wonder WTF, the Toronto front office did nothing yet again, and instead opted to stand pat with its infielders.  Returning are Adam Lind at first, Aaron Hill at second, Yunel Escobar at short and Edwin Encarnacion at third.  While at first glance the names sound familiar and don't appear to be too shabby, a quick glance at the numbers dispels that myth.  In 2010, the quartet combined to bat .234, and what's worse, the group averaged a .299 OBP.  While Lyle Overbay may not be the answer, his additional 15 points of OPS+ in 2010 over Lind will be missed.  Yunel Escobar was brought over in a shortstop swap with Atlanta during midseason last year, which with each passing day is looking like Toronto may have got the short-end of the stick.  Aaron Hill did his best Mr. Hyde impression in 2010, after going bonkers with the bat in '09, and it will be tough to guess which will come to play in 2011.

The Ugly - Blue Jays' Brass.

I can't ever figure out what the hell is going on with this team, the get so close only to implode at the last second.  The ownership, Rogers Communications, treats the ball club like a wholly-owned subsidiary; frugally holding back funding, and callously making roster moves that are counter-intuitive.  Had former GM J.P. Ricciardi been left to his own devices, instead of getting canned, the pitching and players he drafted and developed would have nicely complimented the likes of Marco Scutaro, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Shaun Marcum and Roy Halladay, making this team a top tier franchise.  Consider this:  In Ricciardi's final season as GM ('08), the Jays had just won 86 games and were amidst a three season run above .500.  Now, Toronto enters year three of The Alex Anthopoulos Experiment.  Look I get what they tried to do here; bring in a guy with a business degree to simulate a Theo Epstein or an Andrew Friedman type.  Only differences is that Rogers Communication, being a major media outlet of Canada, opted to hire a Canadian-born son to lead the Jays.  Like one that was actually born in Canada.  And earned his business degree in Canada.  And had his only previous work experience in Canada.  Not someone with an Ivy League pedigree or business savvy forged on Wall Street, but a Canadian.  A Canuck!  Running an AL East team, is a bit more difficult than say your son's little league hockey team, ehh?  You're out here competing against the likes of Brian Cashman and Epstein over something a bit more substantial than a case of Molson and some new curling gear, ya hoser.  Get it together Toronto.  I have them picked for fourth because of their young pitching, but if their organization can not find away to guide this team in the right direction, I would not be surprised to see them surpassed by our next team....

Baltimore Orioles

The Good - The outfield.  

I like the trio of Luke Scott, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in Baltimore's outfield.  All three of them batted .284 or better last season. The trio also displayed a solid amount of power in 2010.  RF Markakis, whose home run power may have fallen from the 20 HR plateau, did manage to clock 45 doubles last year.  Jones, the center fielder, managed to slug a decent .442.  However, expectations are high, as the 25-year looks to finally break through the 20 HR threshold for the first time in 2011, after two straight seasons stuck at 19.  Scott, who owns a .502 career slugging percentage, will be called on again to deliver big time power, will do so while moving away from the DH spot and into left field.

The Bad - Back end of the rotation.

In spite of GM Andy MacPhail's attempt to capture virtually every second-tier veteran over this last offseason, the Orioles still failed to find any reliable pitchers to follow Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz in the rotation.  What they do have is an assortment of young arms who haven't shown any ability to get major league hitters out.  The trio of Brad Bergeson, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman tossed 324 innings amongst them,  yielding a less-than-stellar 5.03 ERA cumulative.  Now added into the mix is top prospect Zachary Britton, who has thrown exactly zero major league innings.  With each of the four pitchers aged 25 years or younger, there is big upside to the rotation's back end.  However, 2011 will likely be more of a learning process, than an immediate success.  

The Ugly - Offseason acquisitions.

With all the young talent listed in the last two sections, it follows in logic that Baltimore would fill out their remaining starting lineup with a cast of players that will make everyone finally shut up about what a bang-up job Buck Showalter did to finish out 2010.  Amongst their crop of freshly harvested free agents are the elderly and often-aching Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero.  While the 35-year old Lee and 36-year old Guerrero played in 148 and 152 games, respectively last year, it's likely that their advanced age will not allow them to be the day-to-day contributors of years past.  While Lee showed a tremendous downslide in his offensive numbers last season, Guerrero made his ninth All-Star appearance.  It should be pointed out that Guerrero's big numbers in 2010 aren't nearly as big when considering into the equation his hitter-friendly home last year, the Ballpark in Arlington.  This combined with another year of age makes it doubly unlikely that the Orioles can realistically expect anything of substance from the future Hall of Famer.  All of this wouldn't be quite as maddening if they'd have paid Damon-Manny money.  Instead, the club opted to lockdown the duo for $15.25 million for 2011 alone.  

Combining to this confusion was MacPhail's reconstruction of the left side of the Baltimore infield.  In comes strikeout king Mark Reynolds and the always injured J.J. Hardy, both of whom will make over or around $5 million in salary, apiece, for the upcoming season.  Reynolds, coming off a 2010 season in which he failed to break the single season strikeout record for the first time in the past three season, is likely to flail and miss at around 250 third strikes this season.  Hardy, who reduced his number of games played from 115 in '09, down to a slender 101 in 2010, will, for his next act, make himself disappear altogether.  Granted, all McPhail gave up for the new pair of infielders was young pitching, but who needs that stuff anyways.