AL East Guesses

Final standings for 2011

Boston - 95 

Rays - 88

NYY - 86

Bal - 80

Tor - 76

Boston Red Sox

The Good - New face Adrian Gonzalez combined with full seasons from Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis take that offense to the next level.  Jon Lester is my preseason pick for Cy Young.  Add on a better year from John Lackey, more healthy innings from Daisuke Matsuzaka, and another big time performance from Clay Buchholz and you have a staff that is easily the best in the AL.  However, it’s their bullpen that will take the title this season.  Jonathon Papelbon, in what is likely to be his last season in Boston, and closer heir-apparent Daniel Bard did a capable job last season.  GM Theo Epstein has thrown Bobby Jenks and former Rays’ cog Dan Wheeler into the mix, creating a bullpen that will be able to nail down the late innings for their staff.

The Bad - Fenway favors righties who can abuse the Monster, which is why I know they will receive huge contributions from healthy performances by Pedroia and Youkilis.  And for the same reason, both Crawford and Gonzalez will underachieve compared to the preseason bluster coming from Red Sox Nation.  It's preposterous to think that Gonzalez will leave the weakest division in baseball and enter MLB’s toughest grouping to deliver an MVP in his first season in Beantown. Also, Crawford's base stealing prowess, while undoubtedly legitimate, will not reap the benefits of the catching black hole that is Jared Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek.  One of the two (quite possibly two of the two) of their oft injured outfielders, JD Drew or Jacoby Ellsbury will miss substantial time this year, and I question whether Mike Cameron can have replacement level value at age 38.  Their staff is deep, however, I expect Josh Beckett to continue his decline.

The Ugly – David Ortiz or as I like to call him: Big Sloppy.  Proving once and for all that you don’t have to be an athlete to be a baseball player. Seriously though, expect David Ortiz’ steroid-abused joints to buckle, and cave, under the pressure of one too many bowls of chowder this season.

Tampa Bay Rays

Check above post. Because of the way I opted to list my posts, check the post just after this one.

New York Yankees

The Good – Back for another year in pinstripes is the ageless wonder: Mariano Rivera.  I would love to rip the 41-year old Panamaniac, but his stats don’t lie.  I have to believe that Rivera will be the centerpiece to what should be a fairly solid bullpen featuring Sergio Mitre, Joba the Hut Chamberlain, Boone Logan and newly acquired Pedro Feliciano. A major problem in 2010, which was not fully addressed this offseason, was the porous defense of the Bronx Bombers. But with the addition of Russell Martin behind the dish, it will have a noticeable effect on the staff, and spells the end of Jorge Posada’s days in the field, which must be viewed as a positive.  Curtis Granderson is an amazing centerfielder, likely to net a Gold Glove this season, and will certainly be a major asset to the staff. As will the speedy Brett Gardner, who resembles a poor man’s Carl Crawford in left.  Gardner is more than an on-base machine and terror on the basepaths, he can field a bit.  And in fact, led the Bigs in UZR last year.  Nick Swisher should be able to play competent right field for the Yankees, nothing flashy, but he most likely won’t trip over his own feet, ala Johnny Damon.  The infield is my next priority.

The Bad -The Yankees will finish in a solid third this season. The fact that they gave Derek Jeter a three-year deal worth $51 million solidified their third place finish before they even got a chance to step on the field in 2011.  It’s this commitment to bloated salaries and bloated players that are past their prime, which guaranteed this season’s mediocrity. Sharing the left side of the New York infield with the Yankee captain is another aging former superstar in Alex Rodriguez.  Both hit a lowly .270 last year, with Jeter having a complete power outage.  The tandem also combined to generate -1.6 dWAR, meaning their combined defense cost the team nearly two wins.  The Yankees finished one game behind the Rays in 2010 for those of keeping track at home. Hmmm go figure. The Yankees staff features a legitimate ace in CC Sabathia, and a reasonably skilled second starter in Phillip Hughes.  But after these two, reliability and forecasting can be thrown out the window.  Some combination of A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia will fill in slots 3-5, likely causing Joe Girardi to be on the hot seat by early June.  Rumors are abound that the Yankees will make another run at Felix Hernandez or perhaps separate Chris Carpenter from the Cardinals.  For this reason I will be rooting for the Cardinals to be relevant, at least until the trade deadline of July 31. Continuing with their aforementioned affinity for over-aged and over-paid players, Posada and newly acquired Andruw Jones will likely eat up a significant portion of the DH plate appearances.  This is a grave tactical miscalculation because those plate appearances would have better served the Yankees had they been interspersed amongst the current infield and Posada, instead of bringing in an additional mouth to feed in Jones. This is going to be a serious issue come the dog days of summer.  At least one, and more likely than not, two of their aged superstars will miss significant time on the DL, and given the teams lack of depth at every position besides obese SP, the Yankees 2011 season will be a mirror image of the banged up BoSox of 2010.

The Ugly - The infield is perhaps the most overrated group of fielders in baseball history, with an incomprehensible 12 Gold Gloves between them.  Going around the horn, the infield defense breaks down as follows:  A-Rod with hips stiffer than your grandmother’s, he’ll also need that Rascal she’s been begging for to increase his range at the hot corner; Jeter still doing his run-jump-throw deep in to the hole, unfortunately because of father time, Jeter’s throw to first dies just behind the mound; Cano, and his “silky hands” and his “uncanny ability to turn two” is perhaps the biggest load of hot air to blow out of the Big Apple since Donald Trump’s self-adulating proclamation of his candidacy for the 2012 Presidential election.  Cano’s UZRs have been sub-par his whole career thus far, and likely always will be; finally, we have Mark Teixeira, the guy who has the only real talent defensively of the four. My main concern with Teixeira is the fact that he lumbers around the infield like the Jolly Green Giant running through an oversized cabbage patch.  If I’m a Yankee fan, I’m thinking this guy had a serious strain in his hamstring as recently as last October, how in the hell can I save his legs/career? 

Toronto Blue Jays

The Good - Young staff and power from the corner outfielders.

Their staff features seven potential starters, all aged 25 or younger (as of Opening Day 2011):  Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jesse Litsch and Marc Rzepczynski.  While the Jays will start the season with Morrow on the DL and Rzepczynski in the bullpen, it is without question that this team has more than enough arms to answer the call, should anyone come up lame this season.  Both Romero and Cecil started 28+ games last season and sported solid ERAs.  Returning to Toronto are Drabek, who was the major piece in the Roy Halladay trade, and Litsch, who is looking for a return-to-form after coming back from Tommy John surgery.  

I think everyone knows about Jose Bautista's 54 homers in 2010, but what caught my eye was his ability to work 100 walks to complement the power.  His ability to pound the ball lead to an additional 35 doubles, and if Bautista can maintain his selectivity at the plate, may develop into a yearly candidate for 50 HR.  On the other side of the outfield is 23-year old Travis Snider in left.  In his first 620 Major League at-bats, Snider has managed 25 career home runs, which many believe will blossom this season, as he's given the full time job in left field.

The Bad - Losing Vernon Wells and John Buck. The Infield.

At 5,470 at-bats, Vernon Wells holds the record for career ABs by a Toronto Blue Jay.  However, the decision was made to move Wells and the $23 million owed to him in 2011 to the Los Angeles Angels.  The decision to move the franchise cornerstone, who slugged .515 in 2010, making his third All-Star appearance as a Jay in the process, leaves a gaping hole in their lineup.  Called on to replace him in centerfield is Rajai Davis, who's career 90 OPS+ will cause many to question whether dealing away Wells was truly worth it.  This same front office also thought All-Star catcher John Buck's asking price was too high in free agency, and decided against re-signing him. Instead the backstop, who slugged .489 in 2010, took his talents down to South Beach.  He will be replaced by some combination of rookie J.P. Arencibia and Jose Molina, which is a considerable downgrade.  And further leaving us to scratch or heads and wonder WTF, the Toronto front office did nothing yet again, and instead opted to stand pat with its infielders.  Returning are Adam Lind at first, Aaron Hill at second, Yunel Escobar at short and Edwin Encarnacion at third.  While at first glance the names sound familiar and don't appear to be too shabby, a quick glance at the numbers dispels that myth.  In 2010, the quartet combined to bat .234, and what's worse, the group averaged a .299 OBP.  While Lyle Overbay may not be the answer, his additional 15 points of OPS+ in 2010 over Lind will be missed.  Yunel Escobar was brought over in a shortstop swap with Atlanta during midseason last year, which with each passing day is looking like Toronto may have got the short-end of the stick.  Aaron Hill did his best Mr. Hyde impression in 2010, after going bonkers with the bat in '09, and it will be tough to guess which will come to play in 2011.

The Ugly - Blue Jays' Brass.

I can't ever figure out what the hell is going on with this team, the get so close only to implode at the last second.  The ownership, Rogers Communications, treats the ball club like a wholly-owned subsidiary; frugally holding back funding, and callously making roster moves that are counter-intuitive.  Had former GM J.P. Ricciardi been left to his own devices, instead of getting canned, the pitching and players he drafted and developed would have nicely complimented the likes of Marco Scutaro, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Shaun Marcum and Roy Halladay, making this team a top tier franchise.  Consider this:  In Ricciardi's final season as GM ('08), the Jays had just won 86 games and were amidst a three season run above .500.  Now, Toronto enters year three of The Alex Anthopoulos Experiment.  Look I get what they tried to do here; bring in a guy with a business degree to simulate a Theo Epstein or an Andrew Friedman type.  Only differences is that Rogers Communication, being a major media outlet of Canada, opted to hire a Canadian-born son to lead the Jays.  Like one that was actually born in Canada.  And earned his business degree in Canada.  And had his only previous work experience in Canada.  Not someone with an Ivy League pedigree or business savvy forged on Wall Street, but a Canadian.  A Canuck!  Running an AL East team, is a bit more difficult than say your son's little league hockey team, ehh?  You're out here competing against the likes of Brian Cashman and Epstein over something a bit more substantial than a case of Molson and some new curling gear, ya hoser.  Get it together Toronto.  I have them picked for fourth because of their young pitching, but if their organization can not find away to guide this team in the right direction, I would not be surprised to see them surpassed by our next team....

Baltimore Orioles

The Good - The outfield.  

I like the trio of Luke Scott, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in Baltimore's outfield.  All three of them batted .284 or better last season. The trio also displayed a solid amount of power in 2010.  RF Markakis, whose home run power may have fallen from the 20 HR plateau, did manage to clock 45 doubles last year.  Jones, the center fielder, managed to slug a decent .442.  However, expectations are high, as the 25-year looks to finally break through the 20 HR threshold for the first time in 2011, after two straight seasons stuck at 19.  Scott, who owns a .502 career slugging percentage, will be called on again to deliver big time power, will do so while moving away from the DH spot and into left field.

The Bad - Back end of the rotation.

In spite of GM Andy MacPhail's attempt to capture virtually every second-tier veteran over this last offseason, the Orioles still failed to find any reliable pitchers to follow Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz in the rotation.  What they do have is an assortment of young arms who haven't shown any ability to get major league hitters out.  The trio of Brad Bergeson, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman tossed 324 innings amongst them,  yielding a less-than-stellar 5.03 ERA cumulative.  Now added into the mix is top prospect Zachary Britton, who has thrown exactly zero major league innings.  With each of the four pitchers aged 25 years or younger, there is big upside to the rotation's back end.  However, 2011 will likely be more of a learning process, than an immediate success.  

The Ugly - Offseason acquisitions.

With all the young talent listed in the last two sections, it follows in logic that Baltimore would fill out their remaining starting lineup with a cast of players that will make everyone finally shut up about what a bang-up job Buck Showalter did to finish out 2010.  Amongst their crop of freshly harvested free agents are the elderly and often-aching Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero.  While the 35-year old Lee and 36-year old Guerrero played in 148 and 152 games, respectively last year, it's likely that their advanced age will not allow them to be the day-to-day contributors of years past.  While Lee showed a tremendous downslide in his offensive numbers last season, Guerrero made his ninth All-Star appearance.  It should be pointed out that Guerrero's big numbers in 2010 aren't nearly as big when considering into the equation his hitter-friendly home last year, the Ballpark in Arlington.  This combined with another year of age makes it doubly unlikely that the Orioles can realistically expect anything of substance from the future Hall of Famer.  All of this wouldn't be quite as maddening if they'd have paid Damon-Manny money.  Instead, the club opted to lockdown the duo for $15.25 million for 2011 alone.  

Combining to this confusion was MacPhail's reconstruction of the left side of the Baltimore infield.  In comes strikeout king Mark Reynolds and the always injured J.J. Hardy, both of whom will make over or around $5 million in salary, apiece, for the upcoming season.  Reynolds, coming off a 2010 season in which he failed to break the single season strikeout record for the first time in the past three season, is likely to flail and miss at around 250 third strikes this season.  Hardy, who reduced his number of games played from 115 in '09, down to a slender 101 in 2010, will, for his next act, make himself disappear altogether.  Granted, all McPhail gave up for the new pair of infielders was young pitching, but who needs that stuff anyways.