The Breakdown: Jeff Niemann vs. Twins, 4/28/11

Jeff Niemann continued his up-and-down 2011 Thursday, taking a no-hitter into the seventh against the Twins.  On the heels of his previous start against the White Sox, one in which Niemann struggled through four and 2/3 innings, yielding five earned with six hits, two walks and two hit-batters, I was relieved that Jeff was able to nail down the sweep in Minnesota.

However, this start did little to assuage my fears of a potential "dead arm" situation that seems to be looming over the Rays' heads. After tossing only 84 pitches, Maddon opted to go with the bullpen as Niemann's velocity was beginning to deteriorate over the course of his seven innings. The velocity and tailing action was down on Jeff's two-seamer compared to his season averages, as was the slide on his slider, thus giving Niemann a lowly two strikeouts. His command wasn't on point either; throwing 52 strikes against 32 balls and just 11 first pitch strikes in the 23 batters he faced.

So how exactly did he blank the Twinkies for so long if his best stuff and command were so fleeting?

He used a little more than that 6'9", 260 lb hulking physique. He used that little thing between his ears. He opted to increase the number of four-seamers he was throwing and finally began to get the ball down.

Here's Jeff's previous start vs. Chicago:

Stolen from TexasLeaguers.com

Here's Thursday vs Minnesota:

Stolen from TexasLeaguers.com

We see almost a complete flip-flop in where Jeff is pitching in the two starts. In spite of the garden variety of his problems, I am encouraged to see that Jeff was able to beat his fastball down. And, interestingly enough, at least to me, is what Jeff did even when he missed the zone altogether. You can see through the charts that against Chicago, the ball was sailing up at the top of and above the zone. On Thursday, Jeff was able to be "wildly effective", throwing nearly as many balls as strikes in the lower portion of the zone and outside of it.

In a stroke of analytical genius, I took that first chart into Preview (Mac users know!) and rotated it to the right twice and put it next to yesterday's chart. Look:

Pitching > Throwing.

And in one final (ab)use of the lovely graphs provided by the kind people at Texas Leaguers, is this highly cluttered one featuring every pitch location for Jeff Niemann since his downfall began on August 25 of last season.

Horse = beaten to death.