Final standings for 2011
Minn - 91
CWS - 90*
Det - 83
Cle - 71
KC - 64
Minnesota Twins
The Good - Consistency.
With six playoff appearances in nine years, this team has set the model for other small-market MLB clubs on how to stay competitive year after year after year. Rarely making a big splash in the free agency markets, this team has instead opted to gather high-character guys and role players. They play solid defense behind good pitching, run the bases well and do the little things right, just playing "the right way". This season is no different. Returning from last season's 94-win club is the entire starting rotation along with seven of nine starters from the lineup. Also returning, though two seasons removed, is All-Star closer Joe Nathan, who missed all of 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Of the two holes created during the '10-'11 offseason, the Twins filled the departure of SS J.J. Hardy's void, with in-house guy Alexi Casilla. However, in replacing 2B Orlando Hudson's spot, the team traveled quite a-ways from Minnesota to fill the vacancy. In comes Japanese export Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Like Hudson, Nishioka has a strong defensive background, with two Gold Gloves in the NPL. This teams is virtually the same squad that took the division crown in 2010, which is why I have set to three-peat as AL Central champs.
The Bad - No true ace in the rotation.
While I truly enjoy manager Ron Gardenhire's club, they have one glaring hole: no legitimate, go-to #1 starter. The club returns their version of a number one in Carl Pavano, who inked a two-year, $16.5 million deal in the offseason. While Pavano is a solid pitcher, posting a 3.75 ERA in 221 innings in 2010, he's not up to par with what other playoff teams are bringing to the table. He's no CC. Nor a David Price. He's not even close to say a Justin Verlander. Since the departure of Johan Santana following the 2007 season, their lack of an ace has been a damper on their pennant and title ambitions. The pretender to Santana's throne was Francisco Liriano, who is NOT "who we thought he was". The 27-year old lefty has battled injuries and inconsistencies and has yet to validate himself as a legitimate number one. Look no further than his 2010 ALDS start against the Yankees' big lefty for proof; final score, Yankees 6, Twins 4. Perhaps 28-year old Brian Duensing can answer the call. After a 2010 season that saw him split duties between the rotation and the bullpen, Duensing will be used as a starter to from the get-go in 2011. The transition should be interesting. He came out of the pen for 40 appearances last season, boasting a 1.80 ERA; however, after a late season transition to starter, his ERA went up by a run and a quarter in those 13 games. Until they develop or sign a big time starter, I don't think this club has enough to make any runs deep in to October. This brings me to my next point.
The Ugly - 3-19.
This is the record Minnesota hast posted in their last six playoff series. Here's how they amassed such a god-awful record.
- 2002 ALCS - Angels 4, Twins 1
- 2003 ALDS - Yankees 3, Twins 1
- 2004 ALDS - Yankees 3, Twins 1
- 2006 ALDS - Athletics 3, Twins 0
- 2009 ALDS - Yankees 3, Twins 0
- 2010 ALDS - Yankees 3, Twins 0
It hurts my feelings to have to write the Yankees in on any win column that many times. I think they do everything correctly in the Twins' organization EXCEPT win in October. They've gone a less than stellar 6-21 this century in the playoffs. I championed their small market stratagem in this article, but also pointed out their lack of a stud starter. And until one of the two change, they just can't hang against the big spenders in the AL.
Chicago White Sox
The Good - Serious power.
With the signing of Adam Dunn, the Sox have added to an already power-packed lineup that inlcudes boppers Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez and Alex Rios. Dunn, or as I prefer to call him Big Donkey, has been the gold standard of consistency when it comes to pounding home runs. His last two seasons he's hit exactly 38 bombs. Prior to that he hit precisely 40 in four straight years. And Big Donky is currently riding a nine-season streak of at least 25 homers. Matching Dunn shot-for-shot, will be Konerko. Konerko hit 39 home runs in 2010, and has six 30+ HR seasons to his name. Behind these two is another banger in Carlos Quentin. Typically unable to stay healthy for a full season, Carlos has stringed together three consecutive seasons of at least 20 jacks and fewer than 500 ABs. Additional power will be provided from Rios and Ramirez. While not in the class of the other three hitters, both Rios and Ramirez will provide 20+ HR pop from premiere defensive positions (Rios - CF, Ramirez - SS).
The Bad - Pitching.
Typically the only redeeming area of Chicago's shoddily-run Ozzie Guillen teams has been the pitching. This season will be different. Let's go ahead and knock out the positives here and see what we're left with. John Danks is turning into a reliable second-tier sort of starter. He's notched three straight seasons with over 195 innings thrown and a sub-4.00 ERA. Unfortunately for the Sox, these numbers are more like a two starter than the ace-type of production their expecting from the soon-to-be 26-year old lefty. Matt Thornton made the All-Star team in 2010 en route to a 2.67 ERA in 61 appearances. Swiping Jesse Crain from the Twins is a definite plus. Crain had a 3.04 ERA in 71 appearances for the rival Twins in 2010, and while have an impact on the Sox bullpen.
This is where the positives end. Their offseason additions of Will Ohman and Phil Humber will result in a complete meltdown for the pen, as the league hit around .260 off of each them. Calling on a rookie in Chris Sale to close, will be more than the youngster can handle. Moving from the bullpen back to the starters, the White Sox pitchers can be classified into two categories: the "burned out arms" and the "soon to be burned out arms". Two-starter Mark Buehrle and fifth-starter Jake Peavy form the former group, while 28-year old Gavin Floyd and 27-year old Edwin Jackson make up the latter. Both Buehrle and Peavy are facing certain decline phases in their careers. Buehrle's due to his age (32), and Peavy due to his mounting injury resume. The other two, Floyd and Jackson, are likely to be the latest in a long line of pitchers ruined by Guillen. This will provide the ideal segue to the next portion of this article.
The Ugly - Ozzie Guillen is the new Dusty Baker.
White Sox' leadership has truly confounded me season after season. From GM Kenny Williams' insane wheelings and dealings, down to the counter-intuitive day-to-day decisions of the always-obnoxious Guillen, the White Sox' brain trust constantly insists upon being its own worst enemy.
But going back to the last section, I kind of left you hanging. "Who are these pitchers that have been mistreated by the loud mouthed Venezuelan?," you ask. Well, Let's take a look. Jon Garland is exhibit A. Garland first encountered Guillen in 2003, and after initial success, Guillen, used the then 23-year old recklessly, amassing four consecutive 200 inning season ending in 2007. This is when Kenny Williams' hit the eject button on Garland, dealing him to the Angels. In the three seasons since his time on the South Side, Garland has struggled to catch on with any ball club with a long term deal. This is because at the age of 30, Garland has already lost substantial velocity and movement on his fastball. His peripherals have spiked negatively and even Dusty Baker feels bad for the hurler. Next up is Bobby Jenks. A 24-year old Jenks premiered for Guillen's Sox in their Series winning season of '05. Right out of the gate, and based on zero sound reasoning, Guillen used his closer nearly 70 times a year in back to back seasons, getting positive results from the youngster. However, starting in '08, Jenks' walks began to creep up and his strikeouts down. By the end of 2010, with Jenks' velocity down and movement non-existant, the Sox let the former All-Star walk, not signing him in free agency. Along with the two youths, veterans Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras were used and abused by the shameless Guillen. Both came to Guillen at advanced ages, however, after multiple seasons over 200 innings pitched by both pitchers, a pattern similar to the two previously mentioned youths emerged. Because after the two pitchers saw drastic declines in their peripheral stats, and claims that their stuff was no longer cutting it, the White Sox front office immediately shipped them out; Vazquez to Atlanta and Contreras to Colorado. Immediately after leaving the brutal Guillen, both veterans saw an immediate resurgence in their stuff, and picked up where they had left off prior to the disaster that was Chicago.
Why does this matter?
Because the pattern is again rearing its ugly head. This time on the stat sheets of Buehrle, Floyd and Danks. Buehrle is too old to really be a concern, but the other two are still fairly young. Floyd and Danks have now been under Ozzie's tutelage for three full seasons. Both, like the other pitchers previously mentioned, posted their best stats in their first seasons with the Sox, and have since seen their stats enter a decline. This is almost an impossibility because they're so young, but the numbers do not lie. Danks has seen his BB/9 go up and his SO/9 go down, while Floyd has seen his WHIP and H/9 jump up, and his other peripheral stats remain stagnant. While the two old guys, Contreras and Vazquez, were used by different clubs prior to Chicago, though not nearly as rigorously, the other four pitchers were broken in almost exclusively by Guillen.
Going forward, I am willing to bet that one of the Sox' two young hurlers will follow a path similar to Garland and Jenks, and get shipped off upon the loss of their talents, but with youth currently on their side they should be reliable enough to get the Sox into the playoffs in 2011.
Detroit Tigers
The Good - Cabrera and Verlander.
After a rocky offseason the Tigers have managed to get their killer 1B Miguel Cabrera past the distractions surrounding his DUI and into the regular season. This guy is crucial, and hopefully for the Tigers' sake, won't feel too many ill effects from his legal issues. Here's why: In 2010, he hit 38 homers, knocked in a league-leading 126 RBI, while posting a .328/.420/.622 triple slash. He paced the AL in on-base and OPS+ (179), but to me the scariest part about this kid is that he posted a career high 89 walks and a career low 95 strikeouts. This says to me, that Cabrera, who turns 28 later this month, is starting to develop more patience at the dish. Already a viable triple crown threat, an even more stingy Cabrera has to terrify AL pitchers. And speaking of AL pitchers, next up is Tigers' stud Justin Verlander. After an '09 campaign that saw Verlander lead the league in wins, innings and SO/9, he came into last season with tremendous expectations. And he did not disappoint. Verlander earned 18 wins by virtue of a 3.37 ERA in 224.1 innings pitched. The 28-year old righty also put up 219 Ks and will enter this season with yet another series of expectations. Like before, I expect him to continue his vendetta against AL bats in 2011, again being a Cy Young contender.
The Bad - Back of the rotation.
After Verlander, the Tigers project to have a rotation featuring Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny and Phil Coke. I've already given Verlander his due. And I don't mind Scherzer in the two slot, especially after he posted a 120 ERA+ in 195.2 innings last season. What my beef is with, are the three guys expected to fill out the back of that rotation. These three guys are the reason I have Detroit going third in the 2011 AL Central and missing the playoffs. This much maligned trio consists of Rick Porcello, Brad Penny and Phil Coke. After a promising '09 rookie campaign, Porcello underwhelmed last season. In 27 starts last season Porcello posted an 85 OPS+, thanks in part to a bloated 1.389 WHIP. Penny pitched in just nine games last season due to injuries, but in his time in the AL, he managed a disastrous 5.61 ERA in 24 starts for Boston in '09. Coke has but one start in the bigs, but managed a solid 3.76 ERA in 76 appearances for the Tigers in 2010. While his ERA was solid, it was perhaps a bit lucky as he posted a 1.438 WHIP. With this high of a WHIP, Coke is more smoke and mirrors than true talent and will likely find his ERA swollen in 2011 as he takes on the additional load of innings by starting games.
The Ugly - Armando Galarraga's lost Perfecto.
This is the beauty of writing your own blog. You can write whatever you want without any care to the relevancy of the topic. I've basically used this "The Ugly" section as my personal sounding board to rip various teams and their deficiencies. This one is easily the most off topic and has nothing to do with the 2011 Detroit Tigers. With Galarraga not even playing in the Motor City anymore (now in Arizona), why in the world am I even bringing this topic up? While everybody has forgiven umpire Jim Joyce's blown call, I question why it even got that far in the first place. Last time I checked a calendar, it said 2011, and my concern here is why the MLB has yet to get with it. The "it" being instant replay. While the MLB has dabbled in an extremely limited form of instant replay (HR calls exclusively), it is time to expand it. The MLB has been passed up in popularity by the NFL; a league that's been able to remove a substantial portion of their human error element with its extensive use of instant replay. It's the 21st century, and while I recognize and respect and love, deeply, the historical aspect of baseball, it's with this fervent passion that I have become completely fed up with watching my daily dose of two or three blown calls per game. Who doesn't want instant replay in baseball? The players? Ask Armando Galarraga. The Umpires? Ask Jim Joyce. The fans? There's one right here. The argument against instant replay in baseball is that it will take too long. This has to be the worst argument against anything, ever. When real baseball fans show up to the stadium or plop down on the couch, they aren't saying to themselves "Boy, I sure hope my usual 200 minute ball game isn't drawn out an extra three minutes to ensure they get this call right." And look at football. Their fans aren't up in arms when a coach throws the little red flag, or booing when there's a booth review. Why would they? It's a guarantee that the final product they're receiving is just that much closer to 100% accurate. So how did it come to be that we were robbed of baseball's 19th perfect game? Ask him....
Cleveland Indians
The Good - Shin-Soo Choo.
This guy is the real deal folks. After hitting .300 and accumulating a solid 136 OPS+ in '09, the 28-year old South Korean duplicated his .300 batting average, while putting up a whopping 148 OPS+ in 2010. This guy is baseball's best kept secret; part Oriental mystique, part playing in a dump like Cleveland. 2010 marked Choo's second straight season placing among the league's most valuable players, and according to WAR, Choo was actually the second most valuable position player last season. While his defensive range in right field is just solid, his arm is on par with all the praises this guy has been showered with. He gunned down 14 base runners last season to lead all major league outfielders. He has discipline at the dish (83 BB) and speed on the basepaths (22 SB). There is really nothing he can't do going forward. Except play in playoff game. Yikes.
The Bad - Infield's offense.
While a team that delivered a 93-game stinkbomb in 2010 has infinite ways for me to rip 'em, I decided on the infield's lack of bats, based on the fact that this is one that GM Mark Shapiro consciously put together in the '10-'11 offseason. While 1B Matt LaPorta and SS Asdrubal Cabrera return from last season's slop show, Orlando Cabrera has been brought in to play 2B (??) and in a maneuver even more questionable, Shapiro has brought in Jack Hannahan to play at the hot corner. The 26-year old LaPorta has yet to live up to the hype that has followed him during his young career. Brought over by Cleveland from Milwaukee as part of the CC Sabathia deal way back, Laporta has logged just MLB 450 ABs, with poor results to boot. Last season, LaPorta got to the dish just 425 times thanks to a stretch on the DL and an 88 OPS+. Asdrubal Cabrera is another youngster that has yet to make his mark in the majors. Going into this, his fifth, season Cabrera owns a career 101 OPS+, but could only scrap together a meager 90 last season. While I don't even want to get into how or why they've decided to place the two-time Gold Glove winning shortstop, Orlando Cabrera, at the keystone position, what I do want to do is make fun of said ex-SS's feeble attempt to be a major league hitter. Cabrera is just plain old at 36 years of age. When they talk about old hitters, they will often say "Player X still has some hits in that old bat of his." My contention is that Cabrera didn't have any to begin with. Going into his 15th year, we know what to expect from Orlando Cabrera: a weak hitter that is now in decline. Cabrera has an 85 career OPS+, but last season was able to squeeze just a 78 OPS+ out of "his old bat". Rounding out this weak-hitting infield is the worst yet, Jack Hannahan. Hannahan owns a career OPS+ of...wait for it...79! His hitting is so dubious that an injury plagued Boston Red Sox team refused to bring him up in 2010, instead leaving him to get some extra looks at Triple-A. On two separate Triple-A squads in the 2010 season (started season with Seattle's Tacoma before being traded), Hannahan mustered a laughable .233 average to go along with a wimpy .374 slugging. This is at Triple-A! I mean, I'm sure the Indians are likely to find a platoon-mate for the lefty, but it's just incredible that they would even break camp with him penciled in at third and be able to keep a straight face. I'm not saying these guys are bad. I'm saying these guys are next-level bad. These guy's have to hide their face when Seattle rolls into town. Or at least Hannahan does, he wasn't even good enough to crack the 2010 Mariners.
The Ugly - Like the Cubs in the NL, this team has really set the standard when it comes to futility. In the last decade, both the White Sox and Red Sox, were able to exercise their demons and bring home a Worlds Series title. Left now, is Cleveland, with the longest title drought in the AL. This past October the woeful Cleveland Indians celebrated an unfortunate anniversary. It was the 62nd anniversary of the Tribes' last World Series winner. Based on this group, lazily thrown together by their GM Shapiro, it is with great certainty that I predict the streak to reach 63. Two more things should be said here. One: the last team to win the title for Cleveland was the 1948 squad. And Two: The ace of that staff was recently shipped off to toe that great rubber in the sky. RIP Bob Feller. I really appreciate the patch (below) Cleveland will have on their jerseys for 2010. Love the wind-up.
Kansas City Royals
The Good - Billy Butler.
I really dislike pretending to care about these crap organizations. But knowing about teams like Kansas City is important when trying to be a well-rounded baseball guru. This team really has just two players that are worth any kind of national recognition; baseball's best reliever in Joakim Soria and Billy Butler. As you can see by the title, I've gone with Butler. I'm intrigued by Butler because he's young and posted a .388 on-base percentage last season. I always like young guys who show an ability to get on base. Butler, however, is not just a one-trick pony, he also has substantial power to go with his blossoming plate discipline. He smashed 51 doubles and 21 bombs in 2009, and took a step back last season, but still posted 45 doubles to go with 15 homers. At 25, it's unlikely that Butler has fully tapped into every bit of his 6'1" 240 lb frame's power potential, but in any given game, teams must respect what he's already put on paper. In 2011, look for this kid's doubles power to jump up to home run power.
The Bad - Rotation.
Here they are:
Luke Hochevar
Jeff Francis
Kyle Davies
Bruce Chen
No fifth starter according to royals.com. Not a good sign.
Here's what they did in 2010:
Hochevar - 103 IP, 4.81 ERA (87 ERA+), 1.427 WHIP, 2.05 SO/BB
Francis - 104.1 IP, 5.00 ERA (93 ERA+), 1.361 WHIP, 2.91 SO/BB for Colorado
Davies - 183.2 IP, 5.34 ERA (78 ERA+), 1.557 WHIP, 1.58 SO/BB
Chen - 140.1 IP, 4.17 ERA (101 ERA+), 1.375 WHIP, 1.72 SO/BB
Here's what to expect in 2011:
The Ugly - I know I'm really skimping here, but what do you want from me. This organization hasn't made the playoffs since 1985. To give that some perspective, I was birthed in 1986 and have thinning hair to go with my receding hairline. And since I've already crossed into poo joke territory...
Here's what happens when you google that 1985 squad's lone Hall of Famer.
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