Mil - 89
STL - 86
Cin - 84
Chi - 81
Hou - 68
Pitt - 62Milwaukee Brewers
The Good - Pitching upgrades. Offense.
With the additions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the Brew Crew features the most formidable rotation of any in the Central. Greinke is a former Cy Young recipient and comes with high hopes of a return to form after a dreary 2010 campaign. Marcum is a lesser known name, but is the piece that,to me, is more intriguing. After recuperating from Tommy John surgery in 2009, Marcum came back in 2010 displaying marked improvements in both BB/9 and SO/9. While his 3.64 ERA certainly wasn't horrendous, I suspect that a combination of him reducing his BABIP back down to previous levels and not having to face the more rigorous lineups of the AL East will give him a considerable leg up on 2011. What's not to like about the Brewers offense? It's constructed like an old-timey offense featuring major contributions from both sets of corner outfielders and corner infielders. However, what makes this an elite lineup is a masher at second in Rickie Weeks. Flat. Out. RAKES. If he wore Yankee pinstripes, he'd get just as much hype as Cano, if not more so. After posting his second consecutive season with an OPS+ at 125, the expectations will be there. It's also worthy of note that this is Prince Fielder's walk season.
The Bad - Carlos Gomez.
He's a bum. After posting a negative WAR last year, Gomez has whopping 3.3 WAR in just over 1400 career plate appearances. His defense is inconsistent at best. His range is remarkable, but it's what he does with the ball once he touches it. Errors amok. At many times, you'll hear him touted as "the fastest man in the majors". However, his 78 SB in 102 attemps, leaves a bit to be desired. With a career OPS+ of 72, it's likely fellow CS expert Nyjer Morgan will eventually find his way into some playing time at center.
The Ugly - Defense.
If Carlos Gomez' defense is reprehensible (see above), then the Brewer defense on the whole is incomprehensible. I could sit back and lambast this bunch for the next 20-30 minutes with zingers but I figured I'd just drop this bit of knowledge on you. The number to the right of each player's name is their UZR's from 2010 at their primary position (catchers need not apply).
1B - Prince Fielder - -7.4
2B - Rickie Weeks - 1.8
3B - Casey McGehee - -4.2
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt - -9.5
LF - Ryan Braun - -9.3
CF - Carlos Gomez - 3.5
RF - Corey Hart - -6.4
While there can be fluctuation in a stat like UZR from year-to-year, I would like to immediately point out that every player on this list holds a negative career UZR, with the exception of Mr. Gomez, who has still managed to lead all center fielders in that old error statistic as recently as 2008.
St. Louis Cardinals
This one will have to be a little different.
The Ugly - Albert Pujols' contract.
This, coupled with the loss of 20-game winner Adam Wainwright, is what will ultimately cost the redbirds any chance at contention in 2011. The need to work out a deal for The Machine can not be understated. According to the invaluable people at baseball-reference.com's four metric for the Hall of Fame, Mr. Pujols is already a bona fide member if he never laces his cleats up again. The fact that they sent their best player out there without a contract for next season, knowing the disaster that looms following the close of this season, gives me the feeling, that they likely won't be able to bring him back. Whether or not the asking price is too high, imagine the blow to their fan base and to their locker room morale if their cherished slugger finishes out his career at the Friendly Confines, or any other suitor that WILL come knocking when Pujols files for free agency. It might be a $300 million bullet to bite, but to lose him would be even greater.
The Good - Pujols.
This is just turning into a Pujols' piece, but whatever, nothing on this team is nearly as good, nor exciting as Prince Albert. He's got three MVPs (four second place finishes), nine All-Star selections, six Silver Sluggers (at 3 different positions), and a couple of Gold Gloves up on the mantle as well. This guy is a walking piece of genuine MLB history. There is no reason to believe this guy won't retire as the best right handed hitter of all-time, after averaging .331-41-123 over his first decade in the game. While his defense is slowing down a tad, even his glove has been stout over that same period, which puts Pujols in a class all by himself. I could rave over about this guy forever, and likely will, however I do need to get things moving for the sake of this entry.
The Bad - The lineup.
So they got Pujols. And then Matt Holiday. Edit - Holiday sidelined at least a month after emergency appendectomy. Up next, is their unproven but certainly noteworthy 24-year old CF Colby Rasmus, who in spite of his flare for the strikeout will not face my wrath in this writeup. After these three, NL pitchers will toy with this lineup. Whoever decided that bringing in Ryan Theriot to replace Brendan Ryan at short, must know something that the public does not. While Ryan is an outstanding fielder, he's also a notoriously poor hitter, which is why he was jettisoned to Seattle. His replacement should pickup right where Ryan left off though, just without the glove. Yadier Molina proved to people that his 2009 season was indeed a fluke posting an OPS+ of 84, pretty close to his career of 82. Lance Berkman was brought in to be the man he was down in Houston. However, I fear that it's more likely to see somewhere in the range of what he did in New York. This is based on his body type, career trajectory, and being under the assumption that he will now be attempting the 162-game grind in right field. Rounding out this lineup are the less notable, but equally futile second baseman Skip Schumaker along with third baseman David Freese. While Freese did edge Schumaker in OPS+ (109 vs. 83), I'd be in remiss for not pointing out his other substantial statistical edge over Schumaker in 2010; in the category of "Ankle Surgeries", which he paced 2 to Schumaker's lousy zero. Freese didn't play after June 27 last season, and it's likely he will be missing a step and trying to get comfortable for the first portion of this season.
Cincinnati Reds
The Good - Good, young starting pitching. Reigning MVP.
Edinson Volquez, Aroldis Chapman, Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Sam LeCure. This is the type of young pitching that is a wet dream to every single GM out there. With the old man of this group being Volquez at 27, the sky is the limit for these guys. Joey Votto earned the NL MVP, and rightfully so. Votto's .324-37-113 line was solid. Adding to his stat sheet, Votto worked a career-high 91 walks and also stole 16 bases. His gains from season to season have been normal, so it is logical to project him as an elite player going forward, in this his 27-year old season.
The Bad - Loss of Arthur Rhodes. The Lineup.
The loss of Rhodes should not be underestimated. While I admit re-signing the 40-year old would have been precarious, Cincinnati must also realize the fact that he made 69 appearances last year with a 2.29 ERA. Throw into the equation his ability to be a shutdown lefty specialist and his veteran intangibles to a mostly youthful bullpen, and what you have is a gaping hole. Chapman will step in and provide fire, but his growing pains will provide a sizable stumbling block for the Reds in 2011. Their lineup also has question marks. With Paul Janish replacing Orlando Cabrera at short, offense has been lost. Drew Stubbs has yet to develop into a viable major league hitting option. Brandon Phillips is not the performer that fantasy heads make him out to be, rocking a career .744 OPS. Scott Rolen did make his sixth All-Star appearance last season, but durability issues will hound him in 2011. Something should be said about Jonny Gomes in this section, however, his status as a Tampa Bay Rays Legend, does not permit it.
The Ugly - Dusty Baker destroying young arms.
Exhibit A - Kerry Woods. Exhibit B - Mark Prior. Exhibit C - Edinson Volquez' Tommy John surgery. Exhibit D - Both Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey starting 2011 on the DL with arm injuries. Baker is the kiss of death to young pitchers. I've always pictured Dusty, as a child, tearing the arms off of his G.I. Joe's. And with a fair degree of certainty, I believe this will be the season that a lucky Cincinnati fan will catch a rather unique souvenir in the stands: an actual game-used arm that unhinged itself from Dusty's mismanagement.
Chicago Cubs
The Good - The rotation.
This team really has few bright spots to choose from, which is why I have them slotted for fourth in the Central, but their starting rotation will provide quality innings in 2011. Opening day Starter Ryan Dempster heads up a staff featuring Carlos Zambrano, recently acquired Matt Garza, Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner. Dempster is a lock for pitching 200 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA. Zambrano, who's highly publicized meltdown in 2010, was followed by some time away from the Cubs and then by bullpen duty. However, upon his return to the rotation in early August, the big fella won his final eight decisions and dropped his ERA over two runs, to a formidable 3.33. Matt Garza will be sorely missed by Tampa Bay. Matt delivered his second consecutive season with over 200 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.90s before being dispatched to Chicago for a slew of minor league talent. Randy Wells is a more-than-capable four man, who pitched in nearly 200 innings in 2010, producing a below-league average ERA. Prior to the start of the season, the team opted to eat $11.5 million in salary by dumping Carlos Silva, choosing instead to go ahead with Andrew Cashner in the fifth slot. This speaks volumes to the club's faith in the 24-year old right-hander.
The Bad - Injuries.
This team is decked out with veteran talent. Unfortunately that talent refuses to stay healthy year in and year out. I used to be able to take each of ex-Cub 1B Derrek Lee, LF Alfonso Soriano, and 3B Aramis Ramirez' 162-game schedules and combine them, and then immediately slash 162 games from the total to come up with my guesstimate of what the Cubs' offense could reasonably expect actually from the trio. Of course this estimate only got close in one season, 2009, but the point to my meandering premise is that those guys like to get hurt, and at least one of them would only notch 100 games in a given year. Gone is Derrek Lee, in the fray is Carlos Pena. While Pena, like Lee is far-more healthier than the other two, Pena does have a proclivity towards "freakish" fractures in his fingers (twice in the last three seasons). Not to be outdone by the "triage trio", Geovany Soto opted to play in just over 100 games apiece in both '09 and '10. And not too far from the training room, Kosuke Fukudome, can be found, with an injury rap sheet that dates back to his Nippon days. And then of course, there is Kerry Wood. Initial reports that the league has held secret meanings, in which the idea was kicked around that the MLB would respectfully change the name of its "Disabled List" to the "Kerry Wood Memorial List", after the pitcher's incredible 14 separate stints on the DL, are as of yet unconfirmed.
The Ugly - 102 years. Plus one.
My apologies North Siders, but 2011 will not be the year. No goat to blame. Not even a black cat. No dorks in their headphones tipping fly balls. This disaster has been fueled by poor leadership, primarily by GM Jim Hendry, but lets not dwell on the future. Let's take a look at the past. The 1908 Chicago Base Ball Club featured the likes of a fabled double play combination, an ace with just three and a half suitable digits on his throwing hand, and an outfielder known as Wildfire, a moniker derived from said player's pet horse. The team played it's home games at the second incarnation of the West Side Grounds, meaning this drought is older than the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. The team's pennant hopes received assistance that year by the famed "Merkle's Boner". They squared off against none other than Ty Cobb's Detroit Base Ball Club, in a World Series that only required five games, in what was a fairly dominating performance by the Cubs. Dominance and Cubs have since become antonyms.
Houston Astros
The Good - First two starters and Hunter Pence.
Don't rush to your 2010 standings or anything, but the Astros won 76 games in 2010! After you pick your jaw up off the floor, and towel yourself off from all the sarcasm, I'll explain how all of this happened. After a quick perusal of the 2010 Houston Astros statistics, I have discovered baseball's best kept secret: Brett Myers. Mr. Myers had a 3.14 ERA spread out over 223.2 innings. This is likely only remarkable to me. While I knew about Wandy Rodriguez' impressive 2009 campaign, I thought he'd fallen off the face of the Earth, but found he'd actually logged a solid 3.60 ERA in 195 frames in 2010. Another credit to the Astros organization is one Hunter Pence. He's developed into a decent little ballplayer. He's hit exactly 25 homers in the three consecutive season and sported exactly a .282 batting average over the last two seasons. It's this kind of consistency from the soon-to-be 28-year old right fielder that the Astros must build around. Honorable Mention - Chris Johnson, who's .308 BA was tops among MLB first-year players.
The Bad - The Offense.
Aside from Hunter Pence and Chris Johnson, there is no offense. Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, and Bill Hall were all, at one time or another, big time fantasy cogs, but have since fizzled. The left fielder Lee has seen an inverse relationship blossom between his offensive output and his weight. In 2010, Lee put on his worst showing yet, slugging .417, while failing to maintain an on-base percentage even in the .300s. CF Michael Bourn has gained notoriety in fantasy circles solely based on his ability to steal bases, which he's done rather successfully, leading the league in both '09 and '10. However, his lackluster career OPS+ of 83 may spell the end to Bourn's identity in the Show. Once on Milwaukee's fast track, Bill Hall has since toiled in non-existance. He found some playing time on a beat-up Boston squad in 2010, but made the least of his opportunities. While Hall's OPS+ did break the 100 plateau for the first time since '06, he also managed 104 strikeout in just 344 at-bats. Humberto Quintero will see substantial time behind the plate, which could spell disaster in Houston, as Quintero logged a weak 59 OPS+ in 2010. Rounding out the lineup are a pair of unknown quantities in SS Angel Sanchez and 1B Brett Wallace. With a combined 431 big league PAs between them, it's difficult to say whether or not either will be able to handle Major League pitching in 2011.
The Ugly - Typically I've used this section for the exclusive metaphoric ugliness of a particular franchise. But given the finite ways I can insult someone or something, I've opted for a piece of low-brow aesthetic disfigurement here.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Good - Argggh, Me thinks me mateys are filled to brim with some premium young scalawags!
Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Evan Meek give me optimism for the Pirates' future. Andrew McCutchen is easily the most exciting young talent to emrge from the Steel City since Barry LaMar Bonds. With a similar skill set to a young Bonds, the 24-year old posted his second consecutive season of an OPS+ in the 120s, while also swiping 33 bags. The 25-year old 2B, Walker, placed fifth in Rookie of the Year balloting, after hitting .296 in his freshman campaign. While 3B Pedro Alvarez is the least polished of the three, he's also the youngest. Alvarez bopped 38 XBH in 347 AB at the tender age of 23. Joining this trifecta of young sluggers is setup man Evan Meek. At 27 years of age, Meek posted a stingy 1.050 WHIP and was selected to his first All-Star game in 2010.
The Bad - Leadership.
I don't blame the players for what's going on with this organization. Instead I put the brunt of it on an incapable hierarchy that's constantly in flux. The last eight seasons in Pittsburgh have seen a pair of GMs and no less than five managers. Even more troubling is that the various managements in question, have scarcely allowed the team develop any sort of veteran leadership from within the clubhouse. Let us remember the bizarre events that led to the trades of every single 2008 Opening Day starter in a narrow 15-month window. It is ironic that the team will wear a patch dedicated to the memory of the late Chuck Tanner in 2011, as this will be the closest they come to championship-caliber leadership all season long.
The Ugly - 18 seasons. Add another.
Growing up a Braves fan, I was spoiled with countless runs deep into October, and many unforgettable moments therein. Perhaps none of these recollections are more vivid than Francisco Cabrera's hit to left that barely plated a sliding Sid Bream to capture the pennant in 1992. What a fantastic ending! Unless you were a Pirates fan, of course. After a string of three consecutive playoff appearances prior to that fateful night, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for any Pirates fan to imagine them missing the playoffs over the next season or two. And certainly if they missed the playoffs they would be competitive, right? Here we are 18 years later, the franchise in ruins despite receiving a new stadium in 2001 and spending record amounts on the draft. The franchise has become the definition of loser. Worse than the woeful Tampa Bay Buccaneers that had a losing record for 14 straight seasons in the NFL. Even worse than the abysmal Kansas City/Sacramento Kings of the NBA and the putrid Vancouver Canucks of the NHL, who both were below .500 for 15 consecutive seasons. The Pittsburgh Pirates have become the most hapless of any organization to play in a one of the four major North American sports leagues, stringing together 18 stinkers back-to-back. And what's worse is the fact that they will once again be breaking their own record in 2011.
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