NL East Guesses

Final standings for 2011

Atl - 92

Phi - 90*

Fla - 84

Wash - 75

NYM - 70

* Denotes the Wild Card winner

Atlanta Braves

The Good - Pitching.

The Braves did not sign any big free agents in the offseason, nor do they expect anything unreasonable from the guys they've brought back.  What Atlanta has done, is put together a stellar group of young pitching with a dash of veteran leadership in key spots.  And while no "big" free agents were added, the Braves did add a pair of former All-Star setup men in Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill.  This season's fresh crop of young Braves' pitching consists of Craig Kimbrel, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy.  Kimbrel will be called on to close games in Atlanta, while the latter two are added to an already deep rotation consisting of Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens.  The Braves' staff, while not getting the pageantry of their Philly foes, will likely produce similar, if not better numbers.  Their Bullpen is head and shoulders ahead of anyone in the East, and will play a critical role in their their capturing of the division title in 2011.  Johnny Venters looks to avoid the sophomore slump, after posting a 1.95 ERA in 79 appearances in his rookie season last year.  Peter Moylan returns after posting back-to-back seasons of finishing second in appearances in '09 and '10.  These two combined with Kimbrel, Linebrink and Sherrill will do a solid job shutting down the seventh, eight and ninth innings in 2011.

The Bad - Bench.

This bench is barren.  They return David Ross, Brooks Conrad and Eric Hinske from 2010's Wild Card winners, but too much was made of Conrad and Hinske's abilities.  While Hinske is known for his knack of finding his way into the playoffs, his .256 average displays his knack for being a career bench player. Conrad's four errors in the divisional series set a record, and came at critical junctures in a series the Braves ultimately lost.  Rookies SS Brandon Hicks and OF Matt Young will round out the bench.  Hicks has the only MLB experience of the two, as he went 0-for-5 in 2010.  The Braves start an unknown quantity at first with Freddie Freeman; a sub-Mendoza line hitter in center (Nate McClouth); and three stars that all missed time due to injury in 2010 (Chipper Jones, Martin Prado and Jason Heyward).  This meager group of bench players are likely to be a big let down in Atlanta, who will sorely miss utility man/2010 All-Star Omar Infante.

The Ugly - The End of an Era.

With Bobby Cox moved from the dugout to the front office, Chipper Jones is the last remaining piece of Atlanta's 1995 Worlds Series winner, the only team in their 14-season playoff run to bring home the title.  While Chipper has downplayed previous retirement talks going into 2011, it's a reality that if he has a down year or another injury-plagued campaign, he will be the final domino to fall for the great Braves teams of the 1990s.  He is currently the MLB's longest-tenured player entering his 18th summer in Atlanta.  It is more than likely that his #10 will shortly join Cox' #6 and former teammate's Tom Glavine's #47 and Greg Maddux' #31 up in Turner Field's upper deck.  After last year's push into the playoffs in spite of Chipper's injury, it was most certainly a changing of the guards.  This year's Braves are a different brand, with different faces; lead from the dugout by newcomer Gonzalez and on the field by Jason Heyward.  But to me, I will always envision my Braves with the likes of Mark Lemke, Fred McGriff, Javy Lopez and Chipper taking the field for Tom Glavine or John Smoltz on the mound, with a red-faced Cox barking at the men in blue from his perch in the dugout and by his side, pitching coach Leo Mazzone, frantically rocks away. 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Good - Phantastic Four.

Too easy here.  Roy Halladay.  Cliff Lee.  Roy Oswalt.  Cole Hamels.  The first three rank first, fifth and eight in career winning percentage among active pitchers with over 100 starts.  The fourth guy only has an LCS and a Worlds Series' MVP awards up on his mantle.  Halladay threw a perfect game and the second postseason no-hitter in MLB history to go along with his second Cy Young award last season.  Cliff Lee comes back to Philly, after snubbing the Yankees' bid for his services.  With Lee, the Phillies are getting a pitcher who dominated the AL last season, pacing the league in both complete games and WHIP.  His microscopic 1.003 WHIP in 2010 pales in comparison to his career playoff WHIP of 0.816 in 10 postseason starts.  After pitching in anonymity for the Astros during the first half of 2010, Oswalt joined the Phillies and finished the season by winning seven of eight decisions, leading the NL with a 1.025 WHIP.  Hamels, who many have as the sexy pick for Cy Young this season, will be only 27 years old this season and will make for an outstanding fourth starter.  Like Halladay, Hamels has failed to lead the league in WHIP since 2008, and it's likely he'll hear it from the other two in 2011.  But seriously, these four are likely to combine for around 70 wins this season, and will all be difference-makers come October.  For this very reason I've picked Philadelphia to win the World Series in 2011.

The Bad - The lineup.

Remove Chase Utley from the Philly lineup and all you have is catcher Carlos Ruiz and their free-swinging first baseman Ryan Howard.  Ruiz, who displayed excellent plate discipline in 2010, working 55 walks while striking out only 54 times in 433 trips to the dish, is likely to regress back down towards his career OPS+ of 95.  Howard reduced his strikeouts down to the 150s by virtue of missing time due to injury. Playing full-time without the protection of Utley, for however long he'll be out, will guarantee Howard to notch 200 strikeouts in 2011.  

Those were the bright spots.  

What's left is a mixture of over-the-hill talents.  I'm not 100% sure how GM Ruben Amaro validates the fact that Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez will get the lion's share of reps at critical positions in 2011; but, he does.  Jimmy Rollins continues his fall from grace.  Since his MVP campaign in '07, Rollins has a triple slash of .258/.320/.417.  Best-case scenario maybe if he could  attempt to get injured and miss substantial time, as in 2010.  Polanco managed a .298 average in 2010, but had only 35 extra base hits and 32 walks in 602 plate appearances.  Wilson Valdez will fill in for Utley, and I'm sure that you've never heard of him either.  Maybe it's because the 32-year old sports a 65 career OPS+.  Also, replacing an injured player is Ben Francisco, who is filling in for top prospect Dominic Brown as he recovers from a hand fracture.  Francisco is 29 years old and has yet to figure out how to hit righties.   Raul Ibanez, who showed marked decline in 2010, will turn 39 this season and is likely to continue this downward trend in 2011.  Every spot in this lineup has question marks and until Utley returns they will struggle to score enough runs to contend with the Braves, definitely feeling the loss of Jayson Werth.

The Ugly - Utley's Injury.

When you hear things like "He may never walk right again" and "Surgery is looming", it becomes apparent that the gravity of this situation is bigger than just baseball.  At 32 years of age, Utley is far from a spring chicken, and only got himself into 115 games last season due to injury problems.  With this latest injury, it's time to ask a very real and pertinent question: Have we seen the last great season from Chase Utley?  The five time All-Star owns a career .514 slugging percentage, and before this injury had his name thrown around with the likes of Rogers Hornsby and Joe Morgan.  But after coming up lame yet again, it is time to start looking at what can really be expected from him going forward.  If we are comparing Utley to Hornsby and Morgan, then maybe a comparison should be drawn from that duo.  Utley who has spoiled Philly fans with a career OPS+ at 129, is likely to have difficulty not only sustaining this level but just reaching it ever again.  After they turned 33, Morgan and Hornsby reached the 130-level in OPS+ only three more times, combined, in seasons where they logged at least 450 plate appearances.   With historical perspective provided, it's difficult to realistically expect Utley to have too many more seasons at his previous levels, let alone a single one. 

Florida Marlins 

The Good - Hanley being Hanley.

After winning the batting title in '09, Hanley had a down year in 2010 hitting just .300 with 21 HR and 78 RBI.  It's amazing to me that this guy is only 27 and already boasts three 140+ OPS+ seasons on his stat sheet.  It's equally amazing that he has amassed these numbers while playing at the premiere defensive position in baseball: shortstop.  Yea, yea, his attitude is a detractor, but I imagine it's tough playing for a joke squad like the Marlins, constantly watching your young talent being shipped all over the league.  Like another right-handed Dominican with the last name Ramirez, maybe he will always be hamstringed by his juvenile ways; and perhaps like Manny, he will produce such prodigious offensive numbers that we can find a way to forgive him.

The Bad - Mike Stanton's plate discipline.

While Mike Stanton's power (22 HR in 359 at-bats in '10) got quite a bit of press, even garnering him a video game endorsement, it's his free-swinging ways that will make the slugger slump in his sophomore season.  Stanton jumped from Double-A to the show last year, displaying big league power with a .507 slugging percentage.  However, looming large on his stat sheet, at least to me, were his 123 strikeouts.  While 359 at-bats is a small sample size, we have four seasons of minor league data to comb through to give us a better picture as to what kind of batting eye we can expect from Stanton in 2011.  In 2008, at Single-A, Stanton dropped 153 K's in 468 ABs.  In '09, Stanton split time between high-A ball and Double-A.  However, his strikeout levels remained a constant at both levels, as he stuck out 144 times in 479 ABs.  All signs point to Stanton being overwhelmed in a pitching-heavy NL East this season.

The Uggla Ugly - Field of Schemes.

As yet another All-Star has been shipped off in a maneuver to cut payroll, 2010 also brought many questions as to the management of the Florida Marlins.  After receiving public financing of  $487 million of the necessary $642 million for their new stadium, primarily based around the idea that this team was hemorrhaging cash, both the MLB and the MLBPA launched an examination of exactly how Florida was spending their portion of MLB's revenue sharing.  Based on the league's findings, Florida was reprimanded and was forced into an agreement to spend money.  They begrudgingly did so in the '09-'10 offseason, re-uping Ricky Nolasco for three years at $27.5 million and Josh Johnson at four years, $39 million.  But with the departure of cornerstone 2B Dan Uggla, again Marlins fans are left wondering when the slashes will stop.  Thanks to Deadspin.com, the Marlins have had their dirty laundry aired in quite a public manor.  The website unearthed financials for a handful of baseball teams, and the results were troubling.  Turning a $52 million operating income for the two years of data (highest of the five clubs examined), they also pocketed over $20 million from revenue sharing expressly designated for payroll by skimping on any frills for their roster.  The other teams examined were in compliance, which is why Marlins' fans should be outraged.  After being tricked out of half-a-billion dollars, their favorite ball club maintains its frugal ways and has let another franchise-type player go (to a division rival no less!), proving that these guys will remain on the fringe of relevancy in 2011.

Washington Nationals

The Good - Ryan Zimmerman. 

I could have very easily went with nothing in this slot, but I opted for an easy writeup.  Ryan Zimmerman is the man, both with the glove and with the bat.  He's arguably the best fielding third baseman in the NL despite only receiving one Gold Glove for his efforts ('09).  His UZR/150 reached 17.8 in 2010 and his fielding stats have routinely been top-tier.  To go with the leather, Zimmerman put up a second straight season with an OPS+ over 130, reaching 142 in 2010.  While he was a little dinged up in 2010, expect big numbers from the 26-year old going forward.

The Bad - Ivan Rodriguez.

39-year old catcher Ivan Rodriguez returns for his 21st season in the Show, and his second with the Nationals.  Last season probably should have been last.  In 2010, Pudge posted career lows in hits, HR, and slugging percentage.  His 73 OPS+ in 2010 marked the sixth consecutive season Rodriguez failed to break the century mark in that stat.  While OPS+ doesn't define any future Hall of Famer, it's important to realize that at his advanced age, this downward slope is likely to continue in 2011.  Also, much has been made of Rodriguez' ability to work with young staffs; but, after a 4.13 team ERA in 2010, which was 11th in the league, maybe it's time for people to stop making excuses as to why he deserves a roster spot.  We all know he's just keeping Bryce Harper's spot warm anyways.

The Ugly - Free Agent Signings.

The big pieces brought in by GM Mike Rizzo this past offseason were all wrong.  Every single one.  Rick Ankiel was brought in to play center.  Granted his contract was cheap compared to the other two I'll talk about in this piece, his MLB credentials are dubious.  Four seasons after his conversion to outfielder from the pitching mound, Ankiel has yet to show any reliability with the stick, owning a career 97 OPS+.  Often lauded for his defense, he's posted negative UZRs every season at CF since the conversion, further heightening the mystery as to how he's stuck around so long.  Rizzo also brought in Adam LaRoche, who inked a two-year, $16 million deal.  LaRoche has legit power, but struck out 172 times last year while getting on-base at a lackluster .320 clip.  And in easily his biggest blunder of the offseason, Rizzo locked down RF Jayson Werth to a seven-year deal worth $126 million.  Of all the contracts valued over $100 million in MLB history (that have expired or are near expiration), perhaps only the Albert Pujols' ('04-'10, $100 mil) and Manny Ramirez' ('01-'08 deals, $160 mil) weren't complete meltdowns.  And aside from Alex Rodriguez (who is in his own league as far as these matters are concerned), Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Cliff Lee. Werth is the oldest to negotiate one of these deals.  The Giambi, Brown and Griffey deals were all busts with the verdict still out on A-Rod's newest deal as well as Lee, who signed his mega-contract this offseason.  Given this little tidbit I have to think this may unseat the $136 million promised to Alfonso Soriano as the worst deal in Nationals' history, and I don't think the Cubs will be there to bail them out this time around.

New York Mets

The Good - R.A. Dickey.

While David Wright is definitely a good, he gets too much attention.  What you don't hear enough about are knuckleballers having their breakout seasons at age 35.  This is what happened last season for R.A. Dickey.  Along with the timeless Tim Wakefield, Dickey is the last of a dying breed: the knuckleballer.  Once a pitch thrown by Hall of Famers and former position players looking to catch on anyway they could, the knuckler has lost substantial popularity.  However, Dickey may have helped to revitalized interest in the baffling pitch with his 2010 performance; he put up a 2.84 ERA over 174.1 innings of work.  Dickey, who started only one game in '09, moved into the Mets' rotation, starting 26 games without missing a beat.  Dickey's 2010 performance didn't go unnoticed as the Mets' front office decided to lock him down, inking him to a two-year, $7.8 million deal.  So hopefully we'll get to see Dickey and his signature pitch in the Big Apple for the duration of the deal.

The Bad & The Ugly - I figured I might as well cut to the chase and combine these two portions because in reality, they are one in the same.  It's their injuries and their payroll.  Both just as bad, and as ugly as they come in the MLB.  I dislike the Mets quite a bit and don't care to waste too much of my time or too much of any potential reader's time on them.  Instead, I've raided the brains at both fangraphs.com and bizofbaseball.com for this section, because they are true geniuses in the field of baseball writing and sabermetrics, and have a bit more patience than me.  Fangraphs records data on DL list stays, injury types, etc.  In their findings for 2010, the Mets' total number of injuries was reduced in 2010, however, the amount of cumulative time spent on the DL by their players increased.  The Mets' 929 total days on the disabled list ranked a solid sixth in the majors last season.  

What isn't taken into consideration is the amount of their payroll that sat on the DL for those 929 days.  

Well readers, you are in luck.  Because based on the fangraphs' spreadsheet, the 2010 salary numbers listed over at baseball-reference.com and about 20 minutes of my own personal time on Excel, I calculated this additional consideration.  The Mets doled out $24.3 million for those 929 days.  Let that soak in.  The entire Pittsburgh Pirates' payroll was $34.9 million in 2010.  

This is just part of the issue.  The main problem is the fact that their payroll is insanely high.  They spent the second most in the MLB in 2009, wasting over $149 million.  2010 saw them cut spending to just under $133 million, good for fifth highest in the bigs.  This season they've made payroll cuts again but still spent upwards of $118 million, placing them seventh of the 30 MLB teams.  Now you don't need a formula to find out that the Mets failed to make the playoffs each of the prior two seasons, but you do need one to figure out exactly how much money they've wasted failing to do so.  The guys over at Biz of Baseball have created this clever metric to find out which teams really are getting the bang for their bucks, and those who aren't.  Their invention known as marginal payroll/marginal wins uses the following formula: (club payroll - (28 x major league minimum) / ((winning percentage - .300) x 162).  And according to this measure, the Mets paid the most for each of their wins in '09 and the fourth most for their wins last season.  Looking towards 2011, they have cut payroll again, but their inability to stay healthy and spend correctly will assure their last place finish in the East.