SF - 95
Col - 89
LAD - 80
Ari - 74
SD - 64
San Francisco Giants
The Good - Buster Posey, Brian Wilson and the starting rotation.
Posey became the youngest catcher to hit a World Series bomb since some schmo named Bench. He captured the NL Rookie of the Year, not only with his .305 batting average, but also with his uncanny ability to navigate a rather young staff to a division crown, and ultimately a title. Look for Mauer-esqe numbers from the baby-faced backstop. Moving from one face to the next, it's impossible to miss the mouth mullet draping off Brian Wilson’s. Channeling his inner ZZ top, he gives hitters all his lovin', with straight gas. During the 2010 campaign Wilson amassed 48 saves, tops in the NL. While I'm not a major proponent of this metric, it's interesting to note that during his three full season as the Giants' closer, he has collected 24 saves of an inning or more, tops in the majors. Whether his beard is schtick or substantial, his 11.2 SO/9 is not something to shave anytime soon. I could write a book on this staff. I think I'll try and some up each of the five starters with three words or less, apiece, instead. Tim Linceum - Still underrated. Matt Cain - Even more underrated. Madison Bumgarner - 21 years old. Jonathan Sanchez - Remember that no-no? Barry Zito - Solid fifth starter.
The Bad - Anyone in the batter's box holding a bat not named Posey.
I know what you're thinking. These guys won the World Series, they aren't scrubs with the stick. Well that's where you're wrong. This team had exceptionally well-timed hitting in the playoffs by Cody Ross of all people, and the recently departed Edgar Renteria. Aubrey Huff played solid last year, but has failed to string together back-to-back solid seasons since his days in St. Petersburg, toiling for the Devil Rays. Pablo Sandoval failed to capitalize on his superb 2009, instead he opted to get his weight above his batting average. Which is no small feat considering he hit .268. (actual weight: 278 lbs). Granted Kung Fu Panda, has come to camp at a "trim" 240, it's likely that the league has strategized a way to get him out. Sandoval's BABIP during his first 780 PAs hovered above .350, but last year fell to a more reasonable, and perhaps understated .291. This coupled with a nearly 80 point drop in isolated power indicates Mr. Panda, will likely need to make serious adjustments if he hopes to extend his stay in the majors. This is not all the hitters, but perhaps the critical two aside from Posey. The rest of the lineup is filled with a veteran cast that has quite a few people on the wrong side of 30, and who are also experiencing critical declines including Mark DeRosa, Miguel Tejada, Pat Burrell, Freddy Sanchez and Aaron Rowand, each of whom will log substantial PAs for the Giants in 2011.
The Ugly - Pat Burrell's defense.
If you didn't know, Mr. Burrell was the Golden Spikes recipient way back in 1998, an honor bestowed upon the top baseball player at the collegiate level. This seems impossible to me, because I am fairly certain that Pat does not wear cleats. In fact, it appears that he is, or at least should be, wearing rainboots. Never before has a player been able to simulate playing the field as though it were actually in a wading pool with such precision. Honestly, watching him track the simplest of fly balls seems as though he is swatting at a Viet Cong grenade on some rice paddy forty years some odd years ago. It's so bad, it's almost... no it's just bad actually.
Colorado Rockies
The Good - Tulo, CarGo, Ubaldo. Their bench and their pitching also.
Troy Tulowitzki flat out rakes. A shortstop posting back-to-back 130 OPS+ seasons while capturing a Gold Glove in either of those seasons has happened only three times in the NL since they started giving out Gold Gloes in 1957. The three men: Ernie Bank (HOF '77), Barry Larkin (likely HOF '12) and your boy Troy. Craziest part of all of this: he probably doesn't even have the ceiling that Carlos Gonzales has. While his defense is overrated (Gold Glove vs. -2.7 UZR), his bat is legitimate. Look for a decline in batting average, due in part to his high BABIP in 2010, but understand that the power is legitimate as long as he stays in Rockies' uniform (.357 ISO at Coors Field in 2010), which he is contractually obligated to do until at least 2017. Ubaldo Jimenez is all knees and elbows. And heaters. And curveballs. In fact, he throws curveballs so nasty, they should come with a shot of penicillin. After Jimenez no-hit the Braves last April, Chipper Jones looked as if he were in shock and could barely mutter a comment about domination or something. This is Larry Wayne Jones people, the guy I've modeled my life after. Then imagine a guy just like Jimenez but with a better strikeout per nine inning ratio and four years his junior. They got one of those too. His name: Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin, slated to be the three starter, fills out the rotation along with ex-Ray Jason Hammel, youngster Esmil Rogers and veterans Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa. To go with this rotation, the Rockies bring back three of their late inning bullets. Setup men Matt Belisle (158 ERA+ in 92.0 innings) and Rafael Betancourt (129 ERA+ in 62.1 frames) should provide a sturdy bridge to closer Huston Street. Also, filling out their 25-man roster is a nice collection of bench players to provide them with depth. I've always had a fondness for super-sub/ex-Ray Ty Wiggington, who along with Ryan Spilborghs and pinch runner extraordinaire Eric Young, Jr, gives Jim Tracy options should the injury bug venture a mile high in 2011.
The Bad - 6-8 spots in the batting order. Too young to win this year. Chris Iannetta.
After you get passed the aging relic of greatness and class that is Todd Helton in the five hole, this lineup falls off the table. This is partly based on the age of the starting eight, which has but one person over 30, and four aged 26 or younger. Some may look at this as a positive, I enjoy young ball players too, but when trying to figure what the future holds for this particular franchise my crystal ball remains too clouded for me to favor them for the division title. Blotting out my prognosticative abilities are the bizarre career paths some of the current Rockies are on. And I suppose that Chris Iannetta would be one of these cases studies exemplifying my concern. Penciled in as the every day catcher for 2011, the 28-year old Iannetta has displayed regressive statistics that make me question his actual abilities. After slugging .505 in '08, it fell to .460 in '09 (still remarkable for a catcher!) to .383 last season, resulting in trip to Triple-A Colorado Springs. A single player, and a catcher to boot, typically wouldn't alarm me, however, similar traits can be extracted from the stat sheets of Seth Smith and Jose Lopez, leading me to question what this team will actually play like over the course of an entire summer. If Tracy can motivate the youths, then big things will happen. If they maintain their downward trajectories or show only moderate improvement it will not be enough to unseat the Giants, which is why I have them pegged at second in the NL West.
The Ugly - I think we all know where I'm going with this one. Let's take a ride down a road that reeks of body oil and is littered with narcissism. Of course I speak of the one and only, Jason Giambi. After agreeing to terms with the club on minor league deal this January, it was decided that since a viable mascot for the Colorado ball club had not been found at this point, their 19th season as a franchise, that Giambi would in fact come out for an occasional pinch hit appearance but would now focus his career almost entirely on his alter ego, The Giambino. The character first appears in a fine suit, apparently from hours spent testifying in court. The suit, however, tears away in a manor similar to a tracksuit to reveal the next act. This second act features Giambi, greased up wearing his lucky golden thong, a syringe hanging from his right butt cheek, swindling a feeble, elderly man, identified only as "The Boss", out of $120 million. The third and final act purports a somber, remorseful mustachioed ballplayer taking his last cuts in the bigs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Good - Homegrown Stars.
I envy this franchise's character. A franchise that helped usher in a new era in this great game, by breaking the color barrier in 1947. A franchise that had a Silver Fox roam its outfield ever so gracefully. The same Silver Fox who recently left us to patrol the great outfield in the sky. A franchise that left a borough to start anew in a ravine. A franchise that had a quiet Jewish fellow that could weave perfection, yet threw so violently he nearly lost use of his famed southpaw. A franchise that was maniacal over a flamethrower from south of the border. A franchise that gave us the unforgettable images of an injured MVP, giving all he had for those who bleed Dodger blue, and in one fell swoop of his bat followed by a beleaguered trek to touch all four bases that October night, stained our memories. And a franchise who's voice is entering it's 62nd summer of calling games for the one-time Trolley Dodgers. A voice regal and aged to perfection. A voice that scares the living hell out of any true baseball fan, when we question if this is his last summer behind the microphone.
The Dodgers are an organization steeped in tradition. Starting with Branch Rickey's creation of a deeply layered farm system in 1943, the idea of playing "The Dodger Way" has permeated the boys in blue. Case in point would be the Dodgers' quartet of infielders that stayed together 9 seasons in the 1970s and 1980s. There's a certain aura that emanates from the organization and this generation is not exempt. Number one and number two starters Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, closer Jonathan Broxton, 1B James Loney and OF Matt Kemp were all drafted, developed by LA and have never played an inning in any other team's duds. When you really look at the Dodger's statsheet, save Andre Ethier (himself having only worn Dodger blue at the MLB level), and most of their bullpen, which for most teams is an amalgamation anyways, the current version of the Dodgers have continued the legacy.
The Bad - New Manager. Too old in key spots.
I'm not exactly sure what qualifications Don Mattingly has for being a manager at this level. Certainly some of Joe Torre may have rubbed off on him, but unless Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte are coming to rub themselves all over the Dodgers' 25-man roster, I foresee a shaky first season for the new skipper. While they have developed a young core of franchise-type ball players, the have also provided the team with far too many stopgap-styled veterans to take this squad seriously in 2011. Artifacts include: newly acquired catcher, 35-year old Rod Barajas; new LF, 34-year old Marcus Thames; their jack-of-all-trades 37-year old Jamey Carroll; three starter, 35-year old Ted Lilly; and four starter, 36-year old Hiroki Kiruroda. Add the newly acquired 3B, 32-year old Juan Uribe, who plays "older", due in lard large part to the fact that his playing weight typically exceeds 240 pounds. Plus mainstay, 33-year old SS Rafael Furcal, another of these guys who plays "old", his perdicament being an inability to stay healthy. The sum of these rusty, old parts will not be enough to catch the youth movement that is the NL West.
The Ugly - The divorce of Frank McCourt and Jamie McCourt has and will be a dark cloud looming over the Dodgers' heads. With the courts deciding the team to be split amongst the two, everyone now has two bosses, and two more egomaniacs not able to cough up any substantial money to bolster this lineup. Instead of being peaceable and getting on with their lives, they've opted for a Michael Douglas-Kathleen Turner The War of the Roses scenario to play out, disrupting their good young talent, and holding the team's prestige hostage. What I've envisioned is bold (Jaime McCourt if you're reading this, tell me this concept doesn't burn in your loins) is for Mrs. McCourt to concede her half of the team to her ex-hubby, and in return she can have Andre Ethier as her own personal boytoy. I rarely condone sex slavery, but with Andre's laid back demeanor and those flowing locks of a true playboy, I'm pretty sure he'd be down for just about anything. Jussayin'.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Good – Young talent. I’m not even going to pretend to know much about the Diamondbacks, what I do know is that they do have heaps of young talent, especially in the category of “Brothers of Other MLB Players”. Of course in this category you’ll find Justin Upton, brother of the Rays’ very own B.J. Upton, and Stephen Drew, brother to Red Sox’ OF J.D. Drew. Other talented youngsters include: 2B Kelly Johnson, who has remarkable power for a middle infielder; Chris Young is an interesting power-speed combo; and catcher Miguel Montero, who has more than adequate power capabilities.
The Bad –Zero pitching.
I began typing this section, but my words were sucked away into a black hole that is the Arizona staff. Seriously, very little MLB talent here. Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders are this particular rotation's "never will be", "maybe can be," and "never was", respectively. Kennedy is considered the ace, but would likely be a three starter on most any other team. Hudson has promise after his brief stint in the show last year. Saunders is Jon Garland all over again. The bullpen is haunted by the ghosts of All-Stars past, with J.J. Putz and Mike Hampton's apparitions hanging around throwing bullpen sessions, only to find their way onto the nearest disabled list. Edit - Hampton retired prior to the start of the season.
I began typing this section, but my words were sucked away into a black hole that is the Arizona staff. Seriously, very little MLB talent here. Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders are this particular rotation's "never will be", "maybe can be," and "never was", respectively. Kennedy is considered the ace, but would likely be a three starter on most any other team. Hudson has promise after his brief stint in the show last year. Saunders is Jon Garland all over again. The bullpen is haunted by the ghosts of All-Stars past, with J.J. Putz and Mike Hampton's apparitions hanging around throwing bullpen sessions, only to find their way onto the nearest disabled list. Edit - Hampton retired prior to the start of the season.
The Ugly - The previously mentioned youngsters all have excellent power, both to the gap and out of the yard. However, their aggressive ways have led them to swing quite often. This in itself poses no problem. However, they swing with such ferocity that they miss the ball altogether. Or something we in the biz like to call a strikeout. A “K”. A punchout. Getting blown away. To take one looking. A big whiffa. The 2010 D-backs didn’t just break the single season record for strikeouts by a team, they obliterated it. They toppled the previous mark of 1,399 sit-downs (2001 Milwaukee Brewers) by an additional 130 a-swing-and-a-miss’s. To really give this perspective, Joe Sewell struck out only 114 times in his entire 14-year, Hall of Fame career. Granted that no longer with the club is the single season strikeout Adonis himself, Mark Reynolds. Nor is free-swinging first basemen Adam LaRoche. However, we must not pretend for even a second that anything has changed. There is no revamped lineup with a few new guys who have a keen batter’s eye or discretion on what they should or should not swing at. Every pitch to these guys appears as a donut does to Oprah, or as a chicken wing to Kirstie Alley. Like these two obese specimens of land mammal, the D-backs' young hitters' appetite is insatiable; going throw pitch after pitch, gaining the weight of mounting loses. In fact, every player scheduled to be a starter in 2011, and who has played in over 140 games in a single season, also has multiple 100-strikeout seasons under his belt. And given the time and opportunity, Miguel Montero will likely blossom into yet another. To say that the 2011 Diamondbacks have a propensity for the K, would be like saying that John Wayne Gacy is a bad clown act to book for your son’s 12th birthday party. That joke was in bad taste, which I feel can only be substantiated if I parlay this sentence into a Dahmer joke, but I’ll stop.
San Diego Padres
The Good – They have some truly valuable pitching.
Starters Mat Latos and Clayton Richard can deal as can setup men Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams along with closer Heath Bell. Latos logged 184.2 innings, registering a 2.92 ERA. Richard threw a staff-high 201.2 frames, with an ERA at 4.75. Adams and Gregerson were cornerstones of a bullpen that recorded an MLB record 111 holds in 2010. Assuring the bullpen that their effort’s wouldn’t go in vain, closer Heath Bell was 47-for-50 in save opportunities.
The Bad – The offense.
I can’t point to one person and blame them for what will amount to an abysmal offensive showing in 2011, suffice it to say, it’ll be a true team effort. Only Nick Hundley, the catcher, displayed above average batting numbers based on his position. That means that the Padres will fill out a lineup every night that is likely to feature seven below league average offensive players, a catcher, and a pitcher.
The Ugly – This is a real ugly. Greed.
Forbes recently calculated that the Padres had an operating income of $37 million in 2010 and therefore were the MLB’s most profitable franchise. These findings are in stark contrast to Padres' ownership’s cries of necessary frugality for the small market club and their subsequent doling out of a measly $38 million in payroll in 2010 and just $45 million for 2011. It’s not that I’m against turning profit. What I am against is how one franchise’s poor leadership may jeopardize the funding received by fellow small market teams. Funds, which are necessary subsidies to maintain the league's competitive balance and marketability, and funds that typically have been properly reinvested into the building and maintenance of quality sports franchises by the majority of those receiving them. Cough, my Rays, Cough.
No comments:
Post a Comment