Just two weeks into the minor league season and the Rays bevy of young talent has already shown the glimmers of hope that netted the organization the second best farm system ranking according to the scouting gurus at Baseball America.
With that being said, 15 games is entirely too small of a sample size to get off on. I must also preface this bit with a disclaimer as to my actual scouting/MLB talent evaluation credibility; it's nonexistent. My research techniques included googling "baseball america top prospects rays" and "rays minor league affiliates". However, this is likely more than anyone reading this has done.
One final set of notes. I am not discussing career Quadruple-A guys like Mike Eckstrom and Justin Ruggiano. Instead, I really just want to take a look at young guys and what they're progress is within the organization. I won't be talking about Jeremy Hellickson or Jake McGee as they are already contributing to the parent club. And top prospects/2010 first-rounders Josh Sale, Justin O'Conner and Drew Vittleson will begin their season at Rookie ball next month with the Princeton Rays, so I'll hold off on discussing them until they begin play.
What I have left, is a dirty dozen of ball players that I'll be monitoring throughout their minor league endeavors in 2011. Players are listed with their current position, expected time of arrival to the majors and their preseason rank within the Rays organization, according to Baseball America, in parenthesis.
12. Robinson Chirinos - C - ETA 2011 (18) - Picked up in the Garza-Cubs trade, the 26-year old destroyed minor league pitching at Double and Triple-A last season in the Cubs system, posting a stout .326/.416/.583 line. So far in 2011, Chirinos has seen a slow start, batting just .192/.276/.192 in 52 ABs at Durham. His career numbers and age plus his battle with Durham's incumbent catcher, Jose Lobaton, could prevent him from making a splash in St. Pete, but his stats in 2010 make him a point of interest.
11. Nick Barnese - RHP - ETA 2013 (15) - Barnese is a control artist who features a fastball with a ton of movement. He's just 22 years of age and already holds a career 2.94 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP in 312.0 innings of minor league ball. Though he's off to a slow start at Double-A Montgomery (6.39 ERA in 3 starts), his main problem in reaching the majors is the glut of pitchers ahead of him in the organization.
10. Jake Thompson - RHP - ETA 2013 (13) - After posting a solid 1.06 ERA in 51.0 innings at Advanced-A ball, Thompson has returned to Charlotte, posting a solid 4.05 ERA in his first 3 starts of the season. At 21, Thompson has a big frame (6'3", 225) and a big fastball (tops out at 97 MPH) that he may be able to ride to the bigs. However, his slider is considered 3rd best among current Rays prospects and has him on my radar.
9. Alex Colome - RHP - ETA 2013 (9) - Colome is 22-years old and features the organization's top right-handed fastball. He used the pitch to strikeout 126 batters in only 118 frames last season. This season his strikeout rate has fallen a bit and he's sporty an unnervingly high 7.64 ERA through his first four starts at Advanced-A Charlotte. In his defense, the ERA is skewed from his 2011 debut in which he went just 1.2 innings, yielding 7 earned. He's surrendered 8 earned runs in his last three outings.
8. Alex Cobb - RHP - ETA 2012 (20) - Yet another right-hander is the 23-year old Cobb, who mowed down more than a batter an inning and donned a 2.71 ERA for the Double-A Biscuits in 2010. Cobb uses a plus changeup with solid control to keep hitters guessing. Parlaying his 2010 success, Cobb has a 2.05 ERA through his first four starts with Durham. His ETA is 2012 based, in part, to the fact that his stuff isn't overwhelming.
7. Tim Beckham - SS - ETA 2012 (19) - After garnering an ungodly $6.15 million signing bonus, Beckham has also garnered the tag of "bust". While it's unlikely he'll ever live up to the one-time hype, he possesses the typical athletic abilities that we love in our Rays. He hit just .256 at Single-A in 2010, displaying zero power (.359 slug.) and poor plate discipline (119 K's in 465 ABs). However, at just 21 years of age, Beckham may still develop into a Major Leaguer. At Double-A this season, he's hitting .286 and slugging .444. His ETA is 2012, but he may never even make the bigs. I admit that the only reason I have him included here is because he is a former #1 overall pick and we've invested a substantial amount of money in him.
6. Alex Torres - LHP - ETA 2011 (7) - Torres is the 23-year old lefty we picked up in the Kazmir-Anges deal back in '09. Last season, he averaged more than a strikeout per inning and posted a 3.47 ERA at Triple-A Durham. Torres possesses a Major League-ready changeup to accompany a plus fastball. In 2011, Torres has been unhittable, boasting a microscopic 0.848 WHIP to go along with a chintzy 0.59 ERA, earning him Pitcher of the Week honors for the Bulls. Granted, this is a small sample size, I'm encouraged by the fact that the Rays added him to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid anyone trying to snatch him up in the Rule 5 Draft, displaying to me that they have confidence in his ability to give something to the big league club as soon as 2011.
5. Chris Archer - RHP - ETA 2012 (4) - At 22, Archer was the centerpiece of the prospect-laden Garza deal. At High-A and Double-A last year, he put up a solid 2.34 ERA. His slider grades out as the best among Rays prospects, which along with his plus fastball and sizable frame (6'3", 185), have generated national recognition for his future. So far in 2011, Archer has battled with his long running control issues, thus giving him a rather high 6.39 ERA at Double-A Montgomery. Too early to make any guesses, but I suspect the Rays will coddle his young arm and he could have an impact on the MLB team as early as 2012.
4. Brandon Guyer - RF - ETA 2011 (12) - Another piece from the Garza heist, the 25-year old Guyer owns a career .296/.355/.472 triple slash in the minors. Guyer has also displayed steady defense and solid speed (60 SB vs. 10 CS in '09-'10). He's lit up Triple-A to the tune of .358/.411/.627 so far in 2011, and may give Desmond Jennings a run for his money should a spot open up in the Rays outfield in the near future.
3. Hak-Ju Lee - SS - ETA 2012 (8) - Yet another portion of the plunder taken from the Garza deal is the 20-year old South Korean. Considered amongst the top gloveman in the Rays ranks, Lee also owns a .302 average in 777 minor league ABs. Power has been a concern (.386 career SLG), but with a 6'2", 170 lb frame, it's likely he just hasn't grown into his power stroke yet. He grades out as the organization's best hitter for average and also has plus speed. At Charlotte this season, he's torched High-A pitching with a .393/.469/.679 line thus far. It's a foregone conclusion that he will catch Tim Beckham at Double-A and unseat him as the SS there, due to Lee's far-slicker fielding. With the team already having shopped Reid Brignac in various trade scenarios over the Winter, Lee could claim the Rays job as soon as 2012. Some are saying he's already a "stronger-armed version of Omar Vizquel," but I would like to give him at least one more season of seasoning before we start casting his bust for Cooperstown.
2. Desmond Jennings - CF - ETA 2011 (3) - After being sent down for additional hacks in the minors, Jennings has started slow in Triple-A (.266/.413/.391), but his pedigree and solid career numbers land him as my top position player prospect going forward. While he's been unfairly compared to Carl Crawford, Jennings skill set is filled to the brim at every tool sans power. He likely won't move B.J. Upton from center, but could be in the Rays lineup at any point this season. He's displayed plate discipline beyond his 24 years, and his plus speed and baserunning make him an ideal candidate for the leadoff spot. Injuries hampered his 2010 output, but I am enthusiastic at the prospect of adding him to the Rays roster as soon as possible.
1. Matt Moore - LHP - ETA 2011 (2) - At 21, Moore has feasted on weaklings in the minors. His fastball and curve grade out as the best among all Rays prospects. However, and bizarrely enough, Moore has already earned the label "slow-starter", struggling early on in both 2009 and 2010 seasons to find his dominant self. Staying true to the trend, Moore has a 5.89 ERA through his first four starts this season at Double-A. I'm not deterred because this kid is scary good. Scary good. In 2010, he was the first minor leaguer to strikeout 200 batters since Francisco Liriano did so in 2005. His dizzyingly-high SO/9 ratio has hovered around 13 since he's started pitching professionally. He's being touted as an early-'00s Barry Zito, with a better fastball. This guy will likely buzz down batters at Double-A and earn a call up this September, potentially replacing Jeff Niemann by 2012 in the Rays rotation.
Honorable Mention: Derek Dietrich - SS - ETA 2013 (26) - Coming from a Georgia Tech baseball program that has produced Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek, Mark Teixeira and Matt Weiters over the past couple of decades, Dietrich has garnered marginal consideration from Baseball America, who ranked him as just the 26th best prospect currently in the Rays system. With 2010 being his first season of professional ball, the 21-year old shortstop posted a respectable .279/.340/.419 line for the Short Season Single-A Hudson Valley Renegades. This showing earned him a bump up to the Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods, where he has flat-out raked, putting up a .340/.400/.660 triple slash so far this season. While it's impossible to forecast him doing absolutely anything, it's not impossible to see him as yet another shortstop who laps Tim Beckham in the Rays organizational rungs. Since I have not discussed many players below the Double-A, level I opted to give my honorable mention nod to Dietrich.
As mentioned above, each of these guys' 2011 stats should be taken with a grain of salt. But also realize that each of my top 12 has logged multiple seasons of professional ball and the scouts (not just me) love 'em. It's pretty damned exciting seeing this much premium talent bubbling just beneath the big league surface. As a Rays fan, you can't help but think that if we can retain a team in the Tampa Bay Area beyond 2012, that it will likely be a competitive group of youngsters, much like the '08 and '10 AL East champion versions of the Rays.
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