The Rays' Opening Day was a doozy. Jeremy Guthrie required only 94 pitches to shut the Rays down for eight innings. Apparently, he's the first Orioles starter to toss eight shutout innings in a season opener since Rick Sutcliffe in 1992. Either way, I left the game scratching my head, wondering did I really miss the fourth through seventh innings searching for The Trop's vaunted Heater hot dog. I found my dog. And some ice cream. And an Italian sausage, with the peppers and the onions, baby! What I was left with was indigestion and a half-hour wait in St. Petersburg traffic, and all that by 9:30 PM EST. Guthrie is about as talented as they come, so it's no surprise that he pitched a gem. But I digest digress. Per my last post, and only about a day and a half late, are my preseason predictions. I figured if anyone actually ever reads this, it'll be like minded friends of mine, which is why my first team critique will be my hometown Rays. After them, I've decided to pay homage to a little known actor, Clint Eastwood. I figure everyone deserves their big break and why not give that guy some much needed press via my bustling blog. I'll be breaking down each MLB squad divided into sections containing their individual good, bad and ugly aspects. So on to the Rays, and then everyone else...
Ahhh My Rays. Hmm. I'd love to give them the typical homer write up here, but I mean, when your biggest offseason additions were key contributors to a World Series winner over half a decade removed, not even Edmond Dantes could maintain hope for an October appearance in 2011. Enough of my pretentious 19th century French literature references. Here's the cold, hard facts:
For starters, we've lost our entire bullpen sans Andy Sonnanstine, the always-valuable spot starter and long relief pitcher. We've picked up pieces here and there via trades and signings. These fresh faces include Kyle Farnsworth, who looks to close games and Joel Peralta in the 8th inning role. Also in the fold is wunderkind Jake McGee, who made the club out of spring training, surrounded by plenty of hype. These three plus a midseason return of J.P. Howell, and the additions of Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were brought in from San Diego as part of the Jason Bartlett deal, will be called on to keep games close in the late innings of 2011. In spite of de facto GM Andrew Friedman’s best efforts, this ragtag bunch hardly mitigates the bullpen’s losses of Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, and Grant Balfour.
Our rotation has taken a step back by losing Matt "Only No Hitter in Franchise History" Garza and by keeping James "Big Lame" Shields, but Cy Young runner-up David Price is back to anchor the staff. Price will find it difficult to get much better than his 2010 season, but studying his stats, and not just the more-than ESPN-worthy 19 wins and 2.72 ERA over 208 and 1/3 innings, his true value can be gleaned. Comparing his peripheral stats for his first two full big league seasons, his BB/9 shot down, while his SO/9 and SO/BB shot up, indicate that this kid not only has the natural ability to get Major League hitters out, but the brains to constantly adjust and keep hitters guessing. It was a tough pill to swallow when Felix Hernandez was issued the 2010 Cy Young award, while pitching in obscurity in Seattle, and lacking the pressure cooker that is a pennant race. However, it is my firm belief that Price will eventually make it very difficult for the BBWAA to snub him for hardware going forward. Aside from Price and Sheilds, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis return with Jeremy Hellickson getting the nod to replace Matt Garza in the rotation. The latter three will deliver better performances this year, assuming their learning curves are as steep as the typical prospects produced by the Rays’ farm system.
This year’s offense is dubious. Relying on two Red Sox legends of yore in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez is a testament to ownership’s concerted effort to squeeze the extra 2% out of the payroll. But paying the “doddering duo” only $7.25 million in base salary hardly seems like the right move to clinch back-to-back division titles. With top prospect Desmond Jennings sent down to the minors for additional seasoning, the fourth outfielder will be Matt Joyce, who displayed major power potential last season, slugging .477. His role will likely be far more valuable than that of a fourth outfielder, filling in the void likely to come from a midseason meltdown by either of the doddering duo. Let’s remember that in 2010 Damon was primarily used as a DH, getting only 35 starts in limited OF duties for Detroit. With Manny clogging up the DH, Damon’s 15-season streak of 140 games played is in serious doubt. All this further highlights Matt Joyce’s role. Expect Ben Zobrist to bounce back after a poor showing in 2010, maybe not quite to the tune of his ’09 All-Star showing but certainly closer to his career 106 OPS+ vs. 2010’s 95. B.J. Upton is back for another season in centerfield, this time without the speedy Carl Crawford to his right, cleaning up his occasional bouts with lackadaisical effort. This kid has the talent to be a perennial All-Star, but to this point is only relevant because his name is used for fellatio puns during my buddies’ late inning, beer-driven riff sessions. With more defined roles for our young middle infielders Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac, Joe Maddon is likely to use considerably less than 129 different lineups this season. This leads me to believe that we should certainly expect both to excel in these more concrete roles for 2011.
Any true baseball nerd will tell you that the Rays will be returning 2010’s most valuable position player, according to the wonderful metric WAR, in Evan Longoria. As Evan goes, so go the Rays. While it’s difficult to project him being that valuable again (worth 7.7 wins above replacement in 2010), he is still young at 25, and really just getting his feet wet in the league. Not even another MVP-caliber performance from Longo would be enough to validate Dan Johnson’s abysmal bat in the lineup. With the departure of Carlos Pena to the Cubs, DJ will get his chance at first and I’m extraordinarily bearish on his real capabilities. His hands aren’t as soft as Pena’s; his eyes aren’t as keen for drawing the walk either. And apparently I wasn’t the only one that noticed. Rays’ brass made a last ditch effort at getting a legitimate first baseman by signing former Seminole High great Casey Kotchman to a minor league deal. After a strong showing this Spring, .354/.415/.521, it was decided Kotchman would start the season at Triple-A Durham. I imagine that if and when Johnson falters, Kotchman will be there to take over. John Jaso was a major contributor last season, his rookie season, with a robust .372 OBP. I look for him to maintain his eye, defense and base running abilities, ideally keeping Kelly Shoppach’s catching gear in the clubhouse. Shoppach, last seen throwing the Rays’ playoff hopes into leftfield, is a true miracle. How does the only man in MLB history to log fewer than 160 AB’s but strikeout greater than 70 times maintain a spot on any MLB roster? Like I said true miracle. His actual stats were 71 K’s in 158 at-bats. Miracle.
I see a lot more right than wrong here, however, we play in a tough division that will be a full, 162-game grind. Without the financial capabilities available to almost every other pertinent AL club, it's difficult to see the lineup picking up a game-changer at any point this season, while it's almost assured that both of the evil empires in our division will ransack the also-rans on or around July 31st. This is why I have the Rays pegged for a second place finish in the AL East, and falling a couple games short for the Wild Card.
Here's the remainder of my predictions, which like any preseason guesswork, should be taken with a grain of salt.
AL
East
Boston - 95 wins
Rays - 88
NYY - 86
Bal - 80
Tor - 76
Central
Minn - 91
CWS - 90*
Det - 83
Cle - 71
KC - 64
West
LAA - 88
Oak - 84
Tex - 81
Sea - 68
MVP - Robinson Cano
Cy Young - John Lester
ROY - Jake McGee
NL
East
Atl - 92
Phi - 90*
Fla - 84
Wash - 75
NYM - 70
Central
Mil - 89
STL - 86
Cin - 84
Chi - 81
Hou - 68
Pitt - 62
West
SF - 95
Col - 89
LAD - 80
Ari - 74
SD - 64
MVP - Troy Tulowitzki
Cy Young - Josh Johnson
ROY - Freddie Freeman
Postseason
ALDS
Bos def. CWS in 5
Minn def. LAA in 4
ALCS
Bos def. Minn in 6
NLDS
Phi def. SF in 5
Atl def. Mil in 4
NLCS
Phi def. Atl in 5
World Series
Phi def. Bos in 6
***PLEASE NOTE***
These predictions were made prior to Opening Day. So it's not like I went to tonight's game and bailed. My baseball consigliere, Dan Fernandez, can vouch for the authenticity of these prognostications.
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